The Short Sale Monitor

[lendingbubblecontinues]

“However, weren’t we all saying that 2007 was going to be the year while now we seem to saying look out for 2008.”

Folks…we are only 21% of the way through 2007. Nearly 80% of the year awaits and I project it gets much, much worse before it gets any better. Have faith, will ya?

I, for one, am not saying look out for 2008. I am saying look what has happened in the last three weeks! In a “booming” economy, flush with jobs for everyone who wants one, the shit is hitting the fan? You have to wonder why?

Current sales to high-net worth households do not necessarily give a clear picture of the state of the local real estate market, correct?

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Dear Piggingtonians,

The ARMS reset time bomb chart shared by kev374 in a recent thread is analogous to looking at a crystal ball. Please extrapolate away to your own benefit. It says, take cover.

[kewp]

“Current sales to high-net worth households do not necessarily give a clear picture of the state of the local real estate market, correct?”

I’ll agree, I’m one of the contrarians here that still feels that prime properties in SD county will weather any downturn better than less-desirable areas.

Something I’m thinking is that perhaps its just going to take mass-foreclosures to bring the median down in a meaningful way, as the average seller is just too emotionally invested to drop their prices in any meaningful way.

[LA_Renter]

Here is the Arm Reset Schedule from Credit Suisse again

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/reset.PNG

We are in month three……there have been 30 subprime lenders go under to date……look at the amount of loans resetting moving forward……Oct of this year will see $50 Billion+ reset in that month alone.

We are now officially entering totally unchartered waters. The US property market has never experienced anything like this in its history at least on this scale. I am very thankful we have straight forward realtors like SD Realtor and others on this board. If there were ever a time to pay attention to what is actually happening on the front line it is right now. IMO everything we know or think we know is about to change.

[CarlsbadMtnBiker]

Hello Sdrealtor,

I am a little late on responding here but wanted to let you know that I read your post every week and appreciate the data and your commentary. I am especially partial to the N.County Coastal info (i.e. 92009) – Thank you for your efforts and do hope you continue to share.

[sdrealtor]

Thanx CMB,
I always try include a bit of commentary on my home market which covers 92024,92009 and 92011. Since a few other locals have expressed interest, I’ll ry to beef that portion up just a notch.
SDR

[DaisyDuke]

I finally have one worth reporting! Hope the link works.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/estimated_value.jsp?listing_num=P558287&page=2&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=4vts55rd&source=SOCALMLS

Address: 1008 DOROTHEA ROAD, La Habra Heights, CA 90631

Last Sale – 4/21/06 — $1,050,000

Current Listing Price: $849,000

Is this the definition of a short sale?

[sdrealtor]

Only if the loan balance is $849,000.01 or more.

[sdrealtor]

Short sales 1,566 heading up again from 1,506 last week!

Total SD County Listings 15,317 and heading up from 15,111 last week. Regardless of the roughly 1,000 listings that vanished a couple weeks ago from the MLS- inventory is heading up again albeit quite slowly.

In the North County Coastal market that I watch closely, Inventory is very stable right now. Very little new listings are coming on the market. Most of what I am seeing hit the market is either low end ($700K and under in this area) or over $1M. Nice homes in the middle are selling well at prices about 5% below last years prices and are in relatively short supply.

For example, a bread and butter product in the portion of South Carlsbad that falls in the Encinitas School District are newer 4+BR homes built in the last 10 years with at least 2400 sq ft. Right now there are only 2 homes like this below $900,000 and 6 in escrow. This product is always in high demand among relo buyers and there is virtually nothing on the market.

I dont get to speak with as many agents as I used to due to competing buisness interests but I spoke with several agents this morning. Open house traffic and showings dropped quite a bit in the last week. There was a definite surge in activity/sales the 1st 2 weeks in March but that appears to be waning now. I have also heard of several escrows going south because buyers cant qualify/get loans on low end properties.

[ibjames]

what do you typically rate as a low end property?

[Bugs]

With the sub-primes and Alt-A programs in retreat I wonder how many of the pendings will fall out because of financing, and further, how many upleg transactions will fall out because the downleg transaction fell out.

A move-up buyer can’t move up unless they sell their starter home at their price.

[CAwireman]

Rockclimber had begun to chart the data. Would love to see an updated graph!

Is there anyone else out there that needs more to do?

😉

[sdrealtor]

In general, I consider the low end to be condos between 300K and 450K. Typical buyers here are renters looking to buy something that should probably stay renters. In the detached market the low end is up to about $650K. Typical buyers here are young couple that should probably be starting in a townhouse but think they have good jobs with upward mobility and they deserve a house. Please remember that these are just generalizations/stereotypical descriptions. It is also in my neck of the woods and it could be different elsewhere.

[Artifact]

Let’s see if this works…Now that I have done this once – I should be able to quickly redo it every week or two as sdrealtor puts up new data – no promises, but I do try and keep tabs on this post and others here even if I don’t post a whole bunch in response.

I will try and label the axes better some other time – but they are pretty self explanatory – left axis is short sales, right axis is total sales.

[img_assist|nid=2961|title= Short Sale and Total Listings 3/27/2007|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=335]

[Artifact]

The companion to that – here are the week to week percent changes in Short Sales (red), Total Listings (blue) and the overall percent of the listings that are short sales (green).

[img_assist|nid=2962|title= Week to Week Percent Changes in Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

[Author]

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