I have no data for 1990-1996 and 2004-2010, but let’s assume the same 9% annual increase.
I think this is a shaky way to extrapolate. Also, why don’t you have data for 2004-2010 since you are using your own insurance for an example?
I know that premiums on health insurance have increased faster than CPI, but has the actual cost of health care for cash payers? I’m starting to see greater and greater gaps from my experience. When I got very ill, I was expecting that the costs would put a very serious dent in the money I set aside, but I found that I could quickly negotiate cash discounts and the damage to the savings was not that great. My personal experience with dental experience also agrees with this. I found that only if I maxed out my dental ‘work’/charges, would insurance be less expensive than pay-as-you-go. I also found that I would have nearly hit the cap (I have a lot of crowns).
Americans also tend to be ‘over medicated’. Start with one drug to counter something simple and follow with a lot more to counter the side effects of the first drug and each following drug. This may have some bearing on the costs we are seeing.
I don’t see the justification for the increases in the premiums, and making insurance mandatory will not decrease the premiums. By making insurance mandatory, you have created a limited monopoly that favors insurance companies. Insurance companies were starting to hit a limit with any increases in profits. As the premium rates started to rise, people were dropping off insurance. Solution, in the insurance company eyes, is to make insurance mandatory. By the way, in the period you referenced, the profits of insurance companies increased 2.5 times from 2000 to 2009.
