Home › Forums › Closed Forums › Buying and Selling RE › Tales of an RSF buyer (Part II)
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KIBU.
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AuthorPosts
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March 17, 2008 at 6:58 PM #12151
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March 17, 2008 at 9:48 PM #172017
SD Realtor
ParticipantTerrific post Raptor. It really is astounding how much money is out there on the sidelines. Question, have you been able to track the homes you did not get accepted on that did go into escrow just to see what they eventually did sell for?
Anyways, your example of patience has been one that many should take note of. One things ALWAYS rings true in real estate which is, there will always be another house on the market in the future.
SD Realtor
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March 17, 2008 at 10:36 PM #172072
KIBU
ParticipantRaptorduck, I read your 3 posts and absolutely like your approach. I think that process would give the most information to make the informed decision. You are so patient, I can’t imagine me looking at that many homes and still not hooked already. I am still early in the process and my offers are one zero less. Anyway, if I leave my email address here, could you share with me a sample letter of what one would write? (minus any personal info of course) I already learn from the points above but I will be happy to know the words/terms I would use in the letter. My email address is [email protected]. Thank you.
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March 18, 2008 at 6:39 AM #172182
raptorduck
ParticipantSD Realtor. None of the homes I wrote offers on that went into escrow, have closed escrow yet. But a few homes I looked early on at and considered strongly writing offers on, have sold and closed escrow. 3 I can think of are in RSF, including one we did write an offer on.
The first sold for 69% of its original listing price, 85% of its second listing price, and 88% of its final listing price. It was on the market over 1.5 yrs. I really liked this house and wanted to write an offer on it. I thought it was a bargain at that third listing price and would have offered more than it sold for quite honestly. It was a “fixer upper” and we were relatively early in our process, and my wife was having nothing of fixer uppers. She has come around some since then, but just some. That is almost one that got away.
The second sold for 61% of its original listing price, 78% of its second listing price, and 89% of its final listing price. It sat on the market for over a year. Kind of a project house. Too small for us, and hard to see where to add, but it was on a great property IMHO.
The third is a sore spot. It is the only home we allowed ourselves to get emotional over. We did go after that one and competeted with 5 other buyers and it sold for 88% of the original asking price, 95% of the second asking price, and just above the final asking price. To me, it was worth its original asking price, but I would never have paid that. It was turn key perfect though, in every way.
My view is that while discipline and paitience are a virtue in this market, you must find a balance. I won’t write an offer below 80% of asking and really the vast majority of mine are in the 85%-90% range. I don’t want to play games with sellers and want to start somewhere where logic can suggest a middle ground. So I wait for a few “real” price reductions before I get really interested and start from there. That way I won’t be forced to write a 60% or 70% of asking offer. I note that some sellers list high and immediately lower the price to appear like a price reduction that really is not. These are easy to spot if you have looked at a lot of listings.
I feel that if you find a house you really want, you should go for it. If I had an emotional attachment to any of the homes I competed for, I would not have let a few % points in price difference stand in my way. But I did not. I really liked them, but my other options did not compel me to bend farther. You don’t want to loose that amazing house over a small gap from your rule, but then again you must conclude it really was amazing. Only that one example above fit that bill for me, but alas, I could not compete against those other bidders. To be honest, in retrospect, I wish I had been a little bit stronger with my coutners on that one, but that was my first offer last year and I had less market info. I think I still would have lost to a higher bidder though.
As for patience, my wife and agent don’t have nearly the patience I do and I am starting to wear on them, particularly my agent. I feel for her, honestly. Imagine seeing a six figure commission check so close you can taste it, only to see it wait for another birth.
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March 18, 2008 at 6:39 AM #172515
raptorduck
ParticipantSD Realtor. None of the homes I wrote offers on that went into escrow, have closed escrow yet. But a few homes I looked early on at and considered strongly writing offers on, have sold and closed escrow. 3 I can think of are in RSF, including one we did write an offer on.
The first sold for 69% of its original listing price, 85% of its second listing price, and 88% of its final listing price. It was on the market over 1.5 yrs. I really liked this house and wanted to write an offer on it. I thought it was a bargain at that third listing price and would have offered more than it sold for quite honestly. It was a “fixer upper” and we were relatively early in our process, and my wife was having nothing of fixer uppers. She has come around some since then, but just some. That is almost one that got away.
The second sold for 61% of its original listing price, 78% of its second listing price, and 89% of its final listing price. It sat on the market for over a year. Kind of a project house. Too small for us, and hard to see where to add, but it was on a great property IMHO.
The third is a sore spot. It is the only home we allowed ourselves to get emotional over. We did go after that one and competeted with 5 other buyers and it sold for 88% of the original asking price, 95% of the second asking price, and just above the final asking price. To me, it was worth its original asking price, but I would never have paid that. It was turn key perfect though, in every way.
My view is that while discipline and paitience are a virtue in this market, you must find a balance. I won’t write an offer below 80% of asking and really the vast majority of mine are in the 85%-90% range. I don’t want to play games with sellers and want to start somewhere where logic can suggest a middle ground. So I wait for a few “real” price reductions before I get really interested and start from there. That way I won’t be forced to write a 60% or 70% of asking offer. I note that some sellers list high and immediately lower the price to appear like a price reduction that really is not. These are easy to spot if you have looked at a lot of listings.
I feel that if you find a house you really want, you should go for it. If I had an emotional attachment to any of the homes I competed for, I would not have let a few % points in price difference stand in my way. But I did not. I really liked them, but my other options did not compel me to bend farther. You don’t want to loose that amazing house over a small gap from your rule, but then again you must conclude it really was amazing. Only that one example above fit that bill for me, but alas, I could not compete against those other bidders. To be honest, in retrospect, I wish I had been a little bit stronger with my coutners on that one, but that was my first offer last year and I had less market info. I think I still would have lost to a higher bidder though.
As for patience, my wife and agent don’t have nearly the patience I do and I am starting to wear on them, particularly my agent. I feel for her, honestly. Imagine seeing a six figure commission check so close you can taste it, only to see it wait for another birth.
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March 18, 2008 at 6:39 AM #172520
raptorduck
ParticipantSD Realtor. None of the homes I wrote offers on that went into escrow, have closed escrow yet. But a few homes I looked early on at and considered strongly writing offers on, have sold and closed escrow. 3 I can think of are in RSF, including one we did write an offer on.
The first sold for 69% of its original listing price, 85% of its second listing price, and 88% of its final listing price. It was on the market over 1.5 yrs. I really liked this house and wanted to write an offer on it. I thought it was a bargain at that third listing price and would have offered more than it sold for quite honestly. It was a “fixer upper” and we were relatively early in our process, and my wife was having nothing of fixer uppers. She has come around some since then, but just some. That is almost one that got away.
The second sold for 61% of its original listing price, 78% of its second listing price, and 89% of its final listing price. It sat on the market for over a year. Kind of a project house. Too small for us, and hard to see where to add, but it was on a great property IMHO.
The third is a sore spot. It is the only home we allowed ourselves to get emotional over. We did go after that one and competeted with 5 other buyers and it sold for 88% of the original asking price, 95% of the second asking price, and just above the final asking price. To me, it was worth its original asking price, but I would never have paid that. It was turn key perfect though, in every way.
My view is that while discipline and paitience are a virtue in this market, you must find a balance. I won’t write an offer below 80% of asking and really the vast majority of mine are in the 85%-90% range. I don’t want to play games with sellers and want to start somewhere where logic can suggest a middle ground. So I wait for a few “real” price reductions before I get really interested and start from there. That way I won’t be forced to write a 60% or 70% of asking offer. I note that some sellers list high and immediately lower the price to appear like a price reduction that really is not. These are easy to spot if you have looked at a lot of listings.
I feel that if you find a house you really want, you should go for it. If I had an emotional attachment to any of the homes I competed for, I would not have let a few % points in price difference stand in my way. But I did not. I really liked them, but my other options did not compel me to bend farther. You don’t want to loose that amazing house over a small gap from your rule, but then again you must conclude it really was amazing. Only that one example above fit that bill for me, but alas, I could not compete against those other bidders. To be honest, in retrospect, I wish I had been a little bit stronger with my coutners on that one, but that was my first offer last year and I had less market info. I think I still would have lost to a higher bidder though.
As for patience, my wife and agent don’t have nearly the patience I do and I am starting to wear on them, particularly my agent. I feel for her, honestly. Imagine seeing a six figure commission check so close you can taste it, only to see it wait for another birth.
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March 18, 2008 at 6:39 AM #172542
raptorduck
ParticipantSD Realtor. None of the homes I wrote offers on that went into escrow, have closed escrow yet. But a few homes I looked early on at and considered strongly writing offers on, have sold and closed escrow. 3 I can think of are in RSF, including one we did write an offer on.
The first sold for 69% of its original listing price, 85% of its second listing price, and 88% of its final listing price. It was on the market over 1.5 yrs. I really liked this house and wanted to write an offer on it. I thought it was a bargain at that third listing price and would have offered more than it sold for quite honestly. It was a “fixer upper” and we were relatively early in our process, and my wife was having nothing of fixer uppers. She has come around some since then, but just some. That is almost one that got away.
The second sold for 61% of its original listing price, 78% of its second listing price, and 89% of its final listing price. It sat on the market for over a year. Kind of a project house. Too small for us, and hard to see where to add, but it was on a great property IMHO.
The third is a sore spot. It is the only home we allowed ourselves to get emotional over. We did go after that one and competeted with 5 other buyers and it sold for 88% of the original asking price, 95% of the second asking price, and just above the final asking price. To me, it was worth its original asking price, but I would never have paid that. It was turn key perfect though, in every way.
My view is that while discipline and paitience are a virtue in this market, you must find a balance. I won’t write an offer below 80% of asking and really the vast majority of mine are in the 85%-90% range. I don’t want to play games with sellers and want to start somewhere where logic can suggest a middle ground. So I wait for a few “real” price reductions before I get really interested and start from there. That way I won’t be forced to write a 60% or 70% of asking offer. I note that some sellers list high and immediately lower the price to appear like a price reduction that really is not. These are easy to spot if you have looked at a lot of listings.
I feel that if you find a house you really want, you should go for it. If I had an emotional attachment to any of the homes I competed for, I would not have let a few % points in price difference stand in my way. But I did not. I really liked them, but my other options did not compel me to bend farther. You don’t want to loose that amazing house over a small gap from your rule, but then again you must conclude it really was amazing. Only that one example above fit that bill for me, but alas, I could not compete against those other bidders. To be honest, in retrospect, I wish I had been a little bit stronger with my coutners on that one, but that was my first offer last year and I had less market info. I think I still would have lost to a higher bidder though.
As for patience, my wife and agent don’t have nearly the patience I do and I am starting to wear on them, particularly my agent. I feel for her, honestly. Imagine seeing a six figure commission check so close you can taste it, only to see it wait for another birth.
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March 18, 2008 at 6:39 AM #172622
raptorduck
ParticipantSD Realtor. None of the homes I wrote offers on that went into escrow, have closed escrow yet. But a few homes I looked early on at and considered strongly writing offers on, have sold and closed escrow. 3 I can think of are in RSF, including one we did write an offer on.
The first sold for 69% of its original listing price, 85% of its second listing price, and 88% of its final listing price. It was on the market over 1.5 yrs. I really liked this house and wanted to write an offer on it. I thought it was a bargain at that third listing price and would have offered more than it sold for quite honestly. It was a “fixer upper” and we were relatively early in our process, and my wife was having nothing of fixer uppers. She has come around some since then, but just some. That is almost one that got away.
The second sold for 61% of its original listing price, 78% of its second listing price, and 89% of its final listing price. It sat on the market for over a year. Kind of a project house. Too small for us, and hard to see where to add, but it was on a great property IMHO.
The third is a sore spot. It is the only home we allowed ourselves to get emotional over. We did go after that one and competeted with 5 other buyers and it sold for 88% of the original asking price, 95% of the second asking price, and just above the final asking price. To me, it was worth its original asking price, but I would never have paid that. It was turn key perfect though, in every way.
My view is that while discipline and paitience are a virtue in this market, you must find a balance. I won’t write an offer below 80% of asking and really the vast majority of mine are in the 85%-90% range. I don’t want to play games with sellers and want to start somewhere where logic can suggest a middle ground. So I wait for a few “real” price reductions before I get really interested and start from there. That way I won’t be forced to write a 60% or 70% of asking offer. I note that some sellers list high and immediately lower the price to appear like a price reduction that really is not. These are easy to spot if you have looked at a lot of listings.
I feel that if you find a house you really want, you should go for it. If I had an emotional attachment to any of the homes I competed for, I would not have let a few % points in price difference stand in my way. But I did not. I really liked them, but my other options did not compel me to bend farther. You don’t want to loose that amazing house over a small gap from your rule, but then again you must conclude it really was amazing. Only that one example above fit that bill for me, but alas, I could not compete against those other bidders. To be honest, in retrospect, I wish I had been a little bit stronger with my coutners on that one, but that was my first offer last year and I had less market info. I think I still would have lost to a higher bidder though.
As for patience, my wife and agent don’t have nearly the patience I do and I am starting to wear on them, particularly my agent. I feel for her, honestly. Imagine seeing a six figure commission check so close you can taste it, only to see it wait for another birth.
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March 18, 2008 at 6:47 AM #172187
raptorduck
ParticipantKIBU. I think all my letters are in PDF b/c my agent writes them and I comment. There are two camps for me. The first is for that rare house you really love. In that case you make a case for you being the buyer that seller should choose to live in their home that they have loved. This works best for sellers who are still living in their homes. The second is for that house that you think is overpriced. In that case you make a logical argument as to why it is better for the seller to sell to you now at your price, rather than hold out for a higher one.
I am being very general. Each letter we write is taiolored to the particular property, seller, neighborhood, and pricing. Key is to be honest. It is obvious you like the house or you would not be making an offer. Or it should be obvious anyway. But do you love it? If you do say so. If you don’t say so. I love many of the homes I wrote offers on, and really like others. One, the one example above, I lusted for, sheer violent lust. Shame on me. Lust kills self discipline and perspective. I don’t know how I stuck to my rules on that one, but somehow I did. It sold for way above my max anyway, so I would not have bent a rule, I would have shattered one, to get it.
Unless the house is truly unique, I think the logic type letter works best. Again, if the seller is still in the house, you have to consider a more personal approach in my view.
I always tell myself that the sellers are people who can be neighbors and friends. They are not the enemy. Some are ignorant and stubborn, but then again, I can be too, and they will learn on their own terms. I am not rooting for the market to continue falling indefinately. That will hurt everybody in the long run, renters and owners. The economy is a soup and codependent and not a partitioned and self sustaining. As I have stated, my market bottem expectation is around this time next year. There are ways to get a good deal while not contributing to the falling market, very creative ways. But while the market is falling, yes, I have to be cautions and agressive as a rational buyer.
Sellers can be irrational, but they are entitled to be. It is their house. One of my favorites in RSF lowerd her price once, in 2007, to 85% of her original asking in 2006. Unfortunately her comps continued falling to 76% of her second asking price. One neighbors home of about the same size and quality had listed for her same exact listing price. 6 months later it sold for 75% of that. Yet she stuck to her second asking. Recently, she “increased” her asking price because she was fed up with low ball offers and figures if she starts higher, so will they. At market price, I would buy her house, but not at her irrational price. She still lives in it and apparently can afford to be irrational. That is her right. She may not “have” to sell.
Anyway, I note that my rules are just that, my rules. They may not work for anybody but me. I have no unique insights here. They walk well worn paths. Just a unique perspective. I have no secrets. I am just trying to find a home to live in at a time when taking the plunge can be unsettling. In emotional times, I am trying to be unemotional and logical. I may still buy in the next month or so. I have gotten very very close these past few weeks. If I do, my new home will no doubt loose value over the next year and perhaps few years and if I do it according to my rules, I should not worry to much about it.
Soon I will be a seller. Simple rules there too. Fix every little thing wrong with it first. Get inspections done and a disclosure package before I list to show to buyers early. Prepare it for sale properly. Market it agressively. List it for less $/sf than any other home in the area. Drop the price after a short period if no interest. Draw a bottom line for sales price, and take any offer from a strong buyer above that line. Greed and shortsided hopes for a higher offer are the mind killers in this market for sellers. Work the probabilities, not the possibilities. Do not keep it on the market more than 150 days max. Rent it after that. I can cover my mortgage and a little more than that, but not all taxes and insurance, so it will run a bit cash negative.
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March 18, 2008 at 9:00 AM #172297
EconProf
ParticipantBobS
Great posts Raptor, and we have all learned from your methodical approach. Your list of “lessons learned” should be framed and hung on the refrigerator door of every house hunter.
So why hasn’t it got you your dream home yet? You are doing all the right things. I can only ascribe it to bad luck. You are fishing in the deep waters of the least-impacted segment of the housing bubble. The sellers there have exhibited a remarkable resistance to serious price cutting. With luck, perhaps some Bear Stearns execs own houses in RSF. -
March 18, 2008 at 11:12 AM #172357
raptorduck
ParticipantBobS.
If you ask my wife, I am too stubborn to bend my rules.
If you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
If you ask me, I am simply confident enough that I will eventually find a great home within my rules, that I am not stressing over near misses. I have gotten close enough recently to feed that confidence more nourishment.
I would not call it bad luck, just lack of opportunistic convergence. Now interests rates skyrocketing when I was trying to work one of those deals, now that was bad luck.
p.s. Santaluz is still a strong possiblity. If not to buy, then to rent until I buy there or in RSF.
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March 18, 2008 at 11:49 AM #172382
Anonymous
GuestHi Raptor,
Just a little personal question: how is your wife liking the offering process?
When I bought my house in the early winter after 8 months of search and almost two years of renting, my wife was on the verge of killing me. She really didn’t like my saying “it only has to work out once” after each lowball offer… I think we made north of 30 offers.
Arguably, I bought too early but the peace is back, we can afford our house and we love it. That’s priceless (only singles will argue about this).
Rene
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March 18, 2008 at 2:50 PM #172512
raptorduck
ParticipantRene. She is doing pretty good. She had less patience last year than she does now. It is as if she is now used to the process. She is even ok with renting now. A few months ago I could have rented, as a single guy.
What got her to consider renting was the simple fact that I was going to stay here another year and keep looking. Now, if we don’t find something after a few more months, we will move there anyway and rent. My employer wants me there sooner rather than later anyway so it is working out for her. Suddenly, she is patient with the process more, cuz she is moving to SD this year no matter what.
Alas, that rental idea has a limit, one year. After that I take my life into my own hands.
BTW, when I bought my current house, near market peak mind you, I tourned 60+ homes and wrote 17 offers. I got this one by paying 15% “above” asking against 12 other bidders, all cash, no contingencies, and 3 months free rent back. Oh the ignorance of youth. It was like winning an eBay auction only to find that you paid more than you could have at the local Target.
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March 18, 2008 at 2:50 PM #172844
raptorduck
ParticipantRene. She is doing pretty good. She had less patience last year than she does now. It is as if she is now used to the process. She is even ok with renting now. A few months ago I could have rented, as a single guy.
What got her to consider renting was the simple fact that I was going to stay here another year and keep looking. Now, if we don’t find something after a few more months, we will move there anyway and rent. My employer wants me there sooner rather than later anyway so it is working out for her. Suddenly, she is patient with the process more, cuz she is moving to SD this year no matter what.
Alas, that rental idea has a limit, one year. After that I take my life into my own hands.
BTW, when I bought my current house, near market peak mind you, I tourned 60+ homes and wrote 17 offers. I got this one by paying 15% “above” asking against 12 other bidders, all cash, no contingencies, and 3 months free rent back. Oh the ignorance of youth. It was like winning an eBay auction only to find that you paid more than you could have at the local Target.
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March 18, 2008 at 2:50 PM #172852
raptorduck
ParticipantRene. She is doing pretty good. She had less patience last year than she does now. It is as if she is now used to the process. She is even ok with renting now. A few months ago I could have rented, as a single guy.
What got her to consider renting was the simple fact that I was going to stay here another year and keep looking. Now, if we don’t find something after a few more months, we will move there anyway and rent. My employer wants me there sooner rather than later anyway so it is working out for her. Suddenly, she is patient with the process more, cuz she is moving to SD this year no matter what.
Alas, that rental idea has a limit, one year. After that I take my life into my own hands.
BTW, when I bought my current house, near market peak mind you, I tourned 60+ homes and wrote 17 offers. I got this one by paying 15% “above” asking against 12 other bidders, all cash, no contingencies, and 3 months free rent back. Oh the ignorance of youth. It was like winning an eBay auction only to find that you paid more than you could have at the local Target.
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March 18, 2008 at 2:50 PM #172872
raptorduck
ParticipantRene. She is doing pretty good. She had less patience last year than she does now. It is as if she is now used to the process. She is even ok with renting now. A few months ago I could have rented, as a single guy.
What got her to consider renting was the simple fact that I was going to stay here another year and keep looking. Now, if we don’t find something after a few more months, we will move there anyway and rent. My employer wants me there sooner rather than later anyway so it is working out for her. Suddenly, she is patient with the process more, cuz she is moving to SD this year no matter what.
Alas, that rental idea has a limit, one year. After that I take my life into my own hands.
BTW, when I bought my current house, near market peak mind you, I tourned 60+ homes and wrote 17 offers. I got this one by paying 15% “above” asking against 12 other bidders, all cash, no contingencies, and 3 months free rent back. Oh the ignorance of youth. It was like winning an eBay auction only to find that you paid more than you could have at the local Target.
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March 18, 2008 at 2:50 PM #172951
raptorduck
ParticipantRene. She is doing pretty good. She had less patience last year than she does now. It is as if she is now used to the process. She is even ok with renting now. A few months ago I could have rented, as a single guy.
What got her to consider renting was the simple fact that I was going to stay here another year and keep looking. Now, if we don’t find something after a few more months, we will move there anyway and rent. My employer wants me there sooner rather than later anyway so it is working out for her. Suddenly, she is patient with the process more, cuz she is moving to SD this year no matter what.
Alas, that rental idea has a limit, one year. After that I take my life into my own hands.
BTW, when I bought my current house, near market peak mind you, I tourned 60+ homes and wrote 17 offers. I got this one by paying 15% “above” asking against 12 other bidders, all cash, no contingencies, and 3 months free rent back. Oh the ignorance of youth. It was like winning an eBay auction only to find that you paid more than you could have at the local Target.
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March 18, 2008 at 2:53 PM #172517
raptorduck
ParticipantUcodegen. Well, I always crunch the numbers and then set a first offer price and a max offer price. I don’t ever go past the max offer price. The magic is if the gap falls within that range, I will find a house I and close the deal! It has not happened yet.
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March 18, 2008 at 4:40 PM #172602
barnaby33
Participantraptorduck, either you have serious OCD, or are one hell of an exhibitionist. Thats my way of saying thanks for the time to write the posts.
Josh
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March 18, 2008 at 5:22 PM #172621
raptorduck
ParticipantOCD yes, exhibitionist no. Diarrhea of the keyboard, often and all the time.
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March 18, 2008 at 9:14 PM #172700
KIBU
ParticipantThank you Raptorduck for your inputs. The concepts you expressed above are very helpful for me. I will definitely use these concepts on my house search. We will still be waiting though for the more affordability in price. At the moment I think the market is only starting to move down. IMO, the psychology of the sellers are still mixed, the psychology of the housing market is still distracted with frequent Ben and Bush’s tool box until, I guess, they run out of tools. Waiting has its risks, IMHO, such as risk of high inflation or the small chance of monetary collapse. I suspect that this government wants intentional and controlled moderate-high inflation to decrease the overall debt burden. Monetary inflation may meet housing deflation at some point and I am not sure 100% that at that point it will be concluded that I made a correct decision to wait since 2003 compared to my friends. Still, I think my chance to be right for continue waiting maybe at around 70%. Anyway, reading all your long posts, I can’t help but wanted to remind you to not to give out too much private info in the general hacking world.
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March 18, 2008 at 9:14 PM #173038
KIBU
ParticipantThank you Raptorduck for your inputs. The concepts you expressed above are very helpful for me. I will definitely use these concepts on my house search. We will still be waiting though for the more affordability in price. At the moment I think the market is only starting to move down. IMO, the psychology of the sellers are still mixed, the psychology of the housing market is still distracted with frequent Ben and Bush’s tool box until, I guess, they run out of tools. Waiting has its risks, IMHO, such as risk of high inflation or the small chance of monetary collapse. I suspect that this government wants intentional and controlled moderate-high inflation to decrease the overall debt burden. Monetary inflation may meet housing deflation at some point and I am not sure 100% that at that point it will be concluded that I made a correct decision to wait since 2003 compared to my friends. Still, I think my chance to be right for continue waiting maybe at around 70%. Anyway, reading all your long posts, I can’t help but wanted to remind you to not to give out too much private info in the general hacking world.
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March 18, 2008 at 9:14 PM #173040
KIBU
ParticipantThank you Raptorduck for your inputs. The concepts you expressed above are very helpful for me. I will definitely use these concepts on my house search. We will still be waiting though for the more affordability in price. At the moment I think the market is only starting to move down. IMO, the psychology of the sellers are still mixed, the psychology of the housing market is still distracted with frequent Ben and Bush’s tool box until, I guess, they run out of tools. Waiting has its risks, IMHO, such as risk of high inflation or the small chance of monetary collapse. I suspect that this government wants intentional and controlled moderate-high inflation to decrease the overall debt burden. Monetary inflation may meet housing deflation at some point and I am not sure 100% that at that point it will be concluded that I made a correct decision to wait since 2003 compared to my friends. Still, I think my chance to be right for continue waiting maybe at around 70%. Anyway, reading all your long posts, I can’t help but wanted to remind you to not to give out too much private info in the general hacking world.
-
March 18, 2008 at 9:14 PM #173063
KIBU
ParticipantThank you Raptorduck for your inputs. The concepts you expressed above are very helpful for me. I will definitely use these concepts on my house search. We will still be waiting though for the more affordability in price. At the moment I think the market is only starting to move down. IMO, the psychology of the sellers are still mixed, the psychology of the housing market is still distracted with frequent Ben and Bush’s tool box until, I guess, they run out of tools. Waiting has its risks, IMHO, such as risk of high inflation or the small chance of monetary collapse. I suspect that this government wants intentional and controlled moderate-high inflation to decrease the overall debt burden. Monetary inflation may meet housing deflation at some point and I am not sure 100% that at that point it will be concluded that I made a correct decision to wait since 2003 compared to my friends. Still, I think my chance to be right for continue waiting maybe at around 70%. Anyway, reading all your long posts, I can’t help but wanted to remind you to not to give out too much private info in the general hacking world.
-
March 18, 2008 at 9:14 PM #173143
KIBU
ParticipantThank you Raptorduck for your inputs. The concepts you expressed above are very helpful for me. I will definitely use these concepts on my house search. We will still be waiting though for the more affordability in price. At the moment I think the market is only starting to move down. IMO, the psychology of the sellers are still mixed, the psychology of the housing market is still distracted with frequent Ben and Bush’s tool box until, I guess, they run out of tools. Waiting has its risks, IMHO, such as risk of high inflation or the small chance of monetary collapse. I suspect that this government wants intentional and controlled moderate-high inflation to decrease the overall debt burden. Monetary inflation may meet housing deflation at some point and I am not sure 100% that at that point it will be concluded that I made a correct decision to wait since 2003 compared to my friends. Still, I think my chance to be right for continue waiting maybe at around 70%. Anyway, reading all your long posts, I can’t help but wanted to remind you to not to give out too much private info in the general hacking world.
-
March 18, 2008 at 5:22 PM #172954
raptorduck
ParticipantOCD yes, exhibitionist no. Diarrhea of the keyboard, often and all the time.
-
March 18, 2008 at 5:22 PM #172961
raptorduck
ParticipantOCD yes, exhibitionist no. Diarrhea of the keyboard, often and all the time.
-
March 18, 2008 at 5:22 PM #172979
raptorduck
ParticipantOCD yes, exhibitionist no. Diarrhea of the keyboard, often and all the time.
-
March 18, 2008 at 5:22 PM #173062
raptorduck
ParticipantOCD yes, exhibitionist no. Diarrhea of the keyboard, often and all the time.
-
March 18, 2008 at 4:40 PM #172936
barnaby33
Participantraptorduck, either you have serious OCD, or are one hell of an exhibitionist. Thats my way of saying thanks for the time to write the posts.
Josh
-
March 18, 2008 at 4:40 PM #172939
barnaby33
Participantraptorduck, either you have serious OCD, or are one hell of an exhibitionist. Thats my way of saying thanks for the time to write the posts.
Josh
-
March 18, 2008 at 4:40 PM #172959
barnaby33
Participantraptorduck, either you have serious OCD, or are one hell of an exhibitionist. Thats my way of saying thanks for the time to write the posts.
Josh
-
March 18, 2008 at 4:40 PM #173043
barnaby33
Participantraptorduck, either you have serious OCD, or are one hell of an exhibitionist. Thats my way of saying thanks for the time to write the posts.
Josh
-
March 18, 2008 at 2:53 PM #172850
raptorduck
ParticipantUcodegen. Well, I always crunch the numbers and then set a first offer price and a max offer price. I don’t ever go past the max offer price. The magic is if the gap falls within that range, I will find a house I and close the deal! It has not happened yet.
-
March 18, 2008 at 2:53 PM #172857
raptorduck
ParticipantUcodegen. Well, I always crunch the numbers and then set a first offer price and a max offer price. I don’t ever go past the max offer price. The magic is if the gap falls within that range, I will find a house I and close the deal! It has not happened yet.
-
March 18, 2008 at 2:53 PM #172877
raptorduck
ParticipantUcodegen. Well, I always crunch the numbers and then set a first offer price and a max offer price. I don’t ever go past the max offer price. The magic is if the gap falls within that range, I will find a house I and close the deal! It has not happened yet.
-
March 18, 2008 at 2:53 PM #172957
raptorduck
ParticipantUcodegen. Well, I always crunch the numbers and then set a first offer price and a max offer price. I don’t ever go past the max offer price. The magic is if the gap falls within that range, I will find a house I and close the deal! It has not happened yet.
-
March 18, 2008 at 11:49 AM #172714
Anonymous
GuestHi Raptor,
Just a little personal question: how is your wife liking the offering process?
When I bought my house in the early winter after 8 months of search and almost two years of renting, my wife was on the verge of killing me. She really didn’t like my saying “it only has to work out once” after each lowball offer… I think we made north of 30 offers.
Arguably, I bought too early but the peace is back, we can afford our house and we love it. That’s priceless (only singles will argue about this).
Rene
-
March 18, 2008 at 11:49 AM #172719
Anonymous
GuestHi Raptor,
Just a little personal question: how is your wife liking the offering process?
When I bought my house in the early winter after 8 months of search and almost two years of renting, my wife was on the verge of killing me. She really didn’t like my saying “it only has to work out once” after each lowball offer… I think we made north of 30 offers.
Arguably, I bought too early but the peace is back, we can afford our house and we love it. That’s priceless (only singles will argue about this).
Rene
-
March 18, 2008 at 11:49 AM #172740
Anonymous
GuestHi Raptor,
Just a little personal question: how is your wife liking the offering process?
When I bought my house in the early winter after 8 months of search and almost two years of renting, my wife was on the verge of killing me. She really didn’t like my saying “it only has to work out once” after each lowball offer… I think we made north of 30 offers.
Arguably, I bought too early but the peace is back, we can afford our house and we love it. That’s priceless (only singles will argue about this).
Rene
-
March 18, 2008 at 11:49 AM #172819
Anonymous
GuestHi Raptor,
Just a little personal question: how is your wife liking the offering process?
When I bought my house in the early winter after 8 months of search and almost two years of renting, my wife was on the verge of killing me. She really didn’t like my saying “it only has to work out once” after each lowball offer… I think we made north of 30 offers.
Arguably, I bought too early but the peace is back, we can afford our house and we love it. That’s priceless (only singles will argue about this).
Rene
-
March 18, 2008 at 1:45 PM #172487
ucodegen
ParticipantIf you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
The thing about small gaps.. is that they can add up when they occur in succession. Soon you’ll be talking about a large gap from where you were originally. If you ever decide to bridge a ‘small’ gap, first write down what the original position was before you bridge it. Helps one keep an eye on the size of the real gap. Also helps counter the request for you to bridge that “small” gap once more.
-
March 18, 2008 at 1:45 PM #172821
ucodegen
ParticipantIf you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
The thing about small gaps.. is that they can add up when they occur in succession. Soon you’ll be talking about a large gap from where you were originally. If you ever decide to bridge a ‘small’ gap, first write down what the original position was before you bridge it. Helps one keep an eye on the size of the real gap. Also helps counter the request for you to bridge that “small” gap once more.
-
March 18, 2008 at 1:45 PM #172827
ucodegen
ParticipantIf you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
The thing about small gaps.. is that they can add up when they occur in succession. Soon you’ll be talking about a large gap from where you were originally. If you ever decide to bridge a ‘small’ gap, first write down what the original position was before you bridge it. Helps one keep an eye on the size of the real gap. Also helps counter the request for you to bridge that “small” gap once more.
-
March 18, 2008 at 1:45 PM #172845
ucodegen
ParticipantIf you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
The thing about small gaps.. is that they can add up when they occur in succession. Soon you’ll be talking about a large gap from where you were originally. If you ever decide to bridge a ‘small’ gap, first write down what the original position was before you bridge it. Helps one keep an eye on the size of the real gap. Also helps counter the request for you to bridge that “small” gap once more.
-
March 18, 2008 at 1:45 PM #172927
ucodegen
ParticipantIf you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
The thing about small gaps.. is that they can add up when they occur in succession. Soon you’ll be talking about a large gap from where you were originally. If you ever decide to bridge a ‘small’ gap, first write down what the original position was before you bridge it. Helps one keep an eye on the size of the real gap. Also helps counter the request for you to bridge that “small” gap once more.
-
March 18, 2008 at 11:12 AM #172692
raptorduck
ParticipantBobS.
If you ask my wife, I am too stubborn to bend my rules.
If you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
If you ask me, I am simply confident enough that I will eventually find a great home within my rules, that I am not stressing over near misses. I have gotten close enough recently to feed that confidence more nourishment.
I would not call it bad luck, just lack of opportunistic convergence. Now interests rates skyrocketing when I was trying to work one of those deals, now that was bad luck.
p.s. Santaluz is still a strong possiblity. If not to buy, then to rent until I buy there or in RSF.
-
March 18, 2008 at 11:12 AM #172693
raptorduck
ParticipantBobS.
If you ask my wife, I am too stubborn to bend my rules.
If you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
If you ask me, I am simply confident enough that I will eventually find a great home within my rules, that I am not stressing over near misses. I have gotten close enough recently to feed that confidence more nourishment.
I would not call it bad luck, just lack of opportunistic convergence. Now interests rates skyrocketing when I was trying to work one of those deals, now that was bad luck.
p.s. Santaluz is still a strong possiblity. If not to buy, then to rent until I buy there or in RSF.
-
March 18, 2008 at 11:12 AM #172716
raptorduck
ParticipantBobS.
If you ask my wife, I am too stubborn to bend my rules.
If you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
If you ask me, I am simply confident enough that I will eventually find a great home within my rules, that I am not stressing over near misses. I have gotten close enough recently to feed that confidence more nourishment.
I would not call it bad luck, just lack of opportunistic convergence. Now interests rates skyrocketing when I was trying to work one of those deals, now that was bad luck.
p.s. Santaluz is still a strong possiblity. If not to buy, then to rent until I buy there or in RSF.
-
March 18, 2008 at 11:12 AM #172795
raptorduck
ParticipantBobS.
If you ask my wife, I am too stubborn to bend my rules.
If you ask my agent or the listing agent, I am not being flexible enough to bridge a “small” gap to a deal.
If you ask me, I am simply confident enough that I will eventually find a great home within my rules, that I am not stressing over near misses. I have gotten close enough recently to feed that confidence more nourishment.
I would not call it bad luck, just lack of opportunistic convergence. Now interests rates skyrocketing when I was trying to work one of those deals, now that was bad luck.
p.s. Santaluz is still a strong possiblity. If not to buy, then to rent until I buy there or in RSF.
-
March 18, 2008 at 9:00 AM #172628
EconProf
ParticipantBobS
Great posts Raptor, and we have all learned from your methodical approach. Your list of “lessons learned” should be framed and hung on the refrigerator door of every house hunter.
So why hasn’t it got you your dream home yet? You are doing all the right things. I can only ascribe it to bad luck. You are fishing in the deep waters of the least-impacted segment of the housing bubble. The sellers there have exhibited a remarkable resistance to serious price cutting. With luck, perhaps some Bear Stearns execs own houses in RSF. -
March 18, 2008 at 9:00 AM #172634
EconProf
ParticipantBobS
Great posts Raptor, and we have all learned from your methodical approach. Your list of “lessons learned” should be framed and hung on the refrigerator door of every house hunter.
So why hasn’t it got you your dream home yet? You are doing all the right things. I can only ascribe it to bad luck. You are fishing in the deep waters of the least-impacted segment of the housing bubble. The sellers there have exhibited a remarkable resistance to serious price cutting. With luck, perhaps some Bear Stearns execs own houses in RSF. -
March 18, 2008 at 9:00 AM #172656
EconProf
ParticipantBobS
Great posts Raptor, and we have all learned from your methodical approach. Your list of “lessons learned” should be framed and hung on the refrigerator door of every house hunter.
So why hasn’t it got you your dream home yet? You are doing all the right things. I can only ascribe it to bad luck. You are fishing in the deep waters of the least-impacted segment of the housing bubble. The sellers there have exhibited a remarkable resistance to serious price cutting. With luck, perhaps some Bear Stearns execs own houses in RSF. -
March 18, 2008 at 9:00 AM #172736
EconProf
ParticipantBobS
Great posts Raptor, and we have all learned from your methodical approach. Your list of “lessons learned” should be framed and hung on the refrigerator door of every house hunter.
So why hasn’t it got you your dream home yet? You are doing all the right things. I can only ascribe it to bad luck. You are fishing in the deep waters of the least-impacted segment of the housing bubble. The sellers there have exhibited a remarkable resistance to serious price cutting. With luck, perhaps some Bear Stearns execs own houses in RSF. -
March 18, 2008 at 6:47 AM #172521
raptorduck
ParticipantKIBU. I think all my letters are in PDF b/c my agent writes them and I comment. There are two camps for me. The first is for that rare house you really love. In that case you make a case for you being the buyer that seller should choose to live in their home that they have loved. This works best for sellers who are still living in their homes. The second is for that house that you think is overpriced. In that case you make a logical argument as to why it is better for the seller to sell to you now at your price, rather than hold out for a higher one.
I am being very general. Each letter we write is taiolored to the particular property, seller, neighborhood, and pricing. Key is to be honest. It is obvious you like the house or you would not be making an offer. Or it should be obvious anyway. But do you love it? If you do say so. If you don’t say so. I love many of the homes I wrote offers on, and really like others. One, the one example above, I lusted for, sheer violent lust. Shame on me. Lust kills self discipline and perspective. I don’t know how I stuck to my rules on that one, but somehow I did. It sold for way above my max anyway, so I would not have bent a rule, I would have shattered one, to get it.
Unless the house is truly unique, I think the logic type letter works best. Again, if the seller is still in the house, you have to consider a more personal approach in my view.
I always tell myself that the sellers are people who can be neighbors and friends. They are not the enemy. Some are ignorant and stubborn, but then again, I can be too, and they will learn on their own terms. I am not rooting for the market to continue falling indefinately. That will hurt everybody in the long run, renters and owners. The economy is a soup and codependent and not a partitioned and self sustaining. As I have stated, my market bottem expectation is around this time next year. There are ways to get a good deal while not contributing to the falling market, very creative ways. But while the market is falling, yes, I have to be cautions and agressive as a rational buyer.
Sellers can be irrational, but they are entitled to be. It is their house. One of my favorites in RSF lowerd her price once, in 2007, to 85% of her original asking in 2006. Unfortunately her comps continued falling to 76% of her second asking price. One neighbors home of about the same size and quality had listed for her same exact listing price. 6 months later it sold for 75% of that. Yet she stuck to her second asking. Recently, she “increased” her asking price because she was fed up with low ball offers and figures if she starts higher, so will they. At market price, I would buy her house, but not at her irrational price. She still lives in it and apparently can afford to be irrational. That is her right. She may not “have” to sell.
Anyway, I note that my rules are just that, my rules. They may not work for anybody but me. I have no unique insights here. They walk well worn paths. Just a unique perspective. I have no secrets. I am just trying to find a home to live in at a time when taking the plunge can be unsettling. In emotional times, I am trying to be unemotional and logical. I may still buy in the next month or so. I have gotten very very close these past few weeks. If I do, my new home will no doubt loose value over the next year and perhaps few years and if I do it according to my rules, I should not worry to much about it.
Soon I will be a seller. Simple rules there too. Fix every little thing wrong with it first. Get inspections done and a disclosure package before I list to show to buyers early. Prepare it for sale properly. Market it agressively. List it for less $/sf than any other home in the area. Drop the price after a short period if no interest. Draw a bottom line for sales price, and take any offer from a strong buyer above that line. Greed and shortsided hopes for a higher offer are the mind killers in this market for sellers. Work the probabilities, not the possibilities. Do not keep it on the market more than 150 days max. Rent it after that. I can cover my mortgage and a little more than that, but not all taxes and insurance, so it will run a bit cash negative.
-
March 18, 2008 at 6:47 AM #172524
raptorduck
ParticipantKIBU. I think all my letters are in PDF b/c my agent writes them and I comment. There are two camps for me. The first is for that rare house you really love. In that case you make a case for you being the buyer that seller should choose to live in their home that they have loved. This works best for sellers who are still living in their homes. The second is for that house that you think is overpriced. In that case you make a logical argument as to why it is better for the seller to sell to you now at your price, rather than hold out for a higher one.
I am being very general. Each letter we write is taiolored to the particular property, seller, neighborhood, and pricing. Key is to be honest. It is obvious you like the house or you would not be making an offer. Or it should be obvious anyway. But do you love it? If you do say so. If you don’t say so. I love many of the homes I wrote offers on, and really like others. One, the one example above, I lusted for, sheer violent lust. Shame on me. Lust kills self discipline and perspective. I don’t know how I stuck to my rules on that one, but somehow I did. It sold for way above my max anyway, so I would not have bent a rule, I would have shattered one, to get it.
Unless the house is truly unique, I think the logic type letter works best. Again, if the seller is still in the house, you have to consider a more personal approach in my view.
I always tell myself that the sellers are people who can be neighbors and friends. They are not the enemy. Some are ignorant and stubborn, but then again, I can be too, and they will learn on their own terms. I am not rooting for the market to continue falling indefinately. That will hurt everybody in the long run, renters and owners. The economy is a soup and codependent and not a partitioned and self sustaining. As I have stated, my market bottem expectation is around this time next year. There are ways to get a good deal while not contributing to the falling market, very creative ways. But while the market is falling, yes, I have to be cautions and agressive as a rational buyer.
Sellers can be irrational, but they are entitled to be. It is their house. One of my favorites in RSF lowerd her price once, in 2007, to 85% of her original asking in 2006. Unfortunately her comps continued falling to 76% of her second asking price. One neighbors home of about the same size and quality had listed for her same exact listing price. 6 months later it sold for 75% of that. Yet she stuck to her second asking. Recently, she “increased” her asking price because she was fed up with low ball offers and figures if she starts higher, so will they. At market price, I would buy her house, but not at her irrational price. She still lives in it and apparently can afford to be irrational. That is her right. She may not “have” to sell.
Anyway, I note that my rules are just that, my rules. They may not work for anybody but me. I have no unique insights here. They walk well worn paths. Just a unique perspective. I have no secrets. I am just trying to find a home to live in at a time when taking the plunge can be unsettling. In emotional times, I am trying to be unemotional and logical. I may still buy in the next month or so. I have gotten very very close these past few weeks. If I do, my new home will no doubt loose value over the next year and perhaps few years and if I do it according to my rules, I should not worry to much about it.
Soon I will be a seller. Simple rules there too. Fix every little thing wrong with it first. Get inspections done and a disclosure package before I list to show to buyers early. Prepare it for sale properly. Market it agressively. List it for less $/sf than any other home in the area. Drop the price after a short period if no interest. Draw a bottom line for sales price, and take any offer from a strong buyer above that line. Greed and shortsided hopes for a higher offer are the mind killers in this market for sellers. Work the probabilities, not the possibilities. Do not keep it on the market more than 150 days max. Rent it after that. I can cover my mortgage and a little more than that, but not all taxes and insurance, so it will run a bit cash negative.
-
March 18, 2008 at 6:47 AM #172544
raptorduck
ParticipantKIBU. I think all my letters are in PDF b/c my agent writes them and I comment. There are two camps for me. The first is for that rare house you really love. In that case you make a case for you being the buyer that seller should choose to live in their home that they have loved. This works best for sellers who are still living in their homes. The second is for that house that you think is overpriced. In that case you make a logical argument as to why it is better for the seller to sell to you now at your price, rather than hold out for a higher one.
I am being very general. Each letter we write is taiolored to the particular property, seller, neighborhood, and pricing. Key is to be honest. It is obvious you like the house or you would not be making an offer. Or it should be obvious anyway. But do you love it? If you do say so. If you don’t say so. I love many of the homes I wrote offers on, and really like others. One, the one example above, I lusted for, sheer violent lust. Shame on me. Lust kills self discipline and perspective. I don’t know how I stuck to my rules on that one, but somehow I did. It sold for way above my max anyway, so I would not have bent a rule, I would have shattered one, to get it.
Unless the house is truly unique, I think the logic type letter works best. Again, if the seller is still in the house, you have to consider a more personal approach in my view.
I always tell myself that the sellers are people who can be neighbors and friends. They are not the enemy. Some are ignorant and stubborn, but then again, I can be too, and they will learn on their own terms. I am not rooting for the market to continue falling indefinately. That will hurt everybody in the long run, renters and owners. The economy is a soup and codependent and not a partitioned and self sustaining. As I have stated, my market bottem expectation is around this time next year. There are ways to get a good deal while not contributing to the falling market, very creative ways. But while the market is falling, yes, I have to be cautions and agressive as a rational buyer.
Sellers can be irrational, but they are entitled to be. It is their house. One of my favorites in RSF lowerd her price once, in 2007, to 85% of her original asking in 2006. Unfortunately her comps continued falling to 76% of her second asking price. One neighbors home of about the same size and quality had listed for her same exact listing price. 6 months later it sold for 75% of that. Yet she stuck to her second asking. Recently, she “increased” her asking price because she was fed up with low ball offers and figures if she starts higher, so will they. At market price, I would buy her house, but not at her irrational price. She still lives in it and apparently can afford to be irrational. That is her right. She may not “have” to sell.
Anyway, I note that my rules are just that, my rules. They may not work for anybody but me. I have no unique insights here. They walk well worn paths. Just a unique perspective. I have no secrets. I am just trying to find a home to live in at a time when taking the plunge can be unsettling. In emotional times, I am trying to be unemotional and logical. I may still buy in the next month or so. I have gotten very very close these past few weeks. If I do, my new home will no doubt loose value over the next year and perhaps few years and if I do it according to my rules, I should not worry to much about it.
Soon I will be a seller. Simple rules there too. Fix every little thing wrong with it first. Get inspections done and a disclosure package before I list to show to buyers early. Prepare it for sale properly. Market it agressively. List it for less $/sf than any other home in the area. Drop the price after a short period if no interest. Draw a bottom line for sales price, and take any offer from a strong buyer above that line. Greed and shortsided hopes for a higher offer are the mind killers in this market for sellers. Work the probabilities, not the possibilities. Do not keep it on the market more than 150 days max. Rent it after that. I can cover my mortgage and a little more than that, but not all taxes and insurance, so it will run a bit cash negative.
-
March 18, 2008 at 6:47 AM #172624
raptorduck
ParticipantKIBU. I think all my letters are in PDF b/c my agent writes them and I comment. There are two camps for me. The first is for that rare house you really love. In that case you make a case for you being the buyer that seller should choose to live in their home that they have loved. This works best for sellers who are still living in their homes. The second is for that house that you think is overpriced. In that case you make a logical argument as to why it is better for the seller to sell to you now at your price, rather than hold out for a higher one.
I am being very general. Each letter we write is taiolored to the particular property, seller, neighborhood, and pricing. Key is to be honest. It is obvious you like the house or you would not be making an offer. Or it should be obvious anyway. But do you love it? If you do say so. If you don’t say so. I love many of the homes I wrote offers on, and really like others. One, the one example above, I lusted for, sheer violent lust. Shame on me. Lust kills self discipline and perspective. I don’t know how I stuck to my rules on that one, but somehow I did. It sold for way above my max anyway, so I would not have bent a rule, I would have shattered one, to get it.
Unless the house is truly unique, I think the logic type letter works best. Again, if the seller is still in the house, you have to consider a more personal approach in my view.
I always tell myself that the sellers are people who can be neighbors and friends. They are not the enemy. Some are ignorant and stubborn, but then again, I can be too, and they will learn on their own terms. I am not rooting for the market to continue falling indefinately. That will hurt everybody in the long run, renters and owners. The economy is a soup and codependent and not a partitioned and self sustaining. As I have stated, my market bottem expectation is around this time next year. There are ways to get a good deal while not contributing to the falling market, very creative ways. But while the market is falling, yes, I have to be cautions and agressive as a rational buyer.
Sellers can be irrational, but they are entitled to be. It is their house. One of my favorites in RSF lowerd her price once, in 2007, to 85% of her original asking in 2006. Unfortunately her comps continued falling to 76% of her second asking price. One neighbors home of about the same size and quality had listed for her same exact listing price. 6 months later it sold for 75% of that. Yet she stuck to her second asking. Recently, she “increased” her asking price because she was fed up with low ball offers and figures if she starts higher, so will they. At market price, I would buy her house, but not at her irrational price. She still lives in it and apparently can afford to be irrational. That is her right. She may not “have” to sell.
Anyway, I note that my rules are just that, my rules. They may not work for anybody but me. I have no unique insights here. They walk well worn paths. Just a unique perspective. I have no secrets. I am just trying to find a home to live in at a time when taking the plunge can be unsettling. In emotional times, I am trying to be unemotional and logical. I may still buy in the next month or so. I have gotten very very close these past few weeks. If I do, my new home will no doubt loose value over the next year and perhaps few years and if I do it according to my rules, I should not worry to much about it.
Soon I will be a seller. Simple rules there too. Fix every little thing wrong with it first. Get inspections done and a disclosure package before I list to show to buyers early. Prepare it for sale properly. Market it agressively. List it for less $/sf than any other home in the area. Drop the price after a short period if no interest. Draw a bottom line for sales price, and take any offer from a strong buyer above that line. Greed and shortsided hopes for a higher offer are the mind killers in this market for sellers. Work the probabilities, not the possibilities. Do not keep it on the market more than 150 days max. Rent it after that. I can cover my mortgage and a little more than that, but not all taxes and insurance, so it will run a bit cash negative.
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March 17, 2008 at 10:36 PM #172404
KIBU
ParticipantRaptorduck, I read your 3 posts and absolutely like your approach. I think that process would give the most information to make the informed decision. You are so patient, I can’t imagine me looking at that many homes and still not hooked already. I am still early in the process and my offers are one zero less. Anyway, if I leave my email address here, could you share with me a sample letter of what one would write? (minus any personal info of course) I already learn from the points above but I will be happy to know the words/terms I would use in the letter. My email address is [email protected]. Thank you.
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March 17, 2008 at 10:36 PM #172411
KIBU
ParticipantRaptorduck, I read your 3 posts and absolutely like your approach. I think that process would give the most information to make the informed decision. You are so patient, I can’t imagine me looking at that many homes and still not hooked already. I am still early in the process and my offers are one zero less. Anyway, if I leave my email address here, could you share with me a sample letter of what one would write? (minus any personal info of course) I already learn from the points above but I will be happy to know the words/terms I would use in the letter. My email address is [email protected]. Thank you.
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March 17, 2008 at 10:36 PM #172429
KIBU
ParticipantRaptorduck, I read your 3 posts and absolutely like your approach. I think that process would give the most information to make the informed decision. You are so patient, I can’t imagine me looking at that many homes and still not hooked already. I am still early in the process and my offers are one zero less. Anyway, if I leave my email address here, could you share with me a sample letter of what one would write? (minus any personal info of course) I already learn from the points above but I will be happy to know the words/terms I would use in the letter. My email address is [email protected]. Thank you.
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March 17, 2008 at 10:36 PM #172508
KIBU
ParticipantRaptorduck, I read your 3 posts and absolutely like your approach. I think that process would give the most information to make the informed decision. You are so patient, I can’t imagine me looking at that many homes and still not hooked already. I am still early in the process and my offers are one zero less. Anyway, if I leave my email address here, could you share with me a sample letter of what one would write? (minus any personal info of course) I already learn from the points above but I will be happy to know the words/terms I would use in the letter. My email address is [email protected]. Thank you.
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March 17, 2008 at 9:48 PM #172349
SD Realtor
ParticipantTerrific post Raptor. It really is astounding how much money is out there on the sidelines. Question, have you been able to track the homes you did not get accepted on that did go into escrow just to see what they eventually did sell for?
Anyways, your example of patience has been one that many should take note of. One things ALWAYS rings true in real estate which is, there will always be another house on the market in the future.
SD Realtor
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March 17, 2008 at 9:48 PM #172356
SD Realtor
ParticipantTerrific post Raptor. It really is astounding how much money is out there on the sidelines. Question, have you been able to track the homes you did not get accepted on that did go into escrow just to see what they eventually did sell for?
Anyways, your example of patience has been one that many should take note of. One things ALWAYS rings true in real estate which is, there will always be another house on the market in the future.
SD Realtor
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March 17, 2008 at 9:48 PM #172374
SD Realtor
ParticipantTerrific post Raptor. It really is astounding how much money is out there on the sidelines. Question, have you been able to track the homes you did not get accepted on that did go into escrow just to see what they eventually did sell for?
Anyways, your example of patience has been one that many should take note of. One things ALWAYS rings true in real estate which is, there will always be another house on the market in the future.
SD Realtor
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March 17, 2008 at 9:48 PM #172454
SD Realtor
ParticipantTerrific post Raptor. It really is astounding how much money is out there on the sidelines. Question, have you been able to track the homes you did not get accepted on that did go into escrow just to see what they eventually did sell for?
Anyways, your example of patience has been one that many should take note of. One things ALWAYS rings true in real estate which is, there will always be another house on the market in the future.
SD Realtor
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