The Tipping Point Is Here

[NotCranky]

“yeah, but she’s talking about acceleration of the down trend rather than the peak. like the point at which a coaster starts speeding down the track, the center of mass crests and starts accelerating the whole thing down even though several cars have already gone over the peak.”

I’ve already stuck my neck out on that one. Something about the “macaroni about to hit the fan” on a “Big chunk or Slow Decline” thread.Confirmation/Denial reports are due in the next 3 to 9 months.

[NotCranky]

“yeah, but she’s talking about acceleration of the down trend rather than the peak. like the point at which a coaster starts speeding down the track, the center of mass crests and starts accelerating the whole thing down even though several cars have already gone over the peak.”

I’ve already stuck my neck out on that one. Something about the “macaroni about to hit the fan” on a “Big chunk or Slow Decline” thread.Confirmation/Denial reports are due in the next 3 to 9 months.

[North County Jim]

Has anyone paid attention to the craziness of the last couple of days?

One could probably make the case that the last couple of days signify a return to sanity.

I would view providing zero-down, no-doc loans to borrowers whose sole qualification was a pulse as craziness.

I’d view high-yield corporate debt without covenants as craziness.

Etc, etc.

A return to sanity is long overdue, unsettling as it may be.

[North County Jim]

Has anyone paid attention to the craziness of the last couple of days?

One could probably make the case that the last couple of days signify a return to sanity.

I would view providing zero-down, no-doc loans to borrowers whose sole qualification was a pulse as craziness.

I’d view high-yield corporate debt without covenants as craziness.

Etc, etc.

A return to sanity is long overdue, unsettling as it may be.

[PD]

NCJ, it is craziness I have been cheering on!

[PD]

NCJ, it is craziness I have been cheering on!

[bob007]

I do not think we are anywhere near a tipping point. In the short term the credit bubble, sub-prime mess, affordability issue will work out.

In the long run competition from China/India, immigration from Mexico will determine housing prices.

[bob007]

I do not think we are anywhere near a tipping point. In the short term the credit bubble, sub-prime mess, affordability issue will work out.

In the long run competition from China/India, immigration from Mexico will determine housing prices.

[patientrenter]

bob007, home prices in the long run will be determined by one set of factors, but they can be blown off course by different factors over shorter horizons, like the next 2-10 years, for example.

I tend to think that long-term prices will be determined by how well Southern California can use its natural and cultural resources to compete for top-notch mobile global talent, and by the growth of that talent.

But in the next 2-10 years, any long-term trend could be dominated by an old-fashioned, more local, supply-demand cycle. And if a credit crunch is going to drive us into a downturn for the next few years, then these last few weeks at least contained some important milestones. Whether any of those is a unique tipping point, I don’t know. A concerted private-public bail-out could change everything, but that may or may not happen.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

bob007, home prices in the long run will be determined by one set of factors, but they can be blown off course by different factors over shorter horizons, like the next 2-10 years, for example.

I tend to think that long-term prices will be determined by how well Southern California can use its natural and cultural resources to compete for top-notch mobile global talent, and by the growth of that talent.

But in the next 2-10 years, any long-term trend could be dominated by an old-fashioned, more local, supply-demand cycle. And if a credit crunch is going to drive us into a downturn for the next few years, then these last few weeks at least contained some important milestones. Whether any of those is a unique tipping point, I don’t know. A concerted private-public bail-out could change everything, but that may or may not happen.

Patient renter in OC

[Enorah]

So, when I posted this initially, I really was unclear as to the specifics of what I was feeling. I only knew that I was feeling something very strongly and the words “The Tipping Point is Here” were in my head. Those were the words that seemed to describe the feeling of that moment.

So, looking back now, 2 and a half weeks later, what do you all think?

[Enorah]

So, when I posted this initially, I really was unclear as to the specifics of what I was feeling. I only knew that I was feeling something very strongly and the words “The Tipping Point is Here” were in my head. Those were the words that seemed to describe the feeling of that moment.

So, looking back now, 2 and a half weeks later, what do you all think?

[Enorah]

So, when I posted this initially, I really was unclear as to the specifics of what I was feeling. I only knew that I was feeling something very strongly and the words “The Tipping Point is Here” were in my head. Those were the words that seemed to describe the feeling of that moment.

So, looking back now, 2 and a half weeks later, what do you all think?

[NotCranky]

I think that you probably hit a home run with the possibility that when you go to run the bases they are gone and you realize that the game is now football and you are sitting up in the stands. Might as well get a beer(or soda).

[NotCranky]

I think that you probably hit a home run with the possibility that when you go to run the bases they are gone and you realize that the game is now football and you are sitting up in the stands. Might as well get a beer(or soda).

[Author]

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