The “bottom” for various neighborhoods in SD

[gdcox]

Graham

There is bound to be some vertical movement because people downsize after families or move away on retirement and younger people or those with growing families take their place.

Vertical is probably most significant for new houses . Toll Brothers are on record as saying sub-prime is hitting them in the rich sector because of the chains which reach right down to the cheapest segments.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

” vertical movement ”

I would say there is a lot of vertical movement myself,

Most people I know are looking to move up on average of once every 5 years (promotions , better Jobs, the biz finally takes off etc…), but maybe it’s an L.A. thing.

In fact I would argue that there is quite a bit of pended up vertical movement because of the crazy home prices the last few years.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

” vertical movement ”

I would say there is a lot of vertical movement myself,

Most people I know are looking to move up on average of once every 5 years (promotions , better Jobs, the biz finally takes off etc…), but maybe it’s an L.A. thing.

In fact I would argue that there is quite a bit of pended up vertical movement because of the crazy home prices the last few years.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

” vertical movement ”

I would say there is a lot of vertical movement myself,

Most people I know are looking to move up on average of once every 5 years (promotions , better Jobs, the biz finally takes off etc…), but maybe it’s an L.A. thing.

In fact I would argue that there is quite a bit of pended up vertical movement because of the crazy home prices the last few years.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

” vertical movement ”

I would say there is a lot of vertical movement myself,

Most people I know are looking to move up on average of once every 5 years (promotions , better Jobs, the biz finally takes off etc…), but maybe it’s an L.A. thing.

In fact I would argue that there is quite a bit of pended up vertical movement because of the crazy home prices the last few years.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

” vertical movement ”

I would say there is a lot of vertical movement myself,

Most people I know are looking to move up on average of once every 5 years (promotions , better Jobs, the biz finally takes off etc…), but maybe it’s an L.A. thing.

In fact I would argue that there is quite a bit of pended up vertical movement because of the crazy home prices the last few years.

[sdrealtor]

While I dont completely agree with esmith there is alot of truth in what he says. Prior to the funny money credit era, a move-up was typically no more than $150,000 and usually closer to $100,000. The Int only, NINJA loans allowed people to take a couple steps up and we are seeing that unwind nowadays.

Moving up $100,000 generally represents an increase in your monthly housing costs of about $1,000. That in turn requires another $30,000 to $40,000 in annual income to be an easy move. The monster jumps in homes by the majority of move-up buyers are a thing of the past IMO.

I expect this to lead to more of the moving around in a community and less Oceanside/Vista to Encinitas/Carmel Valley jumps. Most people who need a little more room will have to be content finding it around the corner. If they desire to move to a more desireable area they will have to be happy with much less house in most cases.

[sdrealtor]

While I dont completely agree with esmith there is alot of truth in what he says. Prior to the funny money credit era, a move-up was typically no more than $150,000 and usually closer to $100,000. The Int only, NINJA loans allowed people to take a couple steps up and we are seeing that unwind nowadays.

Moving up $100,000 generally represents an increase in your monthly housing costs of about $1,000. That in turn requires another $30,000 to $40,000 in annual income to be an easy move. The monster jumps in homes by the majority of move-up buyers are a thing of the past IMO.

I expect this to lead to more of the moving around in a community and less Oceanside/Vista to Encinitas/Carmel Valley jumps. Most people who need a little more room will have to be content finding it around the corner. If they desire to move to a more desireable area they will have to be happy with much less house in most cases.

[sdrealtor]

While I dont completely agree with esmith there is alot of truth in what he says. Prior to the funny money credit era, a move-up was typically no more than $150,000 and usually closer to $100,000. The Int only, NINJA loans allowed people to take a couple steps up and we are seeing that unwind nowadays.

Moving up $100,000 generally represents an increase in your monthly housing costs of about $1,000. That in turn requires another $30,000 to $40,000 in annual income to be an easy move. The monster jumps in homes by the majority of move-up buyers are a thing of the past IMO.

I expect this to lead to more of the moving around in a community and less Oceanside/Vista to Encinitas/Carmel Valley jumps. Most people who need a little more room will have to be content finding it around the corner. If they desire to move to a more desireable area they will have to be happy with much less house in most cases.

[sdrealtor]

While I dont completely agree with esmith there is alot of truth in what he says. Prior to the funny money credit era, a move-up was typically no more than $150,000 and usually closer to $100,000. The Int only, NINJA loans allowed people to take a couple steps up and we are seeing that unwind nowadays.

Moving up $100,000 generally represents an increase in your monthly housing costs of about $1,000. That in turn requires another $30,000 to $40,000 in annual income to be an easy move. The monster jumps in homes by the majority of move-up buyers are a thing of the past IMO.

I expect this to lead to more of the moving around in a community and less Oceanside/Vista to Encinitas/Carmel Valley jumps. Most people who need a little more room will have to be content finding it around the corner. If they desire to move to a more desireable area they will have to be happy with much less house in most cases.

[sdrealtor]

While I dont completely agree with esmith there is alot of truth in what he says. Prior to the funny money credit era, a move-up was typically no more than $150,000 and usually closer to $100,000. The Int only, NINJA loans allowed people to take a couple steps up and we are seeing that unwind nowadays.

Moving up $100,000 generally represents an increase in your monthly housing costs of about $1,000. That in turn requires another $30,000 to $40,000 in annual income to be an easy move. The monster jumps in homes by the majority of move-up buyers are a thing of the past IMO.

I expect this to lead to more of the moving around in a community and less Oceanside/Vista to Encinitas/Carmel Valley jumps. Most people who need a little more room will have to be content finding it around the corner. If they desire to move to a more desireable area they will have to be happy with much less house in most cases.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

“Oddly enough I don’t know anyone on my block who works in construction or retail, most work for the Government or health care and several are retired-(their not going anywhere).”

Just a thought on the above statement. Healthcare and Insurance are probably very stable markets. When you say govt, if its state, fed or local employees, then sure – no problem but I would be very afraid of being a govt contractor right now. With the coming election, I would imagine a reduction in new contract spending. I would vacate any DoD sector consulting gigs and hunker down in a stable industry to brace for the coming impact.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

“Oddly enough I don’t know anyone on my block who works in construction or retail, most work for the Government or health care and several are retired-(their not going anywhere).”

Just a thought on the above statement. Healthcare and Insurance are probably very stable markets. When you say govt, if its state, fed or local employees, then sure – no problem but I would be very afraid of being a govt contractor right now. With the coming election, I would imagine a reduction in new contract spending. I would vacate any DoD sector consulting gigs and hunker down in a stable industry to brace for the coming impact.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

“Oddly enough I don’t know anyone on my block who works in construction or retail, most work for the Government or health care and several are retired-(their not going anywhere).”

Just a thought on the above statement. Healthcare and Insurance are probably very stable markets. When you say govt, if its state, fed or local employees, then sure – no problem but I would be very afraid of being a govt contractor right now. With the coming election, I would imagine a reduction in new contract spending. I would vacate any DoD sector consulting gigs and hunker down in a stable industry to brace for the coming impact.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

“Oddly enough I don’t know anyone on my block who works in construction or retail, most work for the Government or health care and several are retired-(their not going anywhere).”

Just a thought on the above statement. Healthcare and Insurance are probably very stable markets. When you say govt, if its state, fed or local employees, then sure – no problem but I would be very afraid of being a govt contractor right now. With the coming election, I would imagine a reduction in new contract spending. I would vacate any DoD sector consulting gigs and hunker down in a stable industry to brace for the coming impact.

[Author]

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