time lag between NODs and sales

[csr_sd]

So as shown in the tables produced by ward hannigan on his website (foreclosureforum.com), NODS and NOTs (trustee sales) have been increasing dramatically. In fact Ward seems to be making projections on future NODS and has been pretty close (within about 10-12%) over the last several months.

NOTS are averaging about 30-40% of NODS, each month. But these NOTS must represent NODS that have gone all the way from NOD status at some point in the past.

Is there away to track whether the NOTS reported represent same NODS, or are these aggregate numbers. If they are simple aggregate numbers with a 6 month lag between first report of NOD and NOT, then the percent of NODS going to default would be higher.

eg In January there were 1436 NODS if there is a 6 month lag in June there was 738 trustee sales. Wrad reports ~43% NOD/NOT, but the number might be as high as 1436/ 738 or >50%.

This would mean bigger changes later in terms of numbers of houses coming on the market.

If my logic knowledge is wrong it wont be the first time, but I am just a bit confused about this.

cheers

[SD Realtor]

It is really tough to track. If you follow the timeline of a single distressed home it is easy. First the NOD, then the NOT then the trustee sale. In general the trustee sale happens almost 4 months (a little less actually) from the NOD.

However many people that get the NOD may cure the default only to get another NOD down the road and start the train all over.

My “guess” is that the reporting you see is simply the number of recordings that come out in that time period. So say the sample is for one month. In that month there are x NODs and y NOTs. There is not any correlations if any of the y NOTs were due to any of the x NODs. In fact more then likely the y NOTs were due to NODs in the previous months, mostly about 2-3 months prior.

Wards predictions are pretty accurate and I like his site. I kind of wish he had more details about the data itself and more information about cures, repeat offenders and such. Good site though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is really tough to track. If you follow the timeline of a single distressed home it is easy. First the NOD, then the NOT then the trustee sale. In general the trustee sale happens almost 4 months (a little less actually) from the NOD.

However many people that get the NOD may cure the default only to get another NOD down the road and start the train all over.

My “guess” is that the reporting you see is simply the number of recordings that come out in that time period. So say the sample is for one month. In that month there are x NODs and y NOTs. There is not any correlations if any of the y NOTs were due to any of the x NODs. In fact more then likely the y NOTs were due to NODs in the previous months, mostly about 2-3 months prior.

Wards predictions are pretty accurate and I like his site. I kind of wish he had more details about the data itself and more information about cures, repeat offenders and such. Good site though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is really tough to track. If you follow the timeline of a single distressed home it is easy. First the NOD, then the NOT then the trustee sale. In general the trustee sale happens almost 4 months (a little less actually) from the NOD.

However many people that get the NOD may cure the default only to get another NOD down the road and start the train all over.

My “guess” is that the reporting you see is simply the number of recordings that come out in that time period. So say the sample is for one month. In that month there are x NODs and y NOTs. There is not any correlations if any of the y NOTs were due to any of the x NODs. In fact more then likely the y NOTs were due to NODs in the previous months, mostly about 2-3 months prior.

Wards predictions are pretty accurate and I like his site. I kind of wish he had more details about the data itself and more information about cures, repeat offenders and such. Good site though.

SD Realtor

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