Time to buy oil?

[Arraya]

There are many higher dollar per barrel projects being mothballed, below 60 there are many. Opec can’t cut production fast enough, and many countries are close to civil unrest due to lack of oil revenue. Also the recent plunge is changing peoples habits that the $4 a gallon seemed to curb.

OTOH, Economic activity is grinding to a halt and job losses mounting with no end in sight. Consumption is dropping like a rock.

X factor 1: How cold will it get this winter? This matters.
X factor 2: Any oil related “event” could double or triple oil over night
X factor 3: Monetary-Hyper inflation/currency crisis

Richard Rainwater billionaire energy investor just dumped like 300 million back in @ $70ish. He was one of the contributing factors of why I dumped back in July.

When equilibrium is met oil will rocket up with a quickness.

[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[Arraya]

There is too much chaos in the market now. Chaotic dynamics are deterministic but they’re also extremely sensitive to initial conditions. We don’t know what those initial conditions are, all we have are distributions of probabilities. Chaos overlying stochasticity.

[Arraya]

There is too much chaos in the market now. Chaotic dynamics are deterministic but they’re also extremely sensitive to initial conditions. We don’t know what those initial conditions are, all we have are distributions of probabilities. Chaos overlying stochasticity.

[Arraya]

There is too much chaos in the market now. Chaotic dynamics are deterministic but they’re also extremely sensitive to initial conditions. We don’t know what those initial conditions are, all we have are distributions of probabilities. Chaos overlying stochasticity.

[Arraya]

There is too much chaos in the market now. Chaotic dynamics are deterministic but they’re also extremely sensitive to initial conditions. We don’t know what those initial conditions are, all we have are distributions of probabilities. Chaos overlying stochasticity.

[Arraya]

There is too much chaos in the market now. Chaotic dynamics are deterministic but they’re also extremely sensitive to initial conditions. We don’t know what those initial conditions are, all we have are distributions of probabilities. Chaos overlying stochasticity.

[TheBreeze]

[quote=TheBreeze]

No idea if this is the “exact” bottom. I bought a nice chunk of USO today and plan to buy more over the next several weeks/months (unless oil happens to shoot higher from here). I plan to hold for a few years.

If the USO goes to 45 I’ll buy some more, 40 still more, 35 still more. If the USO drops below 30, I’ll stop buying. I’d like to have about 20% of my non-401(k) money in oil before all is said and done. That depends on the price action from here. If USO starts to rise and doesn’t stop, I may not buy anymore.[/quote]

It’s hard to believe I made this post like six days ago when the USO was at 50 and now it’s around 45. That’s too quick of a drop for me to continue with my plan. For now, I’ll stick with the chunk of USO I currently have and probably end up selling it about 25% lower from here as is my custom when I buy a stock.

[TheBreeze]

[quote=TheBreeze]

No idea if this is the “exact” bottom. I bought a nice chunk of USO today and plan to buy more over the next several weeks/months (unless oil happens to shoot higher from here). I plan to hold for a few years.

If the USO goes to 45 I’ll buy some more, 40 still more, 35 still more. If the USO drops below 30, I’ll stop buying. I’d like to have about 20% of my non-401(k) money in oil before all is said and done. That depends on the price action from here. If USO starts to rise and doesn’t stop, I may not buy anymore.[/quote]

It’s hard to believe I made this post like six days ago when the USO was at 50 and now it’s around 45. That’s too quick of a drop for me to continue with my plan. For now, I’ll stick with the chunk of USO I currently have and probably end up selling it about 25% lower from here as is my custom when I buy a stock.

[TheBreeze]

[quote=TheBreeze]

No idea if this is the “exact” bottom. I bought a nice chunk of USO today and plan to buy more over the next several weeks/months (unless oil happens to shoot higher from here). I plan to hold for a few years.

If the USO goes to 45 I’ll buy some more, 40 still more, 35 still more. If the USO drops below 30, I’ll stop buying. I’d like to have about 20% of my non-401(k) money in oil before all is said and done. That depends on the price action from here. If USO starts to rise and doesn’t stop, I may not buy anymore.[/quote]

It’s hard to believe I made this post like six days ago when the USO was at 50 and now it’s around 45. That’s too quick of a drop for me to continue with my plan. For now, I’ll stick with the chunk of USO I currently have and probably end up selling it about 25% lower from here as is my custom when I buy a stock.

[TheBreeze]

[quote=TheBreeze]

No idea if this is the “exact” bottom. I bought a nice chunk of USO today and plan to buy more over the next several weeks/months (unless oil happens to shoot higher from here). I plan to hold for a few years.

If the USO goes to 45 I’ll buy some more, 40 still more, 35 still more. If the USO drops below 30, I’ll stop buying. I’d like to have about 20% of my non-401(k) money in oil before all is said and done. That depends on the price action from here. If USO starts to rise and doesn’t stop, I may not buy anymore.[/quote]

It’s hard to believe I made this post like six days ago when the USO was at 50 and now it’s around 45. That’s too quick of a drop for me to continue with my plan. For now, I’ll stick with the chunk of USO I currently have and probably end up selling it about 25% lower from here as is my custom when I buy a stock.

[Author]

Posts