The Short Sale Monitor

[SD Realtor]

Guys please reread the original post by sdr. He clearly stated how he came up with the numbers which is what is most important. Basically it is a string search in 3 seperate sections that we can search on the MLS. Furthermore as Jim and as sdr noted, there have been some bizarre things happening with the MLS. I really don’t think the total number is as important as the derivative, (the rate of change). The point of the post is not to pinpoint the number of short sales on the MLS but to give an approximate total and sense of direction. Given the MLS hiccup, and the fact that ZIP gets all of their listings from IDX which is basically the MLS, I don’t think trying to get the totals to match is fruitful.

SD Realtor

[Anonymous]

sdr,
Zip Realty breaks down the San Diego listings by city/community (all in San Diego County).

SD R,
I don’t dispute sdr’s numbers, nor did I mean to belittle his efforts, but I do believe that Sandicor is intentionally deceiving its members.

[SD Realtor]

getoutahe –

No worries. I understand and many of the members of Sandicor, including myself are baffled by it. I have no clue what is going on with them.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Just checked Solana Beach in the MLS. When I run stats which I know is low, I get 85. When I run all the listings which I know is accurate I get 92. I purposely selected places with less than 250 because the system caps out at returning 250 listings. ZIP has 100. Thats a 10% difference.

Santee
Stats 216
MLS LIstings 227
ZIP 234

I could keep going but I think the truth is probably somewhere around halfway between the numbers I get running stats and what ZIP posts.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 2,021 up from 1,916 last week! Happy 2K day!

Total SD County Listings 16,796 another relatively small climb from 16,534 last week. Inventory really has to start climbing soon or prices will not be pressured anywhere near the amount they were last year.

Quick update on NC Coastal. Active listings climbed about 3% (443 to 460) and pendings (in escrow) are down about 10% (185 to 168). The decline in pendings is likely due to alot of closings on Friday as we are near the EOM.

Here’s the real story along the NCC. This time last year inventory was about 20% higher than it is today and pendings are very consistent with last year. I ran the numbers again to make sure the statistics glitch was skewing these numbers and the impact was nil. This weekend, I saw a bunch of homes go pending with asking prices that seemed quite high. While they probably didnt sell at those prices, they likely sold much higher than I would have guessed 30 to 60 days ago because there is very little on the market. If you are looking for a nice 4BR house in a good area, good luck. I’m not talking about something fancy but rather your basic 4BR house with 2500 sq ft built in the last 20 years. Not much in the way of real discernable weakness here along the coast.

One last thought. If there is a hotter market in SD than Carmel Valley (92130), I’d like to know where. I started tracking SFR inventory there last August. On August 15, 2006 the inventory was double what it is today and the pendings were about half. Anyone waitng for a collapse in prices there should look into getting a nice comfortable chair cause its gonna take a while if at all.

[Artifact]

The plots:

A note on the second plot – the percent change is plotted as week-over-week. Any point above the grey line (zero change) means an increase from the previous week. The most notable thing here is that every week, the change in short sales is always a little bigger than the change in total listings, resulting in the steady (almost linear) increase in the percent of total listing that are short sales (the green line).

[img_assist|nid=3289|title= Short and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=292]
[img_assist|nid=3290|title= Percent change and percent short sales (of total)|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=292]

[sdappraiser]

Don’t know if this has been addressed before, but I’ve noticed A LOT of listings lately where the dopey agents have put “Not a short sale! Not a foreclosure!” in the listing. Obviously an attempt to get pulled into searches where agents have clients looking for deals or whatever.

Again, I’ve noticed lots of these.. how do you think this might be skewing your searches sdrealtor?

[sdrealtor]

Not skewing them at all. We are following the number of times “short sale” appears in listings as a way of tracking distress in the market. I think the cases you mention are very limited. Usually when you see not a short sale, its an REO.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 2,113 up from 2,021 last week! We’ve been climbing close to 100 each week.

Total SD County Listings 17,075 another relatively small climb from 16,796 last week. Inventory does not appear to flooding the market and I wonder if it will.

Quick update on NC Coastal. Active listings are flat (460 to 457) and pendings (in escrow) are also (168 to 169). Along the NCC, the market is still very tight for well priced homes. I wrote an offer on the kind of property I mentioned last week. Nothing fancy, just a nice clean 4BR home under 10 years old priced at the last closed sale. It was definitely well prepared and well marketed. There were 5 full price offers on the property after the first day on the market. I believe 3 were from corporate relocation clients coming from out of the area and that they all had very substantial down payments. My clients didnt get it.

[sdappraiser]

Maybe, but I’ve seen at least half a dozen that fit my example in the last week alone that were not bank owned per realist. Random zips.

I’ve noticed an increase in this wording over the last 4-6 weeks but just started checking ownership to see what was going on. I’ll start listing MLS numbers if you want, as I run across them..

I bet this is overstating your figures a bit, maybe not significantly.. but it seems like an obvious ploy agents might use to get their listing pulled into an REO or Short Sale search.

[SD Realtor]

SDA – I am not so sure that buyers agents are overly excited when they have to make an offer on a short sale. Given two properties identically priced one being a short sale and one not, I would much rather negotiate with the one that was not a short sale. Buyers probably do not understand that but it is much easier to work with the seller and not with the lender. I understand your point though as a psychological ploy.

SD Realtor

[Artifact]

Pretty pictures. Since the large drop in both total listings and short sales in march, there has been a steady increase in both, but the percent increase is always bigger in short sales continuing the great linear increase in percent of total listing that are short sales (green line in the second figure).

Note: For fairness, I repeated the first figure using the same scale for both numbers to remove the scaling effect in the first figure.

[img_assist|nid=3355|title= Total Listings and short sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=308]
[img_assist|nid=3356|title= Percent change and percent total listings that are short|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=308]
[img_assist|nid=3357|title= Unscaled listing numbers|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=308]

[sdrealtor]

I think your first graph with a 10:1 scale is actually a very reasonable comparison and does a good job showing the higher velocity on the distressed side of the market.

[JJGittes]

Update today?

[sdrealtor]

Its coming. I also promised another reader some more info on CV so I’ll try to add that today.

[Author]

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