This Recession, It’s Just Beginning

[jficquette]

[quote=LA_Renter][quote=hipmatt]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030.html

So much for that second-half rebound.

Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.

It ain’t gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
[/quote]

That has been my sentiment through the entire first half of this year. These bear market rallies are becoming comical. I have to admit I enjoy watching CNBC on these big downward movements just to see the expression of the permabull pollyannas..(you mean there really isn’t a Santa Clause…Oh NO!). We have just witnessed one of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the markets…..POP! What do you think the correction is going to look like??
[/quote]

That is one reason the Vix is so low. People have been burned shorting this market and are thinking its just another sell off that will be followed by a rally that will last.

Rather then “slow motion recession” it would be more accurate to term it a “slow motion train wreck”

John

[bsrsharma]

USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? With all the problems, the situation seems better than what happened in Brazil, Argentina, Russia and even 1930s here. US still has great advantage in many resources. Very soon, China, India and many other countries can’t feed their people without massive food imports and the resulting raise in food prices can easily turn balance of trade to U.S. advantage. One can do all kinds of economizing with oil, but it is hard to solve food deficit. We are dumbstruck by oil as the currency of power now, but historically, food is even more potent.

[bsrsharma]

USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? With all the problems, the situation seems better than what happened in Brazil, Argentina, Russia and even 1930s here. US still has great advantage in many resources. Very soon, China, India and many other countries can’t feed their people without massive food imports and the resulting raise in food prices can easily turn balance of trade to U.S. advantage. One can do all kinds of economizing with oil, but it is hard to solve food deficit. We are dumbstruck by oil as the currency of power now, but historically, food is even more potent.

[bsrsharma]

USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? With all the problems, the situation seems better than what happened in Brazil, Argentina, Russia and even 1930s here. US still has great advantage in many resources. Very soon, China, India and many other countries can’t feed their people without massive food imports and the resulting raise in food prices can easily turn balance of trade to U.S. advantage. One can do all kinds of economizing with oil, but it is hard to solve food deficit. We are dumbstruck by oil as the currency of power now, but historically, food is even more potent.

[bsrsharma]

USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? With all the problems, the situation seems better than what happened in Brazil, Argentina, Russia and even 1930s here. US still has great advantage in many resources. Very soon, China, India and many other countries can’t feed their people without massive food imports and the resulting raise in food prices can easily turn balance of trade to U.S. advantage. One can do all kinds of economizing with oil, but it is hard to solve food deficit. We are dumbstruck by oil as the currency of power now, but historically, food is even more potent.

[bsrsharma]

USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? With all the problems, the situation seems better than what happened in Brazil, Argentina, Russia and even 1930s here. US still has great advantage in many resources. Very soon, China, India and many other countries can’t feed their people without massive food imports and the resulting raise in food prices can easily turn balance of trade to U.S. advantage. One can do all kinds of economizing with oil, but it is hard to solve food deficit. We are dumbstruck by oil as the currency of power now, but historically, food is even more potent.

[Navydoc]

[quote=bsrsharma]USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? [/quote]

No, I don’t think it is. I think of the current situation as very similar to what happened to the American automotive industry in the 1970’s. When fuel costs began soaring what happened? US companies were still building large, overpowered, gas guzzling muscle cars, while the Japanese and the Germans responded with smaller, fuel efficient, reliable cars that took the market by storm. It took almost a full decade for the big 3 to respond, and we ended up with cars like the Reliant K as a legacy of the times.

Has the US auto industry recovered from those times? I don’t think so. How often did you see a foreign car in the early 70’s? Almost never. By 1980 they were everywhwere, and now Toyota is the world’s largest auto maker. Heres another thing- when I was a kid “made in Japan” meant junk. Anybody else remember those days? Now it’s a badge of quality.

If we as a country fail to respond adequately to the challeges facing us, there is no doubt in my mind that we will recede as the world’s largest economy, and be replaced by those countries who are more adaptable and forward-thinking than we are.

[Navydoc]

[quote=bsrsharma]USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? [/quote]

No, I don’t think it is. I think of the current situation as very similar to what happened to the American automotive industry in the 1970’s. When fuel costs began soaring what happened? US companies were still building large, overpowered, gas guzzling muscle cars, while the Japanese and the Germans responded with smaller, fuel efficient, reliable cars that took the market by storm. It took almost a full decade for the big 3 to respond, and we ended up with cars like the Reliant K as a legacy of the times.

Has the US auto industry recovered from those times? I don’t think so. How often did you see a foreign car in the early 70’s? Almost never. By 1980 they were everywhwere, and now Toyota is the world’s largest auto maker. Heres another thing- when I was a kid “made in Japan” meant junk. Anybody else remember those days? Now it’s a badge of quality.

If we as a country fail to respond adequately to the challeges facing us, there is no doubt in my mind that we will recede as the world’s largest economy, and be replaced by those countries who are more adaptable and forward-thinking than we are.

[Navydoc]

[quote=bsrsharma]USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? [/quote]

No, I don’t think it is. I think of the current situation as very similar to what happened to the American automotive industry in the 1970’s. When fuel costs began soaring what happened? US companies were still building large, overpowered, gas guzzling muscle cars, while the Japanese and the Germans responded with smaller, fuel efficient, reliable cars that took the market by storm. It took almost a full decade for the big 3 to respond, and we ended up with cars like the Reliant K as a legacy of the times.

Has the US auto industry recovered from those times? I don’t think so. How often did you see a foreign car in the early 70’s? Almost never. By 1980 they were everywhwere, and now Toyota is the world’s largest auto maker. Heres another thing- when I was a kid “made in Japan” meant junk. Anybody else remember those days? Now it’s a badge of quality.

If we as a country fail to respond adequately to the challeges facing us, there is no doubt in my mind that we will recede as the world’s largest economy, and be replaced by those countries who are more adaptable and forward-thinking than we are.

[Navydoc]

[quote=bsrsharma]USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? [/quote]

No, I don’t think it is. I think of the current situation as very similar to what happened to the American automotive industry in the 1970’s. When fuel costs began soaring what happened? US companies were still building large, overpowered, gas guzzling muscle cars, while the Japanese and the Germans responded with smaller, fuel efficient, reliable cars that took the market by storm. It took almost a full decade for the big 3 to respond, and we ended up with cars like the Reliant K as a legacy of the times.

Has the US auto industry recovered from those times? I don’t think so. How often did you see a foreign car in the early 70’s? Almost never. By 1980 they were everywhwere, and now Toyota is the world’s largest auto maker. Heres another thing- when I was a kid “made in Japan” meant junk. Anybody else remember those days? Now it’s a badge of quality.

If we as a country fail to respond adequately to the challeges facing us, there is no doubt in my mind that we will recede as the world’s largest economy, and be replaced by those countries who are more adaptable and forward-thinking than we are.

[Navydoc]

[quote=bsrsharma]USA will NEVER fully recover from it

Isn’t that extreme? [/quote]

No, I don’t think it is. I think of the current situation as very similar to what happened to the American automotive industry in the 1970’s. When fuel costs began soaring what happened? US companies were still building large, overpowered, gas guzzling muscle cars, while the Japanese and the Germans responded with smaller, fuel efficient, reliable cars that took the market by storm. It took almost a full decade for the big 3 to respond, and we ended up with cars like the Reliant K as a legacy of the times.

Has the US auto industry recovered from those times? I don’t think so. How often did you see a foreign car in the early 70’s? Almost never. By 1980 they were everywhwere, and now Toyota is the world’s largest auto maker. Heres another thing- when I was a kid “made in Japan” meant junk. Anybody else remember those days? Now it’s a badge of quality.

If we as a country fail to respond adequately to the challeges facing us, there is no doubt in my mind that we will recede as the world’s largest economy, and be replaced by those countries who are more adaptable and forward-thinking than we are.

[CA renter]

stockstradr,

Unfortunately, I agree with everything you’ve said.

[CA renter]

stockstradr,

Unfortunately, I agree with everything you’ve said.

[CA renter]

stockstradr,

Unfortunately, I agree with everything you’ve said.

[CA renter]

stockstradr,

Unfortunately, I agree with everything you’ve said.

[Author]

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