- This topic has 8 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 8 months ago by
(former)FormerSanDiegan.
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June 18, 2007 at 2:44 PM #9333June 18, 2007 at 4:00 PM #60182
poorgradstudent
ParticipantI think there’s more new names in general lately, probably a sign of more people interested in the real estate bubble, specifically local impact, as the mainstream media continues reporting on it. Most of the people who stick around range from moderately to extremely bearish, while newbies probably run the full spectrum.
June 18, 2007 at 4:00 PM #60214poorgradstudent
ParticipantI think there’s more new names in general lately, probably a sign of more people interested in the real estate bubble, specifically local impact, as the mainstream media continues reporting on it. Most of the people who stick around range from moderately to extremely bearish, while newbies probably run the full spectrum.
June 18, 2007 at 4:27 PM #60201Bugs
ParticipantI dunno about most of the bulls being trolls. I think that most of them just don’t have a handle on any of the data or the mind-numbing analyses it takes to glean any meaning from the data to even have opinions of their own yet. They mostly seem to be parroting back the lines that the NAR and MSM were feeding them for all these years.
A lot of people made a lot of money by following that herd in the past. I can see why some of them are reluctant to recognize that over the long haul the market runs in tandem with the trend for wages and population.
June 18, 2007 at 4:27 PM #60233Bugs
ParticipantI dunno about most of the bulls being trolls. I think that most of them just don’t have a handle on any of the data or the mind-numbing analyses it takes to glean any meaning from the data to even have opinions of their own yet. They mostly seem to be parroting back the lines that the NAR and MSM were feeding them for all these years.
A lot of people made a lot of money by following that herd in the past. I can see why some of them are reluctant to recognize that over the long haul the market runs in tandem with the trend for wages and population.
June 19, 2007 at 10:21 AM #60415JWM in SD
ParticipantI don’t completely agree bugs. These posts are fairly regular and definitely have a bias.
June 19, 2007 at 10:21 AM #60448JWM in SD
ParticipantI don’t completely agree bugs. These posts are fairly regular and definitely have a bias.
June 19, 2007 at 10:35 AM #60425(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI actually think it’s healthy to see these posts occasionally.
(Just maybe not as often as they happen). It’s a good idea to review current conditions every 3-6 months, re-think the logic and re-do the math. If a housing bull assumed that prices rise 12% per year and get it stuck in their head, they may be in trouble now. Conversely, if a housing bear assumes that prices will drop 40% from the peak and get that stuck in their head, they might miss the fact that by 2010 inflation will have already eaten up 15-20% and the 20% nominal price drop is the bottom. (the preceding numbers were for purposes of illustration and not an actual prediction… well, unless it actually happens that way).Knowledge comes from questioning your assumptions.
June 19, 2007 at 10:35 AM #60458(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI actually think it’s healthy to see these posts occasionally.
(Just maybe not as often as they happen). It’s a good idea to review current conditions every 3-6 months, re-think the logic and re-do the math. If a housing bull assumed that prices rise 12% per year and get it stuck in their head, they may be in trouble now. Conversely, if a housing bear assumes that prices will drop 40% from the peak and get that stuck in their head, they might miss the fact that by 2010 inflation will have already eaten up 15-20% and the 20% nominal price drop is the bottom. (the preceding numbers were for purposes of illustration and not an actual prediction… well, unless it actually happens that way).Knowledge comes from questioning your assumptions.
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