Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › surprise surprise.. home prices ^
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flyer.
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June 28, 2012 at 5:19 AM #746693June 28, 2012 at 2:47 PM #746743
poorgradstudent
ParticipantWell, with Rich posting his analysis it’s pretty clear to me that *Nominal* prices have probably hit a true bottom. Those cheering for a 10-20% additional haircut from current prices are likely to be disappointed.
However, Inflation adjusted prices may still fall a bit. This past winter’s inflation adjusted bottom was lower than the nominal bottom from 2009. It’s entirely possible this winter will bring even lower inflation adjusted values.
Barring a dramatic economic and unemployment recovery, at least 12 more months of flatline behavior with typical seasonal fluctuations and inflation based creep up seem reasonable to expect.June 28, 2012 at 3:44 PM #746751spdrun
Participant^^^
Good to hear. The longer housing prices stay sane, the better, so that Gen Y can get a leg up on the X’er and boomer idiots who are underwater. Must be nice renting from someone 25 years younger who owns 3 properties of the kind that you paid through the nose for.
June 28, 2012 at 4:05 PM #746756bearishgurl
Participant[quote=spdrun]^^^
Good to hear. The longer housing prices stay sane, the better, so that Gen Y can get a leg up on the X’er and boomer idiots who are underwater. Must be nice renting from someone 25 years younger who owns 3 properties of the kind that you paid through the nose for.[/quote]
spdrun, I maintain that for every “boomer” that is currently “underwater,” there are 20-25 “X’ers” who are in the same leaky boat. Anecdotal but based on the people I know, it’s clearly the under-45 crowd (today’s age) who got sucked into purchasing at the height of the market. “Boomers” who are currently underwater likely took too much cash out of their properties. “Boomers” began purchasing RE in the late ’60’s, early ’70’s and most wouldn’t dream of and didn’t NEED to pay the exorbitant asking prices of the “millenium boom.” The vast majority of “boomers” saw right thru the “RE-will-only-go-up. Buy-while-you-still-can” sham.
June 28, 2012 at 4:08 PM #746757Participantspdrun, I’ve got Gen Y kids and am in hopes they will be able to buy decently-located houses in the coming years.
If they can’t, they’ll continue to rent. They refuse to commute.
June 28, 2012 at 4:41 PM #746761
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]^^^
Good to hear. The longer housing prices stay sane, the better, so that Gen Y can get a leg up on the X’er and boomer idiots who are underwater. Must be nice renting from someone 25 years younger who owns 3 properties of the kind that you paid through the nose for.[/quote]
Lol….
You generation Y’ers are going to be bending over paying a lot of taxes to support all the benefits of of the Baby Boomers, during a period of time when the U.S. is not necessarily going to be the leader in a global economy and have way fewer opportunities that generations before you. Double whammy. there’s going to be fewer of you to spread the tax burden over, and the tax burden is going to be bigger with all the entitlement programs that will be due..
Us generation X’ers are going to get hurt too, but not nearly as much as you generation Y’ers and beyond. Not to mention. IF you really think Baby boomers are going to be in bad financial shape, how do you expect them to pay you for rent? Government subsidy, funded by your tax dollars?
I said this before…Be careful what you wish for…Younger generation are going to be burdened more and more with the debt of the previous generation.June 28, 2012 at 4:58 PM #746764ParticipantYou’re neglecting the effects of immigration and legalization of immigrants. Plenty of younger people clamoring to enter the US.
Oh yeah, and plenty of boomers AS WELL AS Xers used their homes as cash machines, and spent the money like drunken sailors, rather than re-investing it. Purchase price doesn’t matter as much as current debt to asset ratio.
June 28, 2012 at 5:53 PM #746769sdrealtor
ParticipantThinking about the 100+ short sales I have been party to and the thousands more of underwater homeowners we have consulted with I’d say the boomers have been doing fine. It was the xers that got hit hardest by a huge margin.
June 28, 2012 at 7:24 PM #746778CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]You’re neglecting the effects of immigration and legalization of immigrants. Plenty of younger people clamoring to enter the US.
[/quote]
You’re neglecting the fact they come here because supposedly they have opportunities here. You’re ignoring the fact that if trends continue the way they are, we will not necessarily be the biggest economy, have the most sophisticated opportunties,etc. I see this all the time in tech, in which people who were originally going to stay here after being on H1-B are actually moving back..
so what’s left, people who come here illegally?
[quote]
Oh yeah, and plenty of boomers AS WELL AS Xers used their homes as cash machines, and spent the money like drunken sailors, rather than re-investing it. Purchase price doesn’t matter as much as current debt to asset ratio.[/quote]Sure, and there are plenty of Generation Y’ers who have loan debt up the yahoo with the ultimate bullshit degrees on the face of the planet that they will never ever be able to pay off…Really spdrun, you can’t generalize this shit…Unless you’re a multi-millionaire (20 million+ today), you’re not immune to a economic demise any more so than anyone else. You’re kidding yourself if you think having a few rentals when the more macro-economy is in the shitter you’re really going to be fine and sail through and simply collecting rent.
I would not be leaping up and down as a generation Y’er. Heck, I’m not leaping up and down as a generation X’er, despite I consider myself to be in much better shape than a lot of generation X’ers. I look at how many baby boomers are going to be retiring, how much medicare/social security/etc they will be entitled to, and look at the taxes we are paying now… Oh boy, it’s sure going to be fun the younger people get here if things don’t change drastically.
But I think the point here is…This isn’t a generation thing. This is an “american people spend more money than they have” thing which doesn’t skip generations.
June 28, 2012 at 10:39 PM #746802lifeisgood
Participantflu wrote:
But I think the point here is…This isn’t a generation thing. This is an “american people spend more money than they have” thing which doesn’t skip generations.[/quote]Love this!
June 30, 2012 at 12:17 AM #746872Aecetia
Participant[quote=flu][quote=spdrun]^^^
Good to hear. The longer housing prices stay sane, the better, so that Gen Y can get a leg up on the X’er and boomer idiots who are underwater. Must be nice renting from someone 25 years younger who owns 3 properties of the kind that you paid through the nose for.[/quote]
Lol….
You generation Y’ers are going to be bending over paying a lot of taxes to support all the benefits of of the Baby Boomers, during a period of time when the U.S. is not necessarily going to be the leader in a global economy and have way fewer opportunities that generations before you. Double whammy. there’s going to be fewer of you to spread the tax burden over, and the tax burden is going to be bigger with all the entitlement programs that will be due..
Us generation X’ers are going to get hurt too, but not nearly as much as you generation Y’ers and beyond. Not to mention. IF you really think Baby boomers are going to be in bad financial shape, how do you expect them to pay you for rent? Government subsidy, funded by your tax dollars?
I said this before…Be careful what you wish for…Younger generation are going to be burdened more and more with the debt of the previous generation.[/quote]Maybe the death panels will turn the old people into soylent green for the younger people, so they can keep taxing them.
June 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM #746909CoronitaParticipant[quote=Aecetia][quote=flu][quote=spdrun]^^^
Good to hear. The longer housing prices stay sane, the better, so that Gen Y can get a leg up on the X’er and boomer idiots who are underwater. Must be nice renting from someone 25 years younger who owns 3 properties of the kind that you paid through the nose for.[/quote]
Lol….
You generation Y’ers are going to be bending over paying a lot of taxes to support all the benefits of of the Baby Boomers, during a period of time when the U.S. is not necessarily going to be the leader in a global economy and have way fewer opportunities that generations before you. Double whammy. there’s going to be fewer of you to spread the tax burden over, and the tax burden is going to be bigger with all the entitlement programs that will be due..
Us generation X’ers are going to get hurt too, but not nearly as much as you generation Y’ers and beyond. Not to mention. IF you really think Baby boomers are going to be in bad financial shape, how do you expect them to pay you for rent? Government subsidy, funded by your tax dollars?
I said this before…Be careful what you wish for…Younger generation are going to be burdened more and more with the debt of the previous generation.[/quote]Maybe the death panels will turn the old people into soylent green for the younger people, so they can keep taxing them.[/quote]
It doesn’t matter..Government will just tax more..It’s already starting….Medicare Tax from Healthcare Reform……Yeah spdrun that’s just the start of I’m pretty sure many many many additional taxes (surcharges, fees,etc) that your generation Y and beyond is going to be paying for…
June 30, 2012 at 1:20 PM #746910ParticipantIf taxes become too onerous, I’m a dual citizen … cut and run, baby 🙂 Leave America to its fate.
A shame really, because it’s a beautiful country founded on beautiful ideas. The problem is that at least 50% of the people who live here are too rock-dumb to appreciate that fact.
But right now, I’m here because I see this country as easily exploitable. If I’m freelance as well as owning income property, I can have the benefits that most Europeans get (flexible vacations + steady income) without the drawbacks.
All this being said, I’m not opposed to taxes that actually PAY for things other than slaughter of innocents in the Middle East. A tax-supported health-care system is a good thing, and should have been implemented 50 years ago.
June 30, 2012 at 5:42 PM #746917flyer
ParticipantSince this thread has been hijacked anyway, as a “Boomer” I couldn’t resist making a few comments.
Since none of us choose when we are born, IMO, the main thing is to make your life the best life it can be for you and your family.
I can only speak for myself and people I know, but most of our friends–especially those near our age (50’s)–have lived, and are living the lives they want to live every single day, with few financial concerns.
Most of us have done just about everything we want to do in the world, and we hope future generations have that same good fortune. I have no animosity toward younger generations–I’m glad to be in a position to pass everything along to my kids, so they can live life to the max also.
Sure, there is always the highly unlikely possibility that America could tank, but if that ever happens, I seriously doubt that any other location in the world will offer a completely safe haven, financially, or otherwise. Friends who live in other countries are far more concerned about their financial futures than we are.
Bottom line is that many people don’t even make it into their 50’s or beyond for health or other reasons–so enjoy life while you can–whatever your age, because you never really know what lies ahead.
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