Timing the Bottom

[sdrealtor]

We are still somewhere between denial and fear.

[sdrealtor]

We are still somewhere between denial and fear.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

RatherOpinionated –

I welcome discussion and think you actually made some reasonable points to which I wish to counter.
However, I wanted to be clear to whom I am conversing with before starting a discussion. Using multiple monikers is simply rude, since it confuses the dialog and is often used as a smokescreen by disingenuous posters.

Now, to your point …
One interesting difference about real estate timing versus stocks is the pace at which things happen. When the market holds 13 months of inventory, it usually takes a long time of increasing sales pace to sufficiently draw down the inventory to the point where market reaches equilibrium and starts rising again. In stocks these turns can happen on a time scale of hours, days, weeks. In real estate the time scale is months/years.

If you have indications of increasing sales necessary to burn off the excess inventory I would love to see it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

RatherOpinionated –

I welcome discussion and think you actually made some reasonable points to which I wish to counter.
However, I wanted to be clear to whom I am conversing with before starting a discussion. Using multiple monikers is simply rude, since it confuses the dialog and is often used as a smokescreen by disingenuous posters.

Now, to your point …
One interesting difference about real estate timing versus stocks is the pace at which things happen. When the market holds 13 months of inventory, it usually takes a long time of increasing sales pace to sufficiently draw down the inventory to the point where market reaches equilibrium and starts rising again. In stocks these turns can happen on a time scale of hours, days, weeks. In real estate the time scale is months/years.

If you have indications of increasing sales necessary to burn off the excess inventory I would love to see it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

RatherOpinionated –

I welcome discussion and think you actually made some reasonable points to which I wish to counter.
However, I wanted to be clear to whom I am conversing with before starting a discussion. Using multiple monikers is simply rude, since it confuses the dialog and is often used as a smokescreen by disingenuous posters.

Now, to your point …
One interesting difference about real estate timing versus stocks is the pace at which things happen. When the market holds 13 months of inventory, it usually takes a long time of increasing sales pace to sufficiently draw down the inventory to the point where market reaches equilibrium and starts rising again. In stocks these turns can happen on a time scale of hours, days, weeks. In real estate the time scale is months/years.

If you have indications of increasing sales necessary to burn off the excess inventory I would love to see it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

RatherOpinionated –

I welcome discussion and think you actually made some reasonable points to which I wish to counter.
However, I wanted to be clear to whom I am conversing with before starting a discussion. Using multiple monikers is simply rude, since it confuses the dialog and is often used as a smokescreen by disingenuous posters.

Now, to your point …
One interesting difference about real estate timing versus stocks is the pace at which things happen. When the market holds 13 months of inventory, it usually takes a long time of increasing sales pace to sufficiently draw down the inventory to the point where market reaches equilibrium and starts rising again. In stocks these turns can happen on a time scale of hours, days, weeks. In real estate the time scale is months/years.

If you have indications of increasing sales necessary to burn off the excess inventory I would love to see it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

RatherOpinionated –

I welcome discussion and think you actually made some reasonable points to which I wish to counter.
However, I wanted to be clear to whom I am conversing with before starting a discussion. Using multiple monikers is simply rude, since it confuses the dialog and is often used as a smokescreen by disingenuous posters.

Now, to your point …
One interesting difference about real estate timing versus stocks is the pace at which things happen. When the market holds 13 months of inventory, it usually takes a long time of increasing sales pace to sufficiently draw down the inventory to the point where market reaches equilibrium and starts rising again. In stocks these turns can happen on a time scale of hours, days, weeks. In real estate the time scale is months/years.

If you have indications of increasing sales necessary to burn off the excess inventory I would love to see it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Nice cycle chart.

I think we are clearly well past the denial stage.
I’d say we are squarely between the fear/desperation stage.

Some time in 2008 … Capitulation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Nice cycle chart.

I think we are clearly well past the denial stage.
I’d say we are squarely between the fear/desperation stage.

Some time in 2008 … Capitulation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Nice cycle chart.

I think we are clearly well past the denial stage.
I’d say we are squarely between the fear/desperation stage.

Some time in 2008 … Capitulation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Nice cycle chart.

I think we are clearly well past the denial stage.
I’d say we are squarely between the fear/desperation stage.

Some time in 2008 … Capitulation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Nice cycle chart.

I think we are clearly well past the denial stage.
I’d say we are squarely between the fear/desperation stage.

Some time in 2008 … Capitulation.

[RatherOpinionated]

FormerSanDiegan you are absolutely correct and I am not trying to prove otherwise. It may have come across that way, but I concur with you – however I also feel that perhaps we may see a more protracted period of flat real estate prices from here, rather than a continued steep decline. Time value of money or otherwise, “we’re closer to a bottom in prices than we are to the top”

[RatherOpinionated]

FormerSanDiegan you are absolutely correct and I am not trying to prove otherwise. It may have come across that way, but I concur with you – however I also feel that perhaps we may see a more protracted period of flat real estate prices from here, rather than a continued steep decline. Time value of money or otherwise, “we’re closer to a bottom in prices than we are to the top”

[RatherOpinionated]

FormerSanDiegan you are absolutely correct and I am not trying to prove otherwise. It may have come across that way, but I concur with you – however I also feel that perhaps we may see a more protracted period of flat real estate prices from here, rather than a continued steep decline. Time value of money or otherwise, “we’re closer to a bottom in prices than we are to the top”

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