The Market this Fall

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Ready411]Decent neighborhood – nicer parts of Clairemont, Linda Vista, Tierrasanta, Del Cerro, Normal Heights, etc. We know the areas within these communities can vary quite a bit.[/quote]

Ready411, when you mentioned “Central SD,” I took that to mean “Central SD.” The only community you have mentioned here that you are interested in that is located in “Central SD” is Normal Heights.

These other communities are in “North City” or “North SD.” I believe you absolutely can find a property in your price range in “North San Diego” which will be a cosmetic fixer or low-cost rehab between 25-50 yrs. old and with more SF than properties in “Central SD.”

[DWCAP]

General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)

[DWCAP]

General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)

[DWCAP]

General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)

[DWCAP]

General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)

[DWCAP]

General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)

[t36tran]

[quote=DWCAP]General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)[/quote]

I can put down 20% if needed, but it took years of driving a crappy car, living in a cheap apartment, and not eating out often to get the money saved. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that I am in the minority. Seems there are more 1st time buyers buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, it will change the entry level market because they have a different view on the value of money. Historically, interest rates from the depression era to present day averaged around 8%. If the government ever gets out of the way, I believe interest rates can be there again. Assuming prices adjust accordly, this would drastically change the dynamic between a buyer with 20% vs 3.5%. I do not believe the government can keep rates low forever, but it might be longer than I can stay sane.

[t36tran]

[quote=DWCAP]General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)[/quote]

I can put down 20% if needed, but it took years of driving a crappy car, living in a cheap apartment, and not eating out often to get the money saved. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that I am in the minority. Seems there are more 1st time buyers buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, it will change the entry level market because they have a different view on the value of money. Historically, interest rates from the depression era to present day averaged around 8%. If the government ever gets out of the way, I believe interest rates can be there again. Assuming prices adjust accordly, this would drastically change the dynamic between a buyer with 20% vs 3.5%. I do not believe the government can keep rates low forever, but it might be longer than I can stay sane.

[t36tran]

[quote=DWCAP]General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)[/quote]

I can put down 20% if needed, but it took years of driving a crappy car, living in a cheap apartment, and not eating out often to get the money saved. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that I am in the minority. Seems there are more 1st time buyers buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, it will change the entry level market because they have a different view on the value of money. Historically, interest rates from the depression era to present day averaged around 8%. If the government ever gets out of the way, I believe interest rates can be there again. Assuming prices adjust accordly, this would drastically change the dynamic between a buyer with 20% vs 3.5%. I do not believe the government can keep rates low forever, but it might be longer than I can stay sane.

[t36tran]

[quote=DWCAP]General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)[/quote]

I can put down 20% if needed, but it took years of driving a crappy car, living in a cheap apartment, and not eating out often to get the money saved. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that I am in the minority. Seems there are more 1st time buyers buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, it will change the entry level market because they have a different view on the value of money. Historically, interest rates from the depression era to present day averaged around 8%. If the government ever gets out of the way, I believe interest rates can be there again. Assuming prices adjust accordly, this would drastically change the dynamic between a buyer with 20% vs 3.5%. I do not believe the government can keep rates low forever, but it might be longer than I can stay sane.

[t36tran]

[quote=DWCAP]General consensus is that the lower ranges, especially the areas you are looking in, have bottomed and rebounded. The demand levels in your areas at those prices is very high, not too far off of rental cash flow. Basically, I dont think that houses in your area/price are going to keep falling alot. Maybe +/- 5-10%, but the vast majority of the correction is prob over. If you cant take a 5% loss, on paper, I worry about your future as a homeowner.

Having said that these area are also the most sensitive to loan availablility and interest rate affordability. Perhaps I am wrong, but these are the areas I think of being affected the most when I see stories about how FHA is writing more loans than GSE’s. This is neither sustainable or advisable as public policy. (3.5% DP loans with taxcredit kickers stink just like 0% as both are imediatly underwater without appreciation).
I just dont believe we will see the end of the next decade (2020) without some serious inflation, as too many governments owe too much money. You wont see it now, and you wont see it in 2011, so you have time to buy at low interest rates, but dont expect them to last at 4.5-5.5 forever. How do you think streched loans/values are gonna fair when/if interest rates went to a measly 7%?
To make matters worse, I feel that the offical governement inflation indicatiors intentionally underreport inflation. This underreporting does three things, keeps interest rates low as long as people believe it, allows for increasing loose monitary policy (which is politically popular), and sets the stage for reduced liabilities in the world of SS and Medicare in the future. It isnt gonna stop.

So what is the point of all that? If you want to buy a house becuase it is a place for you to live with your family for years and years, then nearly all of the risk is played out and you should PATIENTLY wait for a house to show up that you find acceptable. (The beauty of slowly releasing REO inventory is that it isnt a sprint but rather a marathon and you have time.)[/quote]

I can put down 20% if needed, but it took years of driving a crappy car, living in a cheap apartment, and not eating out often to get the money saved. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that I am in the minority. Seems there are more 1st time buyers buying on a whim doing the 3.5% down FHA loans. That’s my problem. If this is the new standard, and these are the people I will have to compete against, it will change the entry level market because they have a different view on the value of money. Historically, interest rates from the depression era to present day averaged around 8%. If the government ever gets out of the way, I believe interest rates can be there again. Assuming prices adjust accordly, this would drastically change the dynamic between a buyer with 20% vs 3.5%. I do not believe the government can keep rates low forever, but it might be longer than I can stay sane.

[Scarlett]

[quote=svelte]No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).

You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]

My thoughts exactly. For me, that time is about a year from now – personal reasons.

By definition I am FT buyer, since I haven’t owned in 3 years. But I did, and I barely got out without losing much. Bought in 2004, you see. So I almost got burned. I am thinking twice and thrice now about getting into a huge debt.

I don’t think it’s going to be a steep leg down, more like a ultra-slow decline if any. I have young kids, I can’t keep renting and moving forever. I want a relatively nice, stable home for my family.

[Scarlett]

[quote=svelte]No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).

You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]

My thoughts exactly. For me, that time is about a year from now – personal reasons.

By definition I am FT buyer, since I haven’t owned in 3 years. But I did, and I barely got out without losing much. Bought in 2004, you see. So I almost got burned. I am thinking twice and thrice now about getting into a huge debt.

I don’t think it’s going to be a steep leg down, more like a ultra-slow decline if any. I have young kids, I can’t keep renting and moving forever. I want a relatively nice, stable home for my family.

[Scarlett]

[quote=svelte]No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).

You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]

My thoughts exactly. For me, that time is about a year from now – personal reasons.

By definition I am FT buyer, since I haven’t owned in 3 years. But I did, and I barely got out without losing much. Bought in 2004, you see. So I almost got burned. I am thinking twice and thrice now about getting into a huge debt.

I don’t think it’s going to be a steep leg down, more like a ultra-slow decline if any. I have young kids, I can’t keep renting and moving forever. I want a relatively nice, stable home for my family.

[Scarlett]

[quote=svelte]No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).

You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]

My thoughts exactly. For me, that time is about a year from now – personal reasons.

By definition I am FT buyer, since I haven’t owned in 3 years. But I did, and I barely got out without losing much. Bought in 2004, you see. So I almost got burned. I am thinking twice and thrice now about getting into a huge debt.

I don’t think it’s going to be a steep leg down, more like a ultra-slow decline if any. I have young kids, I can’t keep renting and moving forever. I want a relatively nice, stable home for my family.

[Author]

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