The Market this Fall

[Scarlett]

[quote=svelte]No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).

You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]

My thoughts exactly. For me, that time is about a year from now – personal reasons.

By definition I am FT buyer, since I haven’t owned in 3 years. But I did, and I barely got out without losing much. Bought in 2004, you see. So I almost got burned. I am thinking twice and thrice now about getting into a huge debt.

I don’t think it’s going to be a steep leg down, more like a ultra-slow decline if any. I have young kids, I can’t keep renting and moving forever. I want a relatively nice, stable home for my family.

[waiting hawk]

[quote]

I can put down 20% if needed…buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, [/quote]

No way. You have to go for the houses that will not go FHA and only conv as I did. But then you run into the all cash dudes that can wipe you out like they almost did on my primary. Stay with the fixes and go minimum 10% down for conv loan (with pmi anything under 20% down). That is your best bet.

[waiting hawk]

[quote]

I can put down 20% if needed…buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, [/quote]

No way. You have to go for the houses that will not go FHA and only conv as I did. But then you run into the all cash dudes that can wipe you out like they almost did on my primary. Stay with the fixes and go minimum 10% down for conv loan (with pmi anything under 20% down). That is your best bet.

[waiting hawk]

[quote]

I can put down 20% if needed…buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, [/quote]

No way. You have to go for the houses that will not go FHA and only conv as I did. But then you run into the all cash dudes that can wipe you out like they almost did on my primary. Stay with the fixes and go minimum 10% down for conv loan (with pmi anything under 20% down). That is your best bet.

[waiting hawk]

[quote]

I can put down 20% if needed…buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, [/quote]

No way. You have to go for the houses that will not go FHA and only conv as I did. But then you run into the all cash dudes that can wipe you out like they almost did on my primary. Stay with the fixes and go minimum 10% down for conv loan (with pmi anything under 20% down). That is your best bet.

[waiting hawk]

[quote]

I can put down 20% if needed…buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, [/quote]

No way. You have to go for the houses that will not go FHA and only conv as I did. But then you run into the all cash dudes that can wipe you out like they almost did on my primary. Stay with the fixes and go minimum 10% down for conv loan (with pmi anything under 20% down). That is your best bet.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Ready411]Decent neighborhood – nicer parts of Clairemont, Linda Vista, Tierrasanta, Del Cerro, Normal Heights, etc. We know the areas within these communities can vary quite a bit.[/quote]

Ready411, when you mentioned “Central SD,” I took that to mean “Central SD.” The only community you have mentioned here that you are interested in that is located in “Central SD” is Normal Heights.

These other communities are in “North City” or “North SD.” I believe you absolutely can find a property in your price range in “North San Diego” which will be a cosmetic fixer or low-cost rehab between 25-50 yrs. old and with more SF than properties in “Central SD.”[/quote]

The areas mentioned actually have been labelled central San Diego for some time. (for example, look here
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sdhomes/area_homesales/pastyears-1998.php)

I think the confusion here is that they were probably once referred to as Central San Diego County, as opposed to Central San Diego (city), which appears to be your perspective.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Ready411]Decent neighborhood – nicer parts of Clairemont, Linda Vista, Tierrasanta, Del Cerro, Normal Heights, etc. We know the areas within these communities can vary quite a bit.[/quote]

Ready411, when you mentioned “Central SD,” I took that to mean “Central SD.” The only community you have mentioned here that you are interested in that is located in “Central SD” is Normal Heights.

These other communities are in “North City” or “North SD.” I believe you absolutely can find a property in your price range in “North San Diego” which will be a cosmetic fixer or low-cost rehab between 25-50 yrs. old and with more SF than properties in “Central SD.”[/quote]

The areas mentioned actually have been labelled central San Diego for some time. (for example, look here
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sdhomes/area_homesales/pastyears-1998.php)

I think the confusion here is that they were probably once referred to as Central San Diego County, as opposed to Central San Diego (city), which appears to be your perspective.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Ready411]Decent neighborhood – nicer parts of Clairemont, Linda Vista, Tierrasanta, Del Cerro, Normal Heights, etc. We know the areas within these communities can vary quite a bit.[/quote]

Ready411, when you mentioned “Central SD,” I took that to mean “Central SD.” The only community you have mentioned here that you are interested in that is located in “Central SD” is Normal Heights.

These other communities are in “North City” or “North SD.” I believe you absolutely can find a property in your price range in “North San Diego” which will be a cosmetic fixer or low-cost rehab between 25-50 yrs. old and with more SF than properties in “Central SD.”[/quote]

The areas mentioned actually have been labelled central San Diego for some time. (for example, look here
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sdhomes/area_homesales/pastyears-1998.php)

I think the confusion here is that they were probably once referred to as Central San Diego County, as opposed to Central San Diego (city), which appears to be your perspective.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Ready411]Decent neighborhood – nicer parts of Clairemont, Linda Vista, Tierrasanta, Del Cerro, Normal Heights, etc. We know the areas within these communities can vary quite a bit.[/quote]

Ready411, when you mentioned “Central SD,” I took that to mean “Central SD.” The only community you have mentioned here that you are interested in that is located in “Central SD” is Normal Heights.

These other communities are in “North City” or “North SD.” I believe you absolutely can find a property in your price range in “North San Diego” which will be a cosmetic fixer or low-cost rehab between 25-50 yrs. old and with more SF than properties in “Central SD.”[/quote]

The areas mentioned actually have been labelled central San Diego for some time. (for example, look here
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sdhomes/area_homesales/pastyears-1998.php)

I think the confusion here is that they were probably once referred to as Central San Diego County, as opposed to Central San Diego (city), which appears to be your perspective.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Ready411]Decent neighborhood – nicer parts of Clairemont, Linda Vista, Tierrasanta, Del Cerro, Normal Heights, etc. We know the areas within these communities can vary quite a bit.[/quote]

Ready411, when you mentioned “Central SD,” I took that to mean “Central SD.” The only community you have mentioned here that you are interested in that is located in “Central SD” is Normal Heights.

These other communities are in “North City” or “North SD.” I believe you absolutely can find a property in your price range in “North San Diego” which will be a cosmetic fixer or low-cost rehab between 25-50 yrs. old and with more SF than properties in “Central SD.”[/quote]

The areas mentioned actually have been labelled central San Diego for some time. (for example, look here
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sdhomes/area_homesales/pastyears-1998.php)

I think the confusion here is that they were probably once referred to as Central San Diego County, as opposed to Central San Diego (city), which appears to be your perspective.

[afx114]

I’m in the same boat as you Ready411. Decent down payment after many years of saving, looking in the uptown areas. I understand that desirability is high and availability is low in the areas we are looking, and that makes us feel as if prices are still “too high” in these areas. But given the desirability/availability ratio, it makes sense for affordability to suffer. So we are not deluded that we will be able to find a place in these areas for the price we want to pay — even fixer uppers.

Given that, our options are to wait or look elsewhere. We could easily afford a bigger place on a bigger lot further out east like La Mesa or south like Chula Vista. But we place a high value on things like walkability and availability of things like parks, restaurants, bars, cafes, etc. So this is our predicament. Settle for an easily affordable “nicer” place out in the burbs, or wait for a smaller maybe “less nice” place in the urban core. At this point we have decided on waiting for a couple reasons.

First, the longer we wait, the larger our down payment becomes. As it grows, the affordability of the more expensive places in the areas we want become more affordable to us (in the monthly payment sense).

Second, we are expecting prices to come down a bit more, or at least stay the same or similar. I am no expert, but this is my educated guess based on what I’ve gathered reading the experts on this and other boards/blogs/sites over the years.

I suppose an additional reason why we don’t mind waiting is that we love the place that we are currently renting and we do so at a great price. This makes waiting that much easier and makes it harder to justify moving to a less-enjoyable place at a higher monthly mortgage for the priviledge of calling it our own.

We envision 2 values on a graph. One line is the max value of home we feel comfortable buying. This goes up as our down payment goes up over time. The other line represents the “average” home value in the areas we are looking. This line can go up or down depending on home prices. These two lines will cross at some point, and we look at this point as the sweet spot where we pounce. These lines will cross sooner if prices go down (or stabilize). They will cross later if prices rise. But either way they will cross at some time, and when they do we will be ready.

Again, I am no expert, so don’t take my anecdotes as anything but anecdotes. Just wanted to provide some insight on how someone in a similar position as you is approaching the situation. Each buyer and their specific situation is different and should be evaluated accordingly.

[afx114]

I’m in the same boat as you Ready411. Decent down payment after many years of saving, looking in the uptown areas. I understand that desirability is high and availability is low in the areas we are looking, and that makes us feel as if prices are still “too high” in these areas. But given the desirability/availability ratio, it makes sense for affordability to suffer. So we are not deluded that we will be able to find a place in these areas for the price we want to pay — even fixer uppers.

Given that, our options are to wait or look elsewhere. We could easily afford a bigger place on a bigger lot further out east like La Mesa or south like Chula Vista. But we place a high value on things like walkability and availability of things like parks, restaurants, bars, cafes, etc. So this is our predicament. Settle for an easily affordable “nicer” place out in the burbs, or wait for a smaller maybe “less nice” place in the urban core. At this point we have decided on waiting for a couple reasons.

First, the longer we wait, the larger our down payment becomes. As it grows, the affordability of the more expensive places in the areas we want become more affordable to us (in the monthly payment sense).

Second, we are expecting prices to come down a bit more, or at least stay the same or similar. I am no expert, but this is my educated guess based on what I’ve gathered reading the experts on this and other boards/blogs/sites over the years.

I suppose an additional reason why we don’t mind waiting is that we love the place that we are currently renting and we do so at a great price. This makes waiting that much easier and makes it harder to justify moving to a less-enjoyable place at a higher monthly mortgage for the priviledge of calling it our own.

We envision 2 values on a graph. One line is the max value of home we feel comfortable buying. This goes up as our down payment goes up over time. The other line represents the “average” home value in the areas we are looking. This line can go up or down depending on home prices. These two lines will cross at some point, and we look at this point as the sweet spot where we pounce. These lines will cross sooner if prices go down (or stabilize). They will cross later if prices rise. But either way they will cross at some time, and when they do we will be ready.

Again, I am no expert, so don’t take my anecdotes as anything but anecdotes. Just wanted to provide some insight on how someone in a similar position as you is approaching the situation. Each buyer and their specific situation is different and should be evaluated accordingly.

[afx114]

I’m in the same boat as you Ready411. Decent down payment after many years of saving, looking in the uptown areas. I understand that desirability is high and availability is low in the areas we are looking, and that makes us feel as if prices are still “too high” in these areas. But given the desirability/availability ratio, it makes sense for affordability to suffer. So we are not deluded that we will be able to find a place in these areas for the price we want to pay — even fixer uppers.

Given that, our options are to wait or look elsewhere. We could easily afford a bigger place on a bigger lot further out east like La Mesa or south like Chula Vista. But we place a high value on things like walkability and availability of things like parks, restaurants, bars, cafes, etc. So this is our predicament. Settle for an easily affordable “nicer” place out in the burbs, or wait for a smaller maybe “less nice” place in the urban core. At this point we have decided on waiting for a couple reasons.

First, the longer we wait, the larger our down payment becomes. As it grows, the affordability of the more expensive places in the areas we want become more affordable to us (in the monthly payment sense).

Second, we are expecting prices to come down a bit more, or at least stay the same or similar. I am no expert, but this is my educated guess based on what I’ve gathered reading the experts on this and other boards/blogs/sites over the years.

I suppose an additional reason why we don’t mind waiting is that we love the place that we are currently renting and we do so at a great price. This makes waiting that much easier and makes it harder to justify moving to a less-enjoyable place at a higher monthly mortgage for the priviledge of calling it our own.

We envision 2 values on a graph. One line is the max value of home we feel comfortable buying. This goes up as our down payment goes up over time. The other line represents the “average” home value in the areas we are looking. This line can go up or down depending on home prices. These two lines will cross at some point, and we look at this point as the sweet spot where we pounce. These lines will cross sooner if prices go down (or stabilize). They will cross later if prices rise. But either way they will cross at some time, and when they do we will be ready.

Again, I am no expert, so don’t take my anecdotes as anything but anecdotes. Just wanted to provide some insight on how someone in a similar position as you is approaching the situation. Each buyer and their specific situation is different and should be evaluated accordingly.

[afx114]

I’m in the same boat as you Ready411. Decent down payment after many years of saving, looking in the uptown areas. I understand that desirability is high and availability is low in the areas we are looking, and that makes us feel as if prices are still “too high” in these areas. But given the desirability/availability ratio, it makes sense for affordability to suffer. So we are not deluded that we will be able to find a place in these areas for the price we want to pay — even fixer uppers.

Given that, our options are to wait or look elsewhere. We could easily afford a bigger place on a bigger lot further out east like La Mesa or south like Chula Vista. But we place a high value on things like walkability and availability of things like parks, restaurants, bars, cafes, etc. So this is our predicament. Settle for an easily affordable “nicer” place out in the burbs, or wait for a smaller maybe “less nice” place in the urban core. At this point we have decided on waiting for a couple reasons.

First, the longer we wait, the larger our down payment becomes. As it grows, the affordability of the more expensive places in the areas we want become more affordable to us (in the monthly payment sense).

Second, we are expecting prices to come down a bit more, or at least stay the same or similar. I am no expert, but this is my educated guess based on what I’ve gathered reading the experts on this and other boards/blogs/sites over the years.

I suppose an additional reason why we don’t mind waiting is that we love the place that we are currently renting and we do so at a great price. This makes waiting that much easier and makes it harder to justify moving to a less-enjoyable place at a higher monthly mortgage for the priviledge of calling it our own.

We envision 2 values on a graph. One line is the max value of home we feel comfortable buying. This goes up as our down payment goes up over time. The other line represents the “average” home value in the areas we are looking. This line can go up or down depending on home prices. These two lines will cross at some point, and we look at this point as the sweet spot where we pounce. These lines will cross sooner if prices go down (or stabilize). They will cross later if prices rise. But either way they will cross at some time, and when they do we will be ready.

Again, I am no expert, so don’t take my anecdotes as anything but anecdotes. Just wanted to provide some insight on how someone in a similar position as you is approaching the situation. Each buyer and their specific situation is different and should be evaluated accordingly.

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