The Short Sale Monitor

[Anonymous]

Beautiful work…looks like there has been an upwards trend change on the percentage of short sales.

Anyone have historical data on what that number might reach in a terrible market (e.g., mid 1980s Texas)?

[Artifact]

New figures – nothing new – sorry for being lazy and not updating the axis so that short sales fit on the plot – maybe if they were not increasing so quickly….

[img_assist|nid=4668|title= Total Listing and Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]
[img_assist|nid=4669|title= Percent Change|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]
[img_assist|nid=4670|title= Short Sale Trends|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=247]

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 4,343 up from 4,192 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,644 up from from 19,492 last week and close to where we were 2 weeks ago. looks like the end of Summer expired listings got refreshed.

[Artifact]

Figures – the first two are the same as usual. Nothing new, just the same trend we have been seeing.

I scrapped the third plot in favor of a new one. I did not think it was adding anything new, just replotting data from the first two figures. The new figure combines some data from a different thread – the weekly NOT’s – I just wanted to see what this looks like and I am not really sure what to make of it. There are 3 things plotted – the number of NOT’s and the change in listings are against the left axis. The change in listings is a function of both new listings and sales – so I then just divided the NOT’s by the change in listings to get a ratio.

That ratio is just a generic measure of foreclosure activity versus MLS activity – I included “zero” lines for listings and for the ratio. I am open to suggestions as to how to improve that, or better yet, interpetation of what the hell it means? There is obviously some error in this as the data are not from the exact same source. The NOT’s cannot be negative but the listings can go negative due to higher sales than listings, or more likely expired listings. As usual with these type of data, the overall trend is far more important than looking at weekly variation or any of the “extreme” weeks.

Cheers,

T

[img_assist|nid=4737|title= Total Listings and Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=280]
[img_assist|nid=4738|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=280]
[img_assist|nid=4739|title=NOT Ratio|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=343]

[sdrealtor]

Update time! Sorry Guys and gals, I ran the numbers on Monday and forgot to update the thread.

Short sales 4,518 up from 4,343 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,629 down from 19,644 last week. Inventory seems to have flattened again.

[Artifact]

Figures – nothing new here. It is interesting that with listings staying virtually float, short sales are still increasing – either existing listings are lowering their price to the point they are short sales, or the few new listings are dominated by short sales – or more likely a combination of those two.

Laziness – and the need to get some work done before taking off for the Padres game this afternoon – has prevented me from changing the y-axis scale to fit the ever growing percentage and short sales – I did not have new data for the 3rd plot – but that is not as relevant to this thread anyway.

Cheers –

[img_assist|nid=4863|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=283]
[img_assist|nid=4864|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=283]

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 4,653 up from 4,518 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,777 up from 19,629 last week. Inventory has been relatively flat bouncing up and down in a narrow range for several weeks.

I ran some stats on several RE Offices in my area and the numbers are very weak. Most offices have very few listings in escrow. I expect to see consolidation of offices commencing soon among the big guys and doors shutting among the smaller players.

[Artifact]

New figures – a little cleaner and with adjusted axes! Nothing new though, it is interesting that total inventory is going up – there was another thread discussing that YOY listings was flat, which was true, but if these data are indicative of the overall market (we know these are a little lower than the actual number) then that statement will quickly change because last year at this time listings were decreasing.

Still seeing that the short sales increases more each week than listings, so the perentage of the total listings that are short continues to climb in a VERY consistent way.

[img_assist|nid=4920|title= Short sales and toal listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=259]
[img_assist|nid=4921|title= Percent change and percent short of total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=259]

[sdrealtor]

Update time!
I ran the numbers last week but misplaced them. Sorry folks.

Short sales 4,999 up from 4,653 two weeks ago. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,715, down a little from 19,777 two weeks ago.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!
I ran the numbers last week but misplaced them. Sorry folks.

Short sales 4,999 up from 4,653 two weeks ago. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,715, down a little from 19,777 two weeks ago.

[Artifact]

Figures:

Nothing new as usual – interesting that even with inventory decreasing slightly the short sales are still going up – meaning that we have gotten to the point where more than 25% of the listings in this query are listed as short sales –

Edit: As a note – I did allow for the skipped week in the figures, but the very high percent change is biased by two weeks worth of data – divide that in half and it is probably closer to correct. But it does still lok like there has been a slight inflection in the short sales again – need a few more weeks to see what is going on there.

[img_assist|nid=5075|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=312]
[img_assist|nid=5076|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=300]

[Artifact]

Figures:

Nothing new as usual – interesting that even with inventory decreasing slightly the short sales are still going up – meaning that we have gotten to the point where more than 25% of the listings in this query are listed as short sales –

Edit: As a note – I did allow for the skipped week in the figures, but the very high percent change is biased by two weeks worth of data – divide that in half and it is probably closer to correct. But it does still lok like there has been a slight inflection in the short sales again – need a few more weeks to see what is going on there.

[img_assist|nid=5075|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=312]
[img_assist|nid=5076|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=300]

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 5,121,up from 4,999 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,602 down from 19,715. I dont know if 2 weeks of declines is the start of the seasonal decline or a temporary blip. Something to watch.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 5,121,up from 4,999 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,602 down from 19,715. I dont know if 2 weeks of declines is the start of the seasonal decline or a temporary blip. Something to watch.

[luxuryglow]

OMG!! I’m speechless…
Thanks Sdr for the updates.

[Author]

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