Time to buy the stock market?

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

These definitions are for people who don’t trade that try to sound smart at cocktail parties. If you were shorting stocks from 12000 to 14000 in the DOW and lost everything you owned would it be any comfort that some geek economist who never made a dime trading told you it was a secular bear market?

Is the trend up or down, if it is up buy if it is down sell, this kicking sand back and forth in the sandbox over these definitions is a waste of time.

Also the comment about the top double breakdown retracing to the prior recent breakout point being a 75% accurate pattern is absolute hogwash. Where do people come up with this kind of thing? That just could not be more subjective. Under what parameters would that be? I can tell people who read in here that I have studied or developed myself hundreds of systems and it is very difficult to get a general pattern like that to a level of accuracy anywhere near that without curve fitting data so much that it guarantees failure in real time. A specific example is the trading system I used to get that third place finish in the Robbins contest two years ago that many people in here were aware of. It traded with 80% accuracy for 3 years, now it does not work at all. This is typical for patterns. To point out a breakdown from a double top as that likely to retrace to that level is just absurd. I would be willing to bet that if you looked at all the double tops that broke the shoulder line, less than half of them retraced to that level that was stated in that post unless of course your timeline was 50 years on the trade.

The only patterns that are that accurate in the markets are those defined with several variables and even then most if not all fail to deliver that level of accuracy in real time trading.

I should just bite my tongue and usually do when I read this stuff in here and other places, but I do feel compelled at times to try and help people who do not live in this world of trading, from being misguided by this kind of chatter.

[4plexowner]

If you go and dig up my posts from mid-2008 you will see that I was saying to get out of ALL paper assets

Leaving $$$ in a 401K, regardless of whether the $$$ are sitting in equities or a cash fund, leaves an investor in paper

Part of the strategy here is to eliminate as many middle men as possible that are sitting between you and your $$$ – it is impossible to tell at this point which bank / brokerage / etc is going broke next so the only defense is to get out of them all

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value

IMO about 70% of the current world of paper assets are going to disappear in the next few years – equities, bonds, annuities, etc – this paper sits in 401Ks, IRAs, pension funds, retirement accounts, college investment funds, etc – we’re already well on our way with the trillions of dollars of stock and real estate equity that have disappeared

One of the keys to successful investing is being able to sleep at night – if you can sleep comfortably with your $$$ sitting in paper then continue to do so – if you’re comfortable with the guarantees provided by FDIC and SIPC, more power to you – I’m not comfortable in paper right now so I have minimized my exposure to paper investments

~

Yes, the penalty for early withdrawal is 10% – the proceeds from the 401K are then taxed as regular income

[4plexowner]

If you go and dig up my posts from mid-2008 you will see that I was saying to get out of ALL paper assets

Leaving $$$ in a 401K, regardless of whether the $$$ are sitting in equities or a cash fund, leaves an investor in paper

Part of the strategy here is to eliminate as many middle men as possible that are sitting between you and your $$$ – it is impossible to tell at this point which bank / brokerage / etc is going broke next so the only defense is to get out of them all

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value

IMO about 70% of the current world of paper assets are going to disappear in the next few years – equities, bonds, annuities, etc – this paper sits in 401Ks, IRAs, pension funds, retirement accounts, college investment funds, etc – we’re already well on our way with the trillions of dollars of stock and real estate equity that have disappeared

One of the keys to successful investing is being able to sleep at night – if you can sleep comfortably with your $$$ sitting in paper then continue to do so – if you’re comfortable with the guarantees provided by FDIC and SIPC, more power to you – I’m not comfortable in paper right now so I have minimized my exposure to paper investments

~

Yes, the penalty for early withdrawal is 10% – the proceeds from the 401K are then taxed as regular income

[4plexowner]

If you go and dig up my posts from mid-2008 you will see that I was saying to get out of ALL paper assets

Leaving $$$ in a 401K, regardless of whether the $$$ are sitting in equities or a cash fund, leaves an investor in paper

Part of the strategy here is to eliminate as many middle men as possible that are sitting between you and your $$$ – it is impossible to tell at this point which bank / brokerage / etc is going broke next so the only defense is to get out of them all

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value

IMO about 70% of the current world of paper assets are going to disappear in the next few years – equities, bonds, annuities, etc – this paper sits in 401Ks, IRAs, pension funds, retirement accounts, college investment funds, etc – we’re already well on our way with the trillions of dollars of stock and real estate equity that have disappeared

One of the keys to successful investing is being able to sleep at night – if you can sleep comfortably with your $$$ sitting in paper then continue to do so – if you’re comfortable with the guarantees provided by FDIC and SIPC, more power to you – I’m not comfortable in paper right now so I have minimized my exposure to paper investments

~

Yes, the penalty for early withdrawal is 10% – the proceeds from the 401K are then taxed as regular income

[4plexowner]

If you go and dig up my posts from mid-2008 you will see that I was saying to get out of ALL paper assets

Leaving $$$ in a 401K, regardless of whether the $$$ are sitting in equities or a cash fund, leaves an investor in paper

Part of the strategy here is to eliminate as many middle men as possible that are sitting between you and your $$$ – it is impossible to tell at this point which bank / brokerage / etc is going broke next so the only defense is to get out of them all

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value

IMO about 70% of the current world of paper assets are going to disappear in the next few years – equities, bonds, annuities, etc – this paper sits in 401Ks, IRAs, pension funds, retirement accounts, college investment funds, etc – we’re already well on our way with the trillions of dollars of stock and real estate equity that have disappeared

One of the keys to successful investing is being able to sleep at night – if you can sleep comfortably with your $$$ sitting in paper then continue to do so – if you’re comfortable with the guarantees provided by FDIC and SIPC, more power to you – I’m not comfortable in paper right now so I have minimized my exposure to paper investments

~

Yes, the penalty for early withdrawal is 10% – the proceeds from the 401K are then taxed as regular income

[4plexowner]

If you go and dig up my posts from mid-2008 you will see that I was saying to get out of ALL paper assets

Leaving $$$ in a 401K, regardless of whether the $$$ are sitting in equities or a cash fund, leaves an investor in paper

Part of the strategy here is to eliminate as many middle men as possible that are sitting between you and your $$$ – it is impossible to tell at this point which bank / brokerage / etc is going broke next so the only defense is to get out of them all

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value

IMO about 70% of the current world of paper assets are going to disappear in the next few years – equities, bonds, annuities, etc – this paper sits in 401Ks, IRAs, pension funds, retirement accounts, college investment funds, etc – we’re already well on our way with the trillions of dollars of stock and real estate equity that have disappeared

One of the keys to successful investing is being able to sleep at night – if you can sleep comfortably with your $$$ sitting in paper then continue to do so – if you’re comfortable with the guarantees provided by FDIC and SIPC, more power to you – I’m not comfortable in paper right now so I have minimized my exposure to paper investments

~

Yes, the penalty for early withdrawal is 10% – the proceeds from the 401K are then taxed as regular income

[davelj]

[quote=4plexowner]

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value
[/quote]

If you got the part above so obviously wrong, then I must cast suspicion on the rest of your post(s) as well. If the FDIC and/or SIPC run out of funds, they will borrow enough funds from the Treasury to make everyone whole, just as the FDIC did during the S&L crisis. The FDIC will raise deposit insurance premiums (as they already have) on the surviving banks to pay the Treasury back and replenish the fund (just as they did during the S&L crisis). The SIPC will increase fees to their member brokerage firms to achieve the same ends as the FDIC. That you don’t know this tells me just how little you know about how the financial world works. So do you really expect anyone to take the rest of your post seriously?

[davelj]

[quote=4plexowner]

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value
[/quote]

If you got the part above so obviously wrong, then I must cast suspicion on the rest of your post(s) as well. If the FDIC and/or SIPC run out of funds, they will borrow enough funds from the Treasury to make everyone whole, just as the FDIC did during the S&L crisis. The FDIC will raise deposit insurance premiums (as they already have) on the surviving banks to pay the Treasury back and replenish the fund (just as they did during the S&L crisis). The SIPC will increase fees to their member brokerage firms to achieve the same ends as the FDIC. That you don’t know this tells me just how little you know about how the financial world works. So do you really expect anyone to take the rest of your post seriously?

[davelj]

[quote=4plexowner]

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value
[/quote]

If you got the part above so obviously wrong, then I must cast suspicion on the rest of your post(s) as well. If the FDIC and/or SIPC run out of funds, they will borrow enough funds from the Treasury to make everyone whole, just as the FDIC did during the S&L crisis. The FDIC will raise deposit insurance premiums (as they already have) on the surviving banks to pay the Treasury back and replenish the fund (just as they did during the S&L crisis). The SIPC will increase fees to their member brokerage firms to achieve the same ends as the FDIC. That you don’t know this tells me just how little you know about how the financial world works. So do you really expect anyone to take the rest of your post seriously?

[davelj]

[quote=4plexowner]

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value
[/quote]

If you got the part above so obviously wrong, then I must cast suspicion on the rest of your post(s) as well. If the FDIC and/or SIPC run out of funds, they will borrow enough funds from the Treasury to make everyone whole, just as the FDIC did during the S&L crisis. The FDIC will raise deposit insurance premiums (as they already have) on the surviving banks to pay the Treasury back and replenish the fund (just as they did during the S&L crisis). The SIPC will increase fees to their member brokerage firms to achieve the same ends as the FDIC. That you don’t know this tells me just how little you know about how the financial world works. So do you really expect anyone to take the rest of your post seriously?

[davelj]

[quote=4plexowner]

Yes, I am aware of FDIC and SIPC protection – I am also aware that both of these programs are horribly underfunded – they operate under the principle that only a few percent of the total amount of investors will ever need to be bailed out at the same time – in a widespread meltdown both of these programs would be overwhelmed and would likely start issuing certificates with maturity dates sometime in the future (sorry your bank lost your $250K – here’s a cert that matures in 2015 covering your full loss) – anyone needing cash today for one of these certs would probably be able to get 60-70% of face value
[/quote]

If you got the part above so obviously wrong, then I must cast suspicion on the rest of your post(s) as well. If the FDIC and/or SIPC run out of funds, they will borrow enough funds from the Treasury to make everyone whole, just as the FDIC did during the S&L crisis. The FDIC will raise deposit insurance premiums (as they already have) on the surviving banks to pay the Treasury back and replenish the fund (just as they did during the S&L crisis). The SIPC will increase fees to their member brokerage firms to achieve the same ends as the FDIC. That you don’t know this tells me just how little you know about how the financial world works. So do you really expect anyone to take the rest of your post seriously?

[peterb]

Time to start loading up short. This thing looks like it’s failing pretty badly.

[peterb]

Time to start loading up short. This thing looks like it’s failing pretty badly.

[peterb]

Time to start loading up short. This thing looks like it’s failing pretty badly.

[peterb]

Time to start loading up short. This thing looks like it’s failing pretty badly.

[Author]

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