The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdrealtor]

Spin away spinboy. I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently.

Also I never said I was making a killing selling homes banks took away from families. What I have been doing is fix peoples problems before the bank takes them away helping them have a better future prospect. Problems that I did not create. Problems that I criticized my peers for when they were creating them. There are Charlatans in every industry. Some of those are now out there claiming to have been bears all along yet they have piles for past clients up the river. I do not. I can honestly say that I have one client who I sold a house to that got into trouble and that was due to a divorce. Had that not happened he’d be fine.

The analyst was not a CNBC analyst he was an independent analyst appearing on CNBC. HIs point was not that having a rational argument makes you wrong. What you are missing is that having a rational argument does not always make you right. There is a difference. You dont want to look at both sides of the argument and that is what Rich put so well. It is also what you failed to grasp.

[sdrealtor]

As for when its a good time to buy a house? I dont think there is ever a “good time” to buy a house. There are good opportunities to buy a house at all points in time and the key is finding them.

I bought my 1st property in SD county in 1997 very close to the last bottom. It did not feel like a good time to buy and it felt like I was paying a huge sum for what I got. In hindsight it was a good decision but at the time it did not feel like we got a deal.

[sdrealtor]

As for when its a good time to buy a house? I dont think there is ever a “good time” to buy a house. There are good opportunities to buy a house at all points in time and the key is finding them.

I bought my 1st property in SD county in 1997 very close to the last bottom. It did not feel like a good time to buy and it felt like I was paying a huge sum for what I got. In hindsight it was a good decision but at the time it did not feel like we got a deal.

[sdrealtor]

As for when its a good time to buy a house? I dont think there is ever a “good time” to buy a house. There are good opportunities to buy a house at all points in time and the key is finding them.

I bought my 1st property in SD county in 1997 very close to the last bottom. It did not feel like a good time to buy and it felt like I was paying a huge sum for what I got. In hindsight it was a good decision but at the time it did not feel like we got a deal.

[sdrealtor]

As for when its a good time to buy a house? I dont think there is ever a “good time” to buy a house. There are good opportunities to buy a house at all points in time and the key is finding them.

I bought my 1st property in SD county in 1997 very close to the last bottom. It did not feel like a good time to buy and it felt like I was paying a huge sum for what I got. In hindsight it was a good decision but at the time it did not feel like we got a deal.

[sdrealtor]

As for when its a good time to buy a house? I dont think there is ever a “good time” to buy a house. There are good opportunities to buy a house at all points in time and the key is finding them.

I bought my 1st property in SD county in 1997 very close to the last bottom. It did not feel like a good time to buy and it felt like I was paying a huge sum for what I got. In hindsight it was a good decision but at the time it did not feel like we got a deal.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[sdrealtor]

Nice grabbing a couple words and using them out of context. Limited supply creates stability and upward pressure. That cant be argued. Obviously there are other factors. I look at all factors not just one side. Show me where I said the markets were going up?

FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right.

[sdrealtor]

Nice grabbing a couple words and using them out of context. Limited supply creates stability and upward pressure. That cant be argued. Obviously there are other factors. I look at all factors not just one side. Show me where I said the markets were going up?

FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right.

[sdrealtor]

Nice grabbing a couple words and using them out of context. Limited supply creates stability and upward pressure. That cant be argued. Obviously there are other factors. I look at all factors not just one side. Show me where I said the markets were going up?

FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right.

[sdrealtor]

Nice grabbing a couple words and using them out of context. Limited supply creates stability and upward pressure. That cant be argued. Obviously there are other factors. I look at all factors not just one side. Show me where I said the markets were going up?

FYI, I just checked RealtyTrac in my hood. There are 2 properties showing as auction that is a closed sale. Neither appear as MLS listed. There is another listed as auction (does not appear as mls listed) but is a short sale in process. There is another listed as auction (loan mod in process). There is another pre-foreclosure (does not appear as mls listed) which is short sale in process. I’m having a tough time finding one they got right.

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