Don’t buy for a minute that Robert Toll is “surprised and shocked” by the sudden drop in demand for homes.
He saw the softness back in 04, and has sold close to $300 million in stock since then, mostly since spring 05.
In the last week of June, the company insiders got serious about dumping their shares. Barzilay sold $27 mil, Shapiro $ 15.8 mil, Rassman $5 mil, and Robert Blank $8 mil. That week, Robert Toll sold $150 mil of his stock. I guess the summer of 2005 it really hit them: housing’s gone bust.
This tells me: the insiders are expecting the stock to keep going down. So do I.
In December 1990, Toll was trading for $2.63/share. Today it’s just over $26. I think it has a good shot at going down to $2/share by 2008.
Why don’t I short it then? Because of goons like Bill Miller, who are going to start buying it up and causing some rallies inbetween, because most options expire worthless, and because I the only way I would go short is if a trader or financial advisor with experience in shorting would advise me further. But I’m putting my name behind my prediction.
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