surprise surprise.. home prices ^

[Coronita]

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/jun/26/sp-home-prices-climb-sd-18-other-cities/

Warning… UT tribune source…Maybe as reliable as national inquirer 🙂

[poorgradstudent]

“April home prices in San Diego are 1.8 percent lower than a year ago.”

These newest numbers aren’t seasonally adjusted. That adjustment would make them look less exciting to those hoping for prices to rise.

[sdrealtor]

How Ironic and timely. I was just packing up my truck for my road trip and thinking how what is happening serves as redemption for the predictions I made 5 to 6 years ago. The permabears and most negative put forth cute theories of how things would play out. Like old time poster Bugs and his Butterfly theory that everything was connected and the distress from the outlying areas would evenutally crush the prime areas just the same. The CAR et al theory that the coast wasnt immune and everyone would eventually get crushed. I argued against it all and get brutalized with rebuttals. The old do you think its different here? Nothing has changed about this area and prices need to go back to 2001 or lower pricing. Well my time to gloat is here and I’m going to.

Here we are at the early stages of a recovery and if nothing else with the worst behind us. The outlying areas got crushed with 50%+ declines and prime NCC areas took less than half that in declines at the most. Many faired even better than that.

Carmel Valley never got hit much more than 15% and prices are at, above or within 5% for most CV single family homes now.

My neighbor sold his house and moved to LC Oaks closing in early 2005 at the height of the frenzy. They just sold their lC Oaks house and after accounting for landscaping a new home still walked away with close to a $100K gain.

Its getting near time for some folks to sneak out the back door with their tails between their legs.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=poorgradstudent]”April home prices in San Diego are 1.8 percent lower than a year ago.”

These newest numbers aren’t seasonally adjusted. That adjustment would make them look less exciting to those hoping for prices to rise.[/quote]

PGS
I dont care what the number say as I see exactly what is happening on the street level and always have. Clearly I might add. Prices took a hard hit between Nov and Jan of this year but have come roaring back to where they were last year. Its not so much an increase as it is a definitive shift in momenetum and market psychology. I dont expect huge price gains but when we see the number next Jan compared to this past Jan dont be surprised to see 10% year over year gains. I’m expecting close to that.

[The-Shoveler]

sdr, Seriously were you knocking on wood when you hit the send button ?
LOL Now would be the time Europe implodes and takes us with it just because of your post..
Just kidding.
But seriously stop it you’re going to jinx the whole recovery thing.

[UCGal]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=poorgradstudent]”April home prices in San Diego are 1.8 percent lower than a year ago.”

These newest numbers aren’t seasonally adjusted. That adjustment would make them look less exciting to those hoping for prices to rise.[/quote]

PGS
I dont care what the number say as I see exactly what is happening on the street level and always have. Clearly I might add. Prices took a hard hit between Nov and Jan of this year but have come roaring back to where they were last year. Its not so much an increase as it is a definitive shift in momenetum and market psychology. I dont expect huge price gains but when we see the number next Jan compared to this past Jan dont be surprised to see 10% year over year gains. I’m expecting close to that.[/quote]
LOL – Hope you don’t care what the numbers say on the thermometer, either. I saw in another thread that you’re headed to Scottsdale. Current temp there is 109.5.

I have cousins and an Aunt in AZ. Not enough $$ in the world to make me visit them during the summer.

[sdrealtor]

Wandering around deserts in the Summer is in my ancestral bloodlines:)

[bearishgurl]

I’m sure all those AriDzona hotels/motels must be pretty cheap about now.

[Coronita]

What is there to do in Arizona anyway? Serious question.

[moneymaker]

I’m sure in 1933 people felt pretty much the same as the majority of posters here do. Just a thought, recovery could go either way and I doubt the next puppident will make any difference. According to Zillow, I’ve made more on my house this month than I’ve lost in the market, that makes me feel a little better. Oh yeah and I can theoretically rent my house for more than I’m paying on my 20 year mortgage. Still not feeling nirvana however, once HPQ hits $40 later this year I’ll feel better though.

[sdrealtor]

Only two things really matter. Do you like your home and can you afford it? The rest is just paper gains/losses that only cause lost sleep if you let them

[CDMA ENG]

[quote=flu]What is there to do in Arizona anyway? Serious question.[/quote]

Well most people think all of Arizona is like the sonoran desert but if you get into the Mogolian Rim area it cools down dramatically. There great place to visit like Sedona, Prescott, and Flagstaff. AZ is truely one of the most diverse states in the union. Some great places are Slide Rock Park, Havasupi Falls and anywhere on the Mogolian Rim. All of these areas will have far more moderate temperatures than the lowlands. BTW Tucson has to really neat stops for road trips if you can spare a day and are in to aircraft. One is the Pima Air and Space Museum and the other is the Titan Missile Facility.

CE

[Coronita]

[quote=CDMA ENG][quote=flu]What is there to do in Arizona anyway? Serious question.[/quote]

Well most people think all of Arizona is like the sonoran desert but if you get into the Mogolian Rim area it cools down dramatically. There great place to visit like Sedona, Prescott, and Flagstaff. AZ is truely one of the most diverse states in the union. Some great places are Slide Rock Park, Havasupi Falls and anywhere on the Mogolian Rim. All of these areas will have far more moderate temperatures than the lowlands. BTW Tucson has to really neat stops for road trips if you can spare a day and are in to aircraft. One is the Pima Air and Space Museum and the other is the Titan Missile Facility.

CE[/quote]

Did not know…. Now I do….

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]How Ironic and timely. I was just packing up my truck for my road trip and thinking how what is happening serves as redemption for the predictions I made 5 to 6 years ago. The permabears and most negative put forth cute theories of how things would play out. Like old time poster Bugs and his Butterfly theory that everything was connected and the distress from the outlying areas would evenutally crush the prime areas just the same. The CAR et al theory that the coast wasnt immune and everyone would eventually get crushed. I argued against it all and get brutalized with rebuttals. The old do you think its different here? Nothing has changed about this area and prices need to go back to 2001 or lower pricing. Well my time to gloat is here and I’m going to.

Here we are at the early stages of a recovery and if nothing else with the worst behind us. The outlying areas got crushed with 50%+ declines and prime NCC areas took less than half that in declines at the most. Many faired even better than that.

Carmel Valley never got hit much more than 15% and prices are at, above or within 5% for most CV single family homes now.

My neighbor sold his house and moved to LC Oaks closing in early 2005 at the height of the frenzy. They just sold their lC Oaks house and after accounting for landscaping a new home still walked away with close to a $100K gain.

Its getting near time for some folks to sneak out the back door with their tails between their legs.[/quote]

Are you saying that these prices are sustainable if interest rates and inventory levels normalize? Do you think they would be at these levels if not for all the manipulation in the housing and credit markets?

In response to your post in the other thread, I also predicted the manipulations (including the homebuyers’ tax credit, rate manipulation, holding foreclosures off the market, and nationalization of the GSEs…years before it actually happened), and have said from the very beginning that I thought we would bottom out in 2012 **IF** the Fed/govt didn’t intervene. I have always said that if they manipulated the market, they would only succeed in prolonging the pain, and that it would take many additional years to get through the recession/depression.

You’re seeing an anomaly WRT inventory and rates, and you’re claiming that we are somehow at the bottom of this cycle? I could not disagree more.

You’ve won the battle, and you can gloat over your steak and lobster dinner, but you have not won the war. 😉
…………………..

BTW, have a fun trip. 🙂

[sdrealtor]

These prices are sustainable PERIOD! What it takes to keep them that way and how doesn’t matter. They will find a way and I always believed it. People love their homes in this country and TPTB understand that. They will do whatever is necessary to keep people happy now because that will keep them in power.

You are trying to claim both sides of the argument now. Sorry you can’t get away with that. You said they wouldn’t nor could they be success in propping up the market long enough for time and inflation to do their job. You were the deflationista. Clearly they are, have and will win the war.

Whether or not this is a natural unmanipulated bottom is irrelevant too. A bottom doesn’t have to be a natural unmanipulated one. This one isn’t and never was going to be.

While the war wages on the winner has already been determined. The gulf war is a good parallel. It was costly, stupid and immoral. Claiming meaningful victories along the way are few and far between. We are still fighting and will be for years but Old Glory will still be flying highest through it all not some Middle Eastern flag.

Thanx for the well wishes. The Grand Canyon is my favorite national park and something everyone in America should see. Pictures do not begin to do it justice.

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