Thoughts on the passage of the health care bill?

[ucodegen]

You guys are working with today’s $1.5K, extended through 20 years to get to $600K in 2030 dollars. You need to start by putting away the cost of premium from 1990. There is just no way the combined premiums since 1990 sitting in a vehicle available to general public would lead to $700K in today’s dollars.

You mean adjust for inflation because if I was starting the comparison at 1990, $1500 would be worth more in 1990 than now…

This is why I used S&P500 numbers as well. With the rate adjusted for inflation (approx 2.8% avg), I got about 6.8% ROI from S&P 500, which does give me more than $600k starting at the equivalent 1990 and the equiv $1500 adjusted for inflation. Using backwards CPI adjustment on inflation of 2.8%/yr, I started with $858.26/month adjusting each pay period by inflation and having an ROI of 10.8% not adjusted for inflation: year 20 gave me $808,413.38 with the monthly contrib at year 20 being $1500.

[beanmaestro]

It’s just not going to pencil out for anyone who gets a subsidy from their employer, and that’s a majority of the folks in the country and on this list. It’s also not going to work for anyone with a lower cost plan:

As discussed above, after 8 years, I’m at maybe $12k total payment & interest. With kids, my premium will go up to about $3k a year, but I wouldn’t reach $100k for a couple decades. That just doesn’t make any sense if y’know, someone gets sick between then and now.

In my case, I used an HMO when it was just me, and a PPO for the family plan, which (according to my employer) costs them $4000/yr and $13000/yr respectively. Even paying 100% out of pocket, it’s not $1500/month, and a lot less if I’m just covering me.

Regarding your question of self-insurance being allowed under the new law: I’m fine with that. Now that the legal framework exists, just add it to the 2010 update of the bill: Post a $XXX bond, and we’ll waive the requirement. The precedent exists for auto insurance bonds. Why didn’t it get into the bill the first time? Perhaps because the Repubs were unwilling to work toward a compromise, so the Dems had to fashion a bill that would get all 60 senate votes and 85% of Dem House votes instead of negotiating with a wider pool. I think we’d be looking at a better law if the Repubs were willing to play ball, rather than fear mongering.

[beanmaestro]

It’s just not going to pencil out for anyone who gets a subsidy from their employer, and that’s a majority of the folks in the country and on this list. It’s also not going to work for anyone with a lower cost plan:

As discussed above, after 8 years, I’m at maybe $12k total payment & interest. With kids, my premium will go up to about $3k a year, but I wouldn’t reach $100k for a couple decades. That just doesn’t make any sense if y’know, someone gets sick between then and now.

In my case, I used an HMO when it was just me, and a PPO for the family plan, which (according to my employer) costs them $4000/yr and $13000/yr respectively. Even paying 100% out of pocket, it’s not $1500/month, and a lot less if I’m just covering me.

Regarding your question of self-insurance being allowed under the new law: I’m fine with that. Now that the legal framework exists, just add it to the 2010 update of the bill: Post a $XXX bond, and we’ll waive the requirement. The precedent exists for auto insurance bonds. Why didn’t it get into the bill the first time? Perhaps because the Repubs were unwilling to work toward a compromise, so the Dems had to fashion a bill that would get all 60 senate votes and 85% of Dem House votes instead of negotiating with a wider pool. I think we’d be looking at a better law if the Repubs were willing to play ball, rather than fear mongering.

[beanmaestro]

It’s just not going to pencil out for anyone who gets a subsidy from their employer, and that’s a majority of the folks in the country and on this list. It’s also not going to work for anyone with a lower cost plan:

As discussed above, after 8 years, I’m at maybe $12k total payment & interest. With kids, my premium will go up to about $3k a year, but I wouldn’t reach $100k for a couple decades. That just doesn’t make any sense if y’know, someone gets sick between then and now.

In my case, I used an HMO when it was just me, and a PPO for the family plan, which (according to my employer) costs them $4000/yr and $13000/yr respectively. Even paying 100% out of pocket, it’s not $1500/month, and a lot less if I’m just covering me.

Regarding your question of self-insurance being allowed under the new law: I’m fine with that. Now that the legal framework exists, just add it to the 2010 update of the bill: Post a $XXX bond, and we’ll waive the requirement. The precedent exists for auto insurance bonds. Why didn’t it get into the bill the first time? Perhaps because the Repubs were unwilling to work toward a compromise, so the Dems had to fashion a bill that would get all 60 senate votes and 85% of Dem House votes instead of negotiating with a wider pool. I think we’d be looking at a better law if the Repubs were willing to play ball, rather than fear mongering.

[beanmaestro]

It’s just not going to pencil out for anyone who gets a subsidy from their employer, and that’s a majority of the folks in the country and on this list. It’s also not going to work for anyone with a lower cost plan:

As discussed above, after 8 years, I’m at maybe $12k total payment & interest. With kids, my premium will go up to about $3k a year, but I wouldn’t reach $100k for a couple decades. That just doesn’t make any sense if y’know, someone gets sick between then and now.

In my case, I used an HMO when it was just me, and a PPO for the family plan, which (according to my employer) costs them $4000/yr and $13000/yr respectively. Even paying 100% out of pocket, it’s not $1500/month, and a lot less if I’m just covering me.

Regarding your question of self-insurance being allowed under the new law: I’m fine with that. Now that the legal framework exists, just add it to the 2010 update of the bill: Post a $XXX bond, and we’ll waive the requirement. The precedent exists for auto insurance bonds. Why didn’t it get into the bill the first time? Perhaps because the Repubs were unwilling to work toward a compromise, so the Dems had to fashion a bill that would get all 60 senate votes and 85% of Dem House votes instead of negotiating with a wider pool. I think we’d be looking at a better law if the Repubs were willing to play ball, rather than fear mongering.

[beanmaestro]

It’s just not going to pencil out for anyone who gets a subsidy from their employer, and that’s a majority of the folks in the country and on this list. It’s also not going to work for anyone with a lower cost plan:

As discussed above, after 8 years, I’m at maybe $12k total payment & interest. With kids, my premium will go up to about $3k a year, but I wouldn’t reach $100k for a couple decades. That just doesn’t make any sense if y’know, someone gets sick between then and now.

In my case, I used an HMO when it was just me, and a PPO for the family plan, which (according to my employer) costs them $4000/yr and $13000/yr respectively. Even paying 100% out of pocket, it’s not $1500/month, and a lot less if I’m just covering me.

Regarding your question of self-insurance being allowed under the new law: I’m fine with that. Now that the legal framework exists, just add it to the 2010 update of the bill: Post a $XXX bond, and we’ll waive the requirement. The precedent exists for auto insurance bonds. Why didn’t it get into the bill the first time? Perhaps because the Repubs were unwilling to work toward a compromise, so the Dems had to fashion a bill that would get all 60 senate votes and 85% of Dem House votes instead of negotiating with a wider pool. I think we’d be looking at a better law if the Repubs were willing to play ball, rather than fear mongering.

[CA renter]

[quote=UCGal]David Frum’s take on the passage of the bill.
(Frum was a speechwriter for Bush)

http://www.frumforum.com/waterloo

For the ultra conservatives decrying this bill – it’s an eye opening read.[/quote]

From the link:

“No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the “doughnut hole” and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents’ insurance coverage? And even if the votes were there – would President Obama sign such a repeal?”
——————-

Wow.

[CA renter]

[quote=UCGal]David Frum’s take on the passage of the bill.
(Frum was a speechwriter for Bush)

http://www.frumforum.com/waterloo

For the ultra conservatives decrying this bill – it’s an eye opening read.[/quote]

From the link:

“No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the “doughnut hole” and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents’ insurance coverage? And even if the votes were there – would President Obama sign such a repeal?”
——————-

Wow.

[CA renter]

[quote=UCGal]David Frum’s take on the passage of the bill.
(Frum was a speechwriter for Bush)

http://www.frumforum.com/waterloo

For the ultra conservatives decrying this bill – it’s an eye opening read.[/quote]

From the link:

“No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the “doughnut hole” and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents’ insurance coverage? And even if the votes were there – would President Obama sign such a repeal?”
——————-

Wow.

[CA renter]

[quote=UCGal]David Frum’s take on the passage of the bill.
(Frum was a speechwriter for Bush)

http://www.frumforum.com/waterloo

For the ultra conservatives decrying this bill – it’s an eye opening read.[/quote]

From the link:

“No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the “doughnut hole” and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents’ insurance coverage? And even if the votes were there – would President Obama sign such a repeal?”
——————-

Wow.

[CA renter]

[quote=UCGal]David Frum’s take on the passage of the bill.
(Frum was a speechwriter for Bush)

http://www.frumforum.com/waterloo

For the ultra conservatives decrying this bill – it’s an eye opening read.[/quote]

From the link:

“No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the “doughnut hole” and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents’ insurance coverage? And even if the votes were there – would President Obama sign such a repeal?”
——————-

Wow.

[Anonymous]

Insurance does not necessarily raise healthcare costs. In many ways it lowers them. HMOs and PPOs can lower costs because they have bargaining power that individual consumers would never have (unless everyone wasted a lot of time/energy shopping around for rates every time they needed care or drugs.)

One can’t put their “insurance fund” in the S&P500 and then assume that they will get the historical average rate of return.

You don’t know when you are going to need it. It has to be liquid. Just look at the chart for the SP&P 500 after the last 15 years or so. Better be sure you get sick at one of the peaks.

And like another posted mentioned, insurance rates were much lower 20 years ago. Which means the plan is even less feasible. Even adjusting for inflation. There’s just no way one could accumulate $700k in 20 years, in a liquid account, simply by skipping insurance premiums.

So how exactly did you accumulate this money? Because if it was more than just not paying premiums, then it’s not really “self insuring.”

But the interesting question is this: what happens to the self insured person that gets sick or hurt early in their plan?

It’s not a plan. It’s a gamble. If it happened to work for someone, they are lucky, not smart.

[Anonymous]

Insurance does not necessarily raise healthcare costs. In many ways it lowers them. HMOs and PPOs can lower costs because they have bargaining power that individual consumers would never have (unless everyone wasted a lot of time/energy shopping around for rates every time they needed care or drugs.)

One can’t put their “insurance fund” in the S&P500 and then assume that they will get the historical average rate of return.

You don’t know when you are going to need it. It has to be liquid. Just look at the chart for the SP&P 500 after the last 15 years or so. Better be sure you get sick at one of the peaks.

And like another posted mentioned, insurance rates were much lower 20 years ago. Which means the plan is even less feasible. Even adjusting for inflation. There’s just no way one could accumulate $700k in 20 years, in a liquid account, simply by skipping insurance premiums.

So how exactly did you accumulate this money? Because if it was more than just not paying premiums, then it’s not really “self insuring.”

But the interesting question is this: what happens to the self insured person that gets sick or hurt early in their plan?

It’s not a plan. It’s a gamble. If it happened to work for someone, they are lucky, not smart.

[Anonymous]

Insurance does not necessarily raise healthcare costs. In many ways it lowers them. HMOs and PPOs can lower costs because they have bargaining power that individual consumers would never have (unless everyone wasted a lot of time/energy shopping around for rates every time they needed care or drugs.)

One can’t put their “insurance fund” in the S&P500 and then assume that they will get the historical average rate of return.

You don’t know when you are going to need it. It has to be liquid. Just look at the chart for the SP&P 500 after the last 15 years or so. Better be sure you get sick at one of the peaks.

And like another posted mentioned, insurance rates were much lower 20 years ago. Which means the plan is even less feasible. Even adjusting for inflation. There’s just no way one could accumulate $700k in 20 years, in a liquid account, simply by skipping insurance premiums.

So how exactly did you accumulate this money? Because if it was more than just not paying premiums, then it’s not really “self insuring.”

But the interesting question is this: what happens to the self insured person that gets sick or hurt early in their plan?

It’s not a plan. It’s a gamble. If it happened to work for someone, they are lucky, not smart.

[Anonymous]

Insurance does not necessarily raise healthcare costs. In many ways it lowers them. HMOs and PPOs can lower costs because they have bargaining power that individual consumers would never have (unless everyone wasted a lot of time/energy shopping around for rates every time they needed care or drugs.)

One can’t put their “insurance fund” in the S&P500 and then assume that they will get the historical average rate of return.

You don’t know when you are going to need it. It has to be liquid. Just look at the chart for the SP&P 500 after the last 15 years or so. Better be sure you get sick at one of the peaks.

And like another posted mentioned, insurance rates were much lower 20 years ago. Which means the plan is even less feasible. Even adjusting for inflation. There’s just no way one could accumulate $700k in 20 years, in a liquid account, simply by skipping insurance premiums.

So how exactly did you accumulate this money? Because if it was more than just not paying premiums, then it’s not really “self insuring.”

But the interesting question is this: what happens to the self insured person that gets sick or hurt early in their plan?

It’s not a plan. It’s a gamble. If it happened to work for someone, they are lucky, not smart.

[Author]

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