The Market this Fall

[sdrealtor]

qwerty
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but patience and due diligence do not entitle you to anything going forward. You have already been rewarded by lower prices and losses you never sustained. But going forward its an even playing field for you and everyone else. Your best option is to be happy you have avoided the carnage and try to keep a clear/fresh perspective going forward. I know thats not the easiest thing to do but its what you need to try to do.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Have you really been losing properties you were interested in to FHA buyers? I just dont see many around here. In fact only 20% down seems to be unusual. I think you are looking at problems in others areas and projecting your frustration to this area. I’m pretty sure you arent competing with FHA buyers around here.[/quote]

It’s all about substitution. If FHA loans are propping up prices in O’side, Escondido, Vista, etc., then our area will be propped up as a result.

It’s the spread between these markets that moves prices, IMHO. If someone can buy a nice place in Escondido for $200K-$300K less, then they’ll be more likely to buy there vs. here. When the price difference is only $75K-$150K, they’ll be more likely to buy here. The manipulation in the mortgage and foreclosure markets is creating artificial price compression which prevents the fluid movement from one area to another that results when the market is free to adjust based on fundamentals.

I know you think this area is “special,” but it was just as “special” relative to other nearby areas twenty years ago. The bottom end fell out before the govt/Fed began manipulating the markets. The deflation was just beginning to hit the mid-high to high ends when the govt/Fed began their interventions. They’ve stalled it for now, but I fully believe they can only do so temporarily (though that could still be years, admittedly).

The same pricing pattern is happening in ALL areas across the nation — it is not just happening here. That makes me think it is more about market manipulations/actions than it is about our area being “different.”

They can’t prevent it forever. If the bottom end can’t work properly, the top end will. It’s just going to take a while longer.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Have you really been losing properties you were interested in to FHA buyers? I just dont see many around here. In fact only 20% down seems to be unusual. I think you are looking at problems in others areas and projecting your frustration to this area. I’m pretty sure you arent competing with FHA buyers around here.[/quote]

It’s all about substitution. If FHA loans are propping up prices in O’side, Escondido, Vista, etc., then our area will be propped up as a result.

It’s the spread between these markets that moves prices, IMHO. If someone can buy a nice place in Escondido for $200K-$300K less, then they’ll be more likely to buy there vs. here. When the price difference is only $75K-$150K, they’ll be more likely to buy here. The manipulation in the mortgage and foreclosure markets is creating artificial price compression which prevents the fluid movement from one area to another that results when the market is free to adjust based on fundamentals.

I know you think this area is “special,” but it was just as “special” relative to other nearby areas twenty years ago. The bottom end fell out before the govt/Fed began manipulating the markets. The deflation was just beginning to hit the mid-high to high ends when the govt/Fed began their interventions. They’ve stalled it for now, but I fully believe they can only do so temporarily (though that could still be years, admittedly).

The same pricing pattern is happening in ALL areas across the nation — it is not just happening here. That makes me think it is more about market manipulations/actions than it is about our area being “different.”

They can’t prevent it forever. If the bottom end can’t work properly, the top end will. It’s just going to take a while longer.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Have you really been losing properties you were interested in to FHA buyers? I just dont see many around here. In fact only 20% down seems to be unusual. I think you are looking at problems in others areas and projecting your frustration to this area. I’m pretty sure you arent competing with FHA buyers around here.[/quote]

It’s all about substitution. If FHA loans are propping up prices in O’side, Escondido, Vista, etc., then our area will be propped up as a result.

It’s the spread between these markets that moves prices, IMHO. If someone can buy a nice place in Escondido for $200K-$300K less, then they’ll be more likely to buy there vs. here. When the price difference is only $75K-$150K, they’ll be more likely to buy here. The manipulation in the mortgage and foreclosure markets is creating artificial price compression which prevents the fluid movement from one area to another that results when the market is free to adjust based on fundamentals.

I know you think this area is “special,” but it was just as “special” relative to other nearby areas twenty years ago. The bottom end fell out before the govt/Fed began manipulating the markets. The deflation was just beginning to hit the mid-high to high ends when the govt/Fed began their interventions. They’ve stalled it for now, but I fully believe they can only do so temporarily (though that could still be years, admittedly).

The same pricing pattern is happening in ALL areas across the nation — it is not just happening here. That makes me think it is more about market manipulations/actions than it is about our area being “different.”

They can’t prevent it forever. If the bottom end can’t work properly, the top end will. It’s just going to take a while longer.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Have you really been losing properties you were interested in to FHA buyers? I just dont see many around here. In fact only 20% down seems to be unusual. I think you are looking at problems in others areas and projecting your frustration to this area. I’m pretty sure you arent competing with FHA buyers around here.[/quote]

It’s all about substitution. If FHA loans are propping up prices in O’side, Escondido, Vista, etc., then our area will be propped up as a result.

It’s the spread between these markets that moves prices, IMHO. If someone can buy a nice place in Escondido for $200K-$300K less, then they’ll be more likely to buy there vs. here. When the price difference is only $75K-$150K, they’ll be more likely to buy here. The manipulation in the mortgage and foreclosure markets is creating artificial price compression which prevents the fluid movement from one area to another that results when the market is free to adjust based on fundamentals.

I know you think this area is “special,” but it was just as “special” relative to other nearby areas twenty years ago. The bottom end fell out before the govt/Fed began manipulating the markets. The deflation was just beginning to hit the mid-high to high ends when the govt/Fed began their interventions. They’ve stalled it for now, but I fully believe they can only do so temporarily (though that could still be years, admittedly).

The same pricing pattern is happening in ALL areas across the nation — it is not just happening here. That makes me think it is more about market manipulations/actions than it is about our area being “different.”

They can’t prevent it forever. If the bottom end can’t work properly, the top end will. It’s just going to take a while longer.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Have you really been losing properties you were interested in to FHA buyers? I just dont see many around here. In fact only 20% down seems to be unusual. I think you are looking at problems in others areas and projecting your frustration to this area. I’m pretty sure you arent competing with FHA buyers around here.[/quote]

It’s all about substitution. If FHA loans are propping up prices in O’side, Escondido, Vista, etc., then our area will be propped up as a result.

It’s the spread between these markets that moves prices, IMHO. If someone can buy a nice place in Escondido for $200K-$300K less, then they’ll be more likely to buy there vs. here. When the price difference is only $75K-$150K, they’ll be more likely to buy here. The manipulation in the mortgage and foreclosure markets is creating artificial price compression which prevents the fluid movement from one area to another that results when the market is free to adjust based on fundamentals.

I know you think this area is “special,” but it was just as “special” relative to other nearby areas twenty years ago. The bottom end fell out before the govt/Fed began manipulating the markets. The deflation was just beginning to hit the mid-high to high ends when the govt/Fed began their interventions. They’ve stalled it for now, but I fully believe they can only do so temporarily (though that could still be years, admittedly).

The same pricing pattern is happening in ALL areas across the nation — it is not just happening here. That makes me think it is more about market manipulations/actions than it is about our area being “different.”

They can’t prevent it forever. If the bottom end can’t work properly, the top end will. It’s just going to take a while longer.

[pemeliza]

CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.

[pemeliza]

CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.

[pemeliza]

CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.

[pemeliza]

CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.

[pemeliza]

CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.

[CA renter]

[quote=pemeliza]CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.[/quote]

Okay, let’s say there are ten buyers, each with $700K CASH who want to buy a nice house in a nice area.

If these buyers were presented with a nice house/area for $625K in Escondido, and a nice (fairly equivalent) house/area for $700K in Encinitas, they would all probably choose the $700K house in Encinitas.

However, if that same house in Escondido was being offered for $450K, while the Encinitas house was still being offered for $700K, I’d bet good money that at least three or four of those buyers would consider the Escondido house, and at least 2-3 would indeed buy there.

That’s the case with us. We have always actively looked in Escondido as we prefer the lots, houses, general feel, etc. to the coastal area. We prefer the coast only because of the commute, as we don’t want to have to deal with Del Dios every day. That being said, if a great house came on the market in Escondido at a significant enough discount relative to coastal prices, we’d jump on it.

It’s the price compression that makes us focus more out here on the coast. If that price compression dissipates, we’ll move. I know many other people who feel exactly the same. At some point the cost/benefit analysis shows that it makes much better sense to buy in a “less desirable” area. Right now, that’s not the case for us.

Hope that clarifies things a bit.
—————-

BTW, if you think that all the manipulation is not affecting prices, then why do you think they’re so insistent upon forcing rates to artificial lows, buying up mortgages, paying people to buy houses, backstopping the entire mortgage market (as ~90% of our mortgage market is supported by the govt), etc.?

What do they know that we do not?

[CA renter]

[quote=pemeliza]CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.[/quote]

Okay, let’s say there are ten buyers, each with $700K CASH who want to buy a nice house in a nice area.

If these buyers were presented with a nice house/area for $625K in Escondido, and a nice (fairly equivalent) house/area for $700K in Encinitas, they would all probably choose the $700K house in Encinitas.

However, if that same house in Escondido was being offered for $450K, while the Encinitas house was still being offered for $700K, I’d bet good money that at least three or four of those buyers would consider the Escondido house, and at least 2-3 would indeed buy there.

That’s the case with us. We have always actively looked in Escondido as we prefer the lots, houses, general feel, etc. to the coastal area. We prefer the coast only because of the commute, as we don’t want to have to deal with Del Dios every day. That being said, if a great house came on the market in Escondido at a significant enough discount relative to coastal prices, we’d jump on it.

It’s the price compression that makes us focus more out here on the coast. If that price compression dissipates, we’ll move. I know many other people who feel exactly the same. At some point the cost/benefit analysis shows that it makes much better sense to buy in a “less desirable” area. Right now, that’s not the case for us.

Hope that clarifies things a bit.
—————-

BTW, if you think that all the manipulation is not affecting prices, then why do you think they’re so insistent upon forcing rates to artificial lows, buying up mortgages, paying people to buy houses, backstopping the entire mortgage market (as ~90% of our mortgage market is supported by the govt), etc.?

What do they know that we do not?

[CA renter]

[quote=pemeliza]CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.[/quote]

Okay, let’s say there are ten buyers, each with $700K CASH who want to buy a nice house in a nice area.

If these buyers were presented with a nice house/area for $625K in Escondido, and a nice (fairly equivalent) house/area for $700K in Encinitas, they would all probably choose the $700K house in Encinitas.

However, if that same house in Escondido was being offered for $450K, while the Encinitas house was still being offered for $700K, I’d bet good money that at least three or four of those buyers would consider the Escondido house, and at least 2-3 would indeed buy there.

That’s the case with us. We have always actively looked in Escondido as we prefer the lots, houses, general feel, etc. to the coastal area. We prefer the coast only because of the commute, as we don’t want to have to deal with Del Dios every day. That being said, if a great house came on the market in Escondido at a significant enough discount relative to coastal prices, we’d jump on it.

It’s the price compression that makes us focus more out here on the coast. If that price compression dissipates, we’ll move. I know many other people who feel exactly the same. At some point the cost/benefit analysis shows that it makes much better sense to buy in a “less desirable” area. Right now, that’s not the case for us.

Hope that clarifies things a bit.
—————-

BTW, if you think that all the manipulation is not affecting prices, then why do you think they’re so insistent upon forcing rates to artificial lows, buying up mortgages, paying people to buy houses, backstopping the entire mortgage market (as ~90% of our mortgage market is supported by the govt), etc.?

What do they know that we do not?

[CA renter]

[quote=pemeliza]CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.[/quote]

Okay, let’s say there are ten buyers, each with $700K CASH who want to buy a nice house in a nice area.

If these buyers were presented with a nice house/area for $625K in Escondido, and a nice (fairly equivalent) house/area for $700K in Encinitas, they would all probably choose the $700K house in Encinitas.

However, if that same house in Escondido was being offered for $450K, while the Encinitas house was still being offered for $700K, I’d bet good money that at least three or four of those buyers would consider the Escondido house, and at least 2-3 would indeed buy there.

That’s the case with us. We have always actively looked in Escondido as we prefer the lots, houses, general feel, etc. to the coastal area. We prefer the coast only because of the commute, as we don’t want to have to deal with Del Dios every day. That being said, if a great house came on the market in Escondido at a significant enough discount relative to coastal prices, we’d jump on it.

It’s the price compression that makes us focus more out here on the coast. If that price compression dissipates, we’ll move. I know many other people who feel exactly the same. At some point the cost/benefit analysis shows that it makes much better sense to buy in a “less desirable” area. Right now, that’s not the case for us.

Hope that clarifies things a bit.
—————-

BTW, if you think that all the manipulation is not affecting prices, then why do you think they’re so insistent upon forcing rates to artificial lows, buying up mortgages, paying people to buy houses, backstopping the entire mortgage market (as ~90% of our mortgage market is supported by the govt), etc.?

What do they know that we do not?

[Author]

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