The boat turns slowly

[surveyor]

[quote=andymajumder]The real winners have been people who bought in the late 1990s or 2000-2002 span and were able to refinance to the low rates now.[/quote]

That would describe me, but unfortunately my mortgage broker has just informed me that fannie mae will not let me refi since I have more than four property loans.

/sob

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]

I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]

I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]

I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]

I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]

I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.

[UCGal]

[quote=SD Realtor]I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.[/quote]

When you say bode well – does it bode well for buyers or for sellers? Obviously sellers want a heated up market and bidding wars. Buyers want the opposite. The market is what it is… it’s the players that see things boding well or badly.

Since you buy (at auction) and sell… you see both sides of this -and I can’t say which perspective you’re saying is going to “bode well”.

I’m not trying to be argumentative – just trying to understand your sense of things.

Thanks.

[UCGal]

[quote=SD Realtor]I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.[/quote]

When you say bode well – does it bode well for buyers or for sellers? Obviously sellers want a heated up market and bidding wars. Buyers want the opposite. The market is what it is… it’s the players that see things boding well or badly.

Since you buy (at auction) and sell… you see both sides of this -and I can’t say which perspective you’re saying is going to “bode well”.

I’m not trying to be argumentative – just trying to understand your sense of things.

Thanks.

[UCGal]

[quote=SD Realtor]I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.[/quote]

When you say bode well – does it bode well for buyers or for sellers? Obviously sellers want a heated up market and bidding wars. Buyers want the opposite. The market is what it is… it’s the players that see things boding well or badly.

Since you buy (at auction) and sell… you see both sides of this -and I can’t say which perspective you’re saying is going to “bode well”.

I’m not trying to be argumentative – just trying to understand your sense of things.

Thanks.

[UCGal]

[quote=SD Realtor]I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.[/quote]

When you say bode well – does it bode well for buyers or for sellers? Obviously sellers want a heated up market and bidding wars. Buyers want the opposite. The market is what it is… it’s the players that see things boding well or badly.

Since you buy (at auction) and sell… you see both sides of this -and I can’t say which perspective you’re saying is going to “bode well”.

I’m not trying to be argumentative – just trying to understand your sense of things.

Thanks.

[UCGal]

[quote=SD Realtor]I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.[/quote]

When you say bode well – does it bode well for buyers or for sellers? Obviously sellers want a heated up market and bidding wars. Buyers want the opposite. The market is what it is… it’s the players that see things boding well or badly.

Since you buy (at auction) and sell… you see both sides of this -and I can’t say which perspective you’re saying is going to “bode well”.

I’m not trying to be argumentative – just trying to understand your sense of things.

Thanks.

[ocrenter]

[quote=briansd1]

The peak houses in the Fort Myers area seem to have attracted “wholesome” white families with kids who went bust with the economic crash. Kind of like Temecula Valley. But the bust has been more spectacular in South-West Florida because there are no large metropolitan areas to commute to for jobs.[/quote]

That’s what I thought about the place too. did not seem like a sustainable area given lack of jobs. I wonder what type of jobs the Hispanics have? fixing up unfinished homes? I guess when prices are low enough, folks will come?

[ocrenter]

[quote=briansd1]

The peak houses in the Fort Myers area seem to have attracted “wholesome” white families with kids who went bust with the economic crash. Kind of like Temecula Valley. But the bust has been more spectacular in South-West Florida because there are no large metropolitan areas to commute to for jobs.[/quote]

That’s what I thought about the place too. did not seem like a sustainable area given lack of jobs. I wonder what type of jobs the Hispanics have? fixing up unfinished homes? I guess when prices are low enough, folks will come?

[ocrenter]

[quote=briansd1]

The peak houses in the Fort Myers area seem to have attracted “wholesome” white families with kids who went bust with the economic crash. Kind of like Temecula Valley. But the bust has been more spectacular in South-West Florida because there are no large metropolitan areas to commute to for jobs.[/quote]

That’s what I thought about the place too. did not seem like a sustainable area given lack of jobs. I wonder what type of jobs the Hispanics have? fixing up unfinished homes? I guess when prices are low enough, folks will come?

[ocrenter]

[quote=briansd1]

The peak houses in the Fort Myers area seem to have attracted “wholesome” white families with kids who went bust with the economic crash. Kind of like Temecula Valley. But the bust has been more spectacular in South-West Florida because there are no large metropolitan areas to commute to for jobs.[/quote]

That’s what I thought about the place too. did not seem like a sustainable area given lack of jobs. I wonder what type of jobs the Hispanics have? fixing up unfinished homes? I guess when prices are low enough, folks will come?

[Author]

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