Time to buy the stock market?

[peterb]

This chart shows the very bearish Double Top. Technically, it should return to where the curve first steepened. I’d say that’s about 400 to 600 on the S&P. I think the stats on this are about 75%.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Finally, if you extend your chart back further in time you can see the similarities between the current secular bear market that started in 2000 and the last one that started in the late 1960’s and ended in the early 1980’s.

[img_assist|nid=10214|title=Long-term S&P 500|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=499|height=300]

[peterb]

This chart shows the very bearish Double Top. Technically, it should return to where the curve first steepened. I’d say that’s about 400 to 600 on the S&P. I think the stats on this are about 75%.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Finally, if you extend your chart back further in time you can see the similarities between the current secular bear market that started in 2000 and the last one that started in the late 1960’s and ended in the early 1980’s.

[img_assist|nid=10214|title=Long-term S&P 500|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=499|height=300]

[peterb]

This chart shows the very bearish Double Top. Technically, it should return to where the curve first steepened. I’d say that’s about 400 to 600 on the S&P. I think the stats on this are about 75%.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Finally, if you extend your chart back further in time you can see the similarities between the current secular bear market that started in 2000 and the last one that started in the late 1960’s and ended in the early 1980’s.

[img_assist|nid=10214|title=Long-term S&P 500|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=499|height=300]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

what Richard is saying above is that the average investor doesn’t have a clue when to get in or out of the market so they do so based on the emotions of greed and fear – when the markets are moving up they think they are missing out on ‘free money’ so they buy into the top third of a bull market – near the bottom third of the following bear market they sell because fear has finally gotten strong enough

Wall Street tries to ‘help’ the average investor by acknowledging the investor’s lack of knowledge and providing them with a strategy: buy and hold and dollar cost averaging

again, how is that strategy working out for you?

[/quote]

Again, I said that “I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.” I know that most investors get it wrong. Although I don;t follow the DOW or the DOW letters for that matter, I fully understand the psychology that drives people to make those mistakes and I aim to profit from them. While others are selling in the current cyclical bear market I am averaging in. If I am to be correct, then I expect to be of the minority opinion most of the time.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

what Richard is saying above is that the average investor doesn’t have a clue when to get in or out of the market so they do so based on the emotions of greed and fear – when the markets are moving up they think they are missing out on ‘free money’ so they buy into the top third of a bull market – near the bottom third of the following bear market they sell because fear has finally gotten strong enough

Wall Street tries to ‘help’ the average investor by acknowledging the investor’s lack of knowledge and providing them with a strategy: buy and hold and dollar cost averaging

again, how is that strategy working out for you?

[/quote]

Again, I said that “I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.” I know that most investors get it wrong. Although I don;t follow the DOW or the DOW letters for that matter, I fully understand the psychology that drives people to make those mistakes and I aim to profit from them. While others are selling in the current cyclical bear market I am averaging in. If I am to be correct, then I expect to be of the minority opinion most of the time.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

what Richard is saying above is that the average investor doesn’t have a clue when to get in or out of the market so they do so based on the emotions of greed and fear – when the markets are moving up they think they are missing out on ‘free money’ so they buy into the top third of a bull market – near the bottom third of the following bear market they sell because fear has finally gotten strong enough

Wall Street tries to ‘help’ the average investor by acknowledging the investor’s lack of knowledge and providing them with a strategy: buy and hold and dollar cost averaging

again, how is that strategy working out for you?

[/quote]

Again, I said that “I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.” I know that most investors get it wrong. Although I don;t follow the DOW or the DOW letters for that matter, I fully understand the psychology that drives people to make those mistakes and I aim to profit from them. While others are selling in the current cyclical bear market I am averaging in. If I am to be correct, then I expect to be of the minority opinion most of the time.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

what Richard is saying above is that the average investor doesn’t have a clue when to get in or out of the market so they do so based on the emotions of greed and fear – when the markets are moving up they think they are missing out on ‘free money’ so they buy into the top third of a bull market – near the bottom third of the following bear market they sell because fear has finally gotten strong enough

Wall Street tries to ‘help’ the average investor by acknowledging the investor’s lack of knowledge and providing them with a strategy: buy and hold and dollar cost averaging

again, how is that strategy working out for you?

[/quote]

Again, I said that “I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.” I know that most investors get it wrong. Although I don;t follow the DOW or the DOW letters for that matter, I fully understand the psychology that drives people to make those mistakes and I aim to profit from them. While others are selling in the current cyclical bear market I am averaging in. If I am to be correct, then I expect to be of the minority opinion most of the time.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

what Richard is saying above is that the average investor doesn’t have a clue when to get in or out of the market so they do so based on the emotions of greed and fear – when the markets are moving up they think they are missing out on ‘free money’ so they buy into the top third of a bull market – near the bottom third of the following bear market they sell because fear has finally gotten strong enough

Wall Street tries to ‘help’ the average investor by acknowledging the investor’s lack of knowledge and providing them with a strategy: buy and hold and dollar cost averaging

again, how is that strategy working out for you?

[/quote]

Again, I said that “I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.” I know that most investors get it wrong. Although I don;t follow the DOW or the DOW letters for that matter, I fully understand the psychology that drives people to make those mistakes and I aim to profit from them. While others are selling in the current cyclical bear market I am averaging in. If I am to be correct, then I expect to be of the minority opinion most of the time.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight
[/quote]

Sounds like most of your personal positions have worked out over the past 3-4 years. Congrats.

Perhaps this was not available in your plan, but wouldn’t you have saved the 10% penalty, plus federal and state taxes (I am surprised you took only a 15% hit, that’s good tax planning) and simply put the money in the cash-equivalent or money market choice.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight
[/quote]

Sounds like most of your personal positions have worked out over the past 3-4 years. Congrats.

Perhaps this was not available in your plan, but wouldn’t you have saved the 10% penalty, plus federal and state taxes (I am surprised you took only a 15% hit, that’s good tax planning) and simply put the money in the cash-equivalent or money market choice.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight
[/quote]

Sounds like most of your personal positions have worked out over the past 3-4 years. Congrats.

Perhaps this was not available in your plan, but wouldn’t you have saved the 10% penalty, plus federal and state taxes (I am surprised you took only a 15% hit, that’s good tax planning) and simply put the money in the cash-equivalent or money market choice.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight
[/quote]

Sounds like most of your personal positions have worked out over the past 3-4 years. Congrats.

Perhaps this was not available in your plan, but wouldn’t you have saved the 10% penalty, plus federal and state taxes (I am surprised you took only a 15% hit, that’s good tax planning) and simply put the money in the cash-equivalent or money market choice.

[Author]

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