The “bottom” for various neighborhoods in SD

[La Jolla Renter]

sdrealtor… you hit it… bottom is when rent = buy.

Maybe in Temecula/Chula Vista etc., it even over shoots rent = buy a bit.

I can’t put a time on it. The news is as bad as I could have expect and lots of buying still going on.

As for La Jolla, I really don’t see that single family homes have even gone back to the 2005 peak.

[gn]

A slight contrarian stance, I am operating under the assumption that the bottom in RSF (and perhaps some of the surrounding communities) will bottom out by the end of Q1 2009.

This is impossible. Here's why:

Any seasoned real estate professional will tell you that most real estate transactions are "upgrades". That is, in order for a John Doe to buy a $1mil house he most likely would need to sell his $700k house. The buyer who will buy John Doe's house would need to sell his $450k house. This "chain of buyers" extends from the condo buyers to the buyers of the most expensive houses.

Of course, there are buyers who have the money to buy an expensive house without needing to sell first. But, these buyers are in the minority. Most transactions are either "entry-level" or "near entry-level" or upgrades. SD Reator & sdrealtor, am I right ?

With that said, in a downturn, the less expensive areas get affected first. Then, the "contagion" works its way upward. It is impossible for RSF to "bottom" out before the less expensive areas.

By the way, this is why prices in RSF are still holding firm, because the "contagion" hasn't really arrived yet. But, it surely will. As Bugs would tell you: no area is immune.

[gn]

A slight contrarian stance, I am operating under the assumption that the bottom in RSF (and perhaps some of the surrounding communities) will bottom out by the end of Q1 2009.

This is impossible. Here's why:

Any seasoned real estate professional will tell you that most real estate transactions are "upgrades". That is, in order for a John Doe to buy a $1mil house he most likely would need to sell his $700k house. The buyer who will buy John Doe's house would need to sell his $450k house. This "chain of buyers" extends from the condo buyers to the buyers of the most expensive houses.

Of course, there are buyers who have the money to buy an expensive house without needing to sell first. But, these buyers are in the minority. Most transactions are either "entry-level" or "near entry-level" or upgrades. SD Reator & sdrealtor, am I right ?

With that said, in a downturn, the less expensive areas get affected first. Then, the "contagion" works its way upward. It is impossible for RSF to "bottom" out before the less expensive areas.

By the way, this is why prices in RSF are still holding firm, because the "contagion" hasn't really arrived yet. But, it surely will. As Bugs would tell you: no area is immune.

[gn]

A slight contrarian stance, I am operating under the assumption that the bottom in RSF (and perhaps some of the surrounding communities) will bottom out by the end of Q1 2009.

This is impossible. Here's why:

Any seasoned real estate professional will tell you that most real estate transactions are "upgrades". That is, in order for a John Doe to buy a $1mil house he most likely would need to sell his $700k house. The buyer who will buy John Doe's house would need to sell his $450k house. This "chain of buyers" extends from the condo buyers to the buyers of the most expensive houses.

Of course, there are buyers who have the money to buy an expensive house without needing to sell first. But, these buyers are in the minority. Most transactions are either "entry-level" or "near entry-level" or upgrades. SD Reator & sdrealtor, am I right ?

With that said, in a downturn, the less expensive areas get affected first. Then, the "contagion" works its way upward. It is impossible for RSF to "bottom" out before the less expensive areas.

By the way, this is why prices in RSF are still holding firm, because the "contagion" hasn't really arrived yet. But, it surely will. As Bugs would tell you: no area is immune.

[gn]

A slight contrarian stance, I am operating under the assumption that the bottom in RSF (and perhaps some of the surrounding communities) will bottom out by the end of Q1 2009.

This is impossible. Here's why:

Any seasoned real estate professional will tell you that most real estate transactions are "upgrades". That is, in order for a John Doe to buy a $1mil house he most likely would need to sell his $700k house. The buyer who will buy John Doe's house would need to sell his $450k house. This "chain of buyers" extends from the condo buyers to the buyers of the most expensive houses.

Of course, there are buyers who have the money to buy an expensive house without needing to sell first. But, these buyers are in the minority. Most transactions are either "entry-level" or "near entry-level" or upgrades. SD Reator & sdrealtor, am I right ?

With that said, in a downturn, the less expensive areas get affected first. Then, the "contagion" works its way upward. It is impossible for RSF to "bottom" out before the less expensive areas.

By the way, this is why prices in RSF are still holding firm, because the "contagion" hasn't really arrived yet. But, it surely will. As Bugs would tell you: no area is immune.

[gn]

A slight contrarian stance, I am operating under the assumption that the bottom in RSF (and perhaps some of the surrounding communities) will bottom out by the end of Q1 2009.

This is impossible. Here's why:

Any seasoned real estate professional will tell you that most real estate transactions are "upgrades". That is, in order for a John Doe to buy a $1mil house he most likely would need to sell his $700k house. The buyer who will buy John Doe's house would need to sell his $450k house. This "chain of buyers" extends from the condo buyers to the buyers of the most expensive houses.

Of course, there are buyers who have the money to buy an expensive house without needing to sell first. But, these buyers are in the minority. Most transactions are either "entry-level" or "near entry-level" or upgrades. SD Reator & sdrealtor, am I right ?

With that said, in a downturn, the less expensive areas get affected first. Then, the "contagion" works its way upward. It is impossible for RSF to "bottom" out before the less expensive areas.

By the way, this is why prices in RSF are still holding firm, because the "contagion" hasn't really arrived yet. But, it surely will. As Bugs would tell you: no area is immune.

[Anonymous]

The dates seem reasonable to me, but consider that they are based (I assume) mostly on what has already happened/is happening now with regard to interest rates, foreclosures and other market data that was used to come up with these guesstimates. What happens when we consider that we are likely entering a national recession that could bring with it large numbers of job losses this next year or two. Keep in mind that this is what caused the last housing collapse in the early 90s (I believe I am correct in saying this), and we have yet to see the impact significant job losses and a recession will have locally and in Riverside Cty. It seems premature to me to say that areas like Temecula will bottom out in the 4th quarter this year when so many jobs up there could be at risk if the economy tanks.

[Anonymous]

The dates seem reasonable to me, but consider that they are based (I assume) mostly on what has already happened/is happening now with regard to interest rates, foreclosures and other market data that was used to come up with these guesstimates. What happens when we consider that we are likely entering a national recession that could bring with it large numbers of job losses this next year or two. Keep in mind that this is what caused the last housing collapse in the early 90s (I believe I am correct in saying this), and we have yet to see the impact significant job losses and a recession will have locally and in Riverside Cty. It seems premature to me to say that areas like Temecula will bottom out in the 4th quarter this year when so many jobs up there could be at risk if the economy tanks.

[Anonymous]

The dates seem reasonable to me, but consider that they are based (I assume) mostly on what has already happened/is happening now with regard to interest rates, foreclosures and other market data that was used to come up with these guesstimates. What happens when we consider that we are likely entering a national recession that could bring with it large numbers of job losses this next year or two. Keep in mind that this is what caused the last housing collapse in the early 90s (I believe I am correct in saying this), and we have yet to see the impact significant job losses and a recession will have locally and in Riverside Cty. It seems premature to me to say that areas like Temecula will bottom out in the 4th quarter this year when so many jobs up there could be at risk if the economy tanks.

[Anonymous]

The dates seem reasonable to me, but consider that they are based (I assume) mostly on what has already happened/is happening now with regard to interest rates, foreclosures and other market data that was used to come up with these guesstimates. What happens when we consider that we are likely entering a national recession that could bring with it large numbers of job losses this next year or two. Keep in mind that this is what caused the last housing collapse in the early 90s (I believe I am correct in saying this), and we have yet to see the impact significant job losses and a recession will have locally and in Riverside Cty. It seems premature to me to say that areas like Temecula will bottom out in the 4th quarter this year when so many jobs up there could be at risk if the economy tanks.

[Anonymous]

The dates seem reasonable to me, but consider that they are based (I assume) mostly on what has already happened/is happening now with regard to interest rates, foreclosures and other market data that was used to come up with these guesstimates. What happens when we consider that we are likely entering a national recession that could bring with it large numbers of job losses this next year or two. Keep in mind that this is what caused the last housing collapse in the early 90s (I believe I am correct in saying this), and we have yet to see the impact significant job losses and a recession will have locally and in Riverside Cty. It seems premature to me to say that areas like Temecula will bottom out in the 4th quarter this year when so many jobs up there could be at risk if the economy tanks.

[kewp]

I think Hillcrest/Mission Hills will be 2010+, and the other 3 may occur by the end of 2009. The more desirable areas hold up longer.

I hear that. They are still putting up condos around here (Hillcrest). They are going to have finish them, then do the bankruptcy/bank-repo thing before they find a bottom.

The problem with Hillcrest/Mission Hills is that there are lots of wealth Dr.’s who want to buy near the hospitals and are just priced out for the time being. They have a ton of cash and stable income and will snap up these properties once they become affordable to them.

[kewp]

I think Hillcrest/Mission Hills will be 2010+, and the other 3 may occur by the end of 2009. The more desirable areas hold up longer.

I hear that. They are still putting up condos around here (Hillcrest). They are going to have finish them, then do the bankruptcy/bank-repo thing before they find a bottom.

The problem with Hillcrest/Mission Hills is that there are lots of wealth Dr.’s who want to buy near the hospitals and are just priced out for the time being. They have a ton of cash and stable income and will snap up these properties once they become affordable to them.

[kewp]

I think Hillcrest/Mission Hills will be 2010+, and the other 3 may occur by the end of 2009. The more desirable areas hold up longer.

I hear that. They are still putting up condos around here (Hillcrest). They are going to have finish them, then do the bankruptcy/bank-repo thing before they find a bottom.

The problem with Hillcrest/Mission Hills is that there are lots of wealth Dr.’s who want to buy near the hospitals and are just priced out for the time being. They have a ton of cash and stable income and will snap up these properties once they become affordable to them.

[kewp]

I think Hillcrest/Mission Hills will be 2010+, and the other 3 may occur by the end of 2009. The more desirable areas hold up longer.

I hear that. They are still putting up condos around here (Hillcrest). They are going to have finish them, then do the bankruptcy/bank-repo thing before they find a bottom.

The problem with Hillcrest/Mission Hills is that there are lots of wealth Dr.’s who want to buy near the hospitals and are just priced out for the time being. They have a ton of cash and stable income and will snap up these properties once they become affordable to them.

[Author]

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