Summertime

[j]

The media is saying that things will be better in 2009.

The RE market will continue to decline as far as I can tell in 2009, because REOs continue to climb. People that can make their payments will not sell, but banks will at lower prices. If unemployment continues to climb as RE “professionals” and construction works lose their jobs it will get ugly. People still believe is RE, if they stop believing sales will completely fall off a cliff.

[sdduuuude]

I expect the “HS” period to last from Sept through Jan.

This is the soft part of the year in the second half of the decline, now nearly 3 years old.

If the decline lasts for 5 years – from Sept 2005 through 2010, then we are past the midpoint but still in the steep part of the drop AND heading out of Spring.

Next year at this time, we will also be entering the softer part of the year, but the slope of the decline will likely have started to taper off, county-wide.

Yes – splitting into different markets is key. Part of the “HS” period is that CV realizes there is no escape. Fall 2009 may be be worse for CV, but county-wide, this Fall is when it really sinks in.

[sdduuuude]

I expect the “HS” period to last from Sept through Jan.

This is the soft part of the year in the second half of the decline, now nearly 3 years old.

If the decline lasts for 5 years – from Sept 2005 through 2010, then we are past the midpoint but still in the steep part of the drop AND heading out of Spring.

Next year at this time, we will also be entering the softer part of the year, but the slope of the decline will likely have started to taper off, county-wide.

Yes – splitting into different markets is key. Part of the “HS” period is that CV realizes there is no escape. Fall 2009 may be be worse for CV, but county-wide, this Fall is when it really sinks in.

[sdduuuude]

I expect the “HS” period to last from Sept through Jan.

This is the soft part of the year in the second half of the decline, now nearly 3 years old.

If the decline lasts for 5 years – from Sept 2005 through 2010, then we are past the midpoint but still in the steep part of the drop AND heading out of Spring.

Next year at this time, we will also be entering the softer part of the year, but the slope of the decline will likely have started to taper off, county-wide.

Yes – splitting into different markets is key. Part of the “HS” period is that CV realizes there is no escape. Fall 2009 may be be worse for CV, but county-wide, this Fall is when it really sinks in.

[sdduuuude]

I expect the “HS” period to last from Sept through Jan.

This is the soft part of the year in the second half of the decline, now nearly 3 years old.

If the decline lasts for 5 years – from Sept 2005 through 2010, then we are past the midpoint but still in the steep part of the drop AND heading out of Spring.

Next year at this time, we will also be entering the softer part of the year, but the slope of the decline will likely have started to taper off, county-wide.

Yes – splitting into different markets is key. Part of the “HS” period is that CV realizes there is no escape. Fall 2009 may be be worse for CV, but county-wide, this Fall is when it really sinks in.

[sdduuuude]

I expect the “HS” period to last from Sept through Jan.

This is the soft part of the year in the second half of the decline, now nearly 3 years old.

If the decline lasts for 5 years – from Sept 2005 through 2010, then we are past the midpoint but still in the steep part of the drop AND heading out of Spring.

Next year at this time, we will also be entering the softer part of the year, but the slope of the decline will likely have started to taper off, county-wide.

Yes – splitting into different markets is key. Part of the “HS” period is that CV realizes there is no escape. Fall 2009 may be be worse for CV, but county-wide, this Fall is when it really sinks in.

[DWCAP]

Just out of curiosity, what does “feel the heat” mean?

-A further reduction in total sales?
-An acceleration in price decreases?
-A continued reduction in new homes?
-Median hanky panky by the RE industry?
-The ‘head in sand’ group being uprooted?
-CV and 4S (etc etc) “affordability” improving?

-Promises of only 6 more months till the recovery? (Remember, 7 more days till the Q3 recovery we were promised starts, though we won’t have the data for it till Q4).

[DWCAP]

Just out of curiosity, what does “feel the heat” mean?

-A further reduction in total sales?
-An acceleration in price decreases?
-A continued reduction in new homes?
-Median hanky panky by the RE industry?
-The ‘head in sand’ group being uprooted?
-CV and 4S (etc etc) “affordability” improving?

-Promises of only 6 more months till the recovery? (Remember, 7 more days till the Q3 recovery we were promised starts, though we won’t have the data for it till Q4).

[DWCAP]

Just out of curiosity, what does “feel the heat” mean?

-A further reduction in total sales?
-An acceleration in price decreases?
-A continued reduction in new homes?
-Median hanky panky by the RE industry?
-The ‘head in sand’ group being uprooted?
-CV and 4S (etc etc) “affordability” improving?

-Promises of only 6 more months till the recovery? (Remember, 7 more days till the Q3 recovery we were promised starts, though we won’t have the data for it till Q4).

[DWCAP]

Just out of curiosity, what does “feel the heat” mean?

-A further reduction in total sales?
-An acceleration in price decreases?
-A continued reduction in new homes?
-Median hanky panky by the RE industry?
-The ‘head in sand’ group being uprooted?
-CV and 4S (etc etc) “affordability” improving?

-Promises of only 6 more months till the recovery? (Remember, 7 more days till the Q3 recovery we were promised starts, though we won’t have the data for it till Q4).

[DWCAP]

Just out of curiosity, what does “feel the heat” mean?

-A further reduction in total sales?
-An acceleration in price decreases?
-A continued reduction in new homes?
-Median hanky panky by the RE industry?
-The ‘head in sand’ group being uprooted?
-CV and 4S (etc etc) “affordability” improving?

-Promises of only 6 more months till the recovery? (Remember, 7 more days till the Q3 recovery we were promised starts, though we won’t have the data for it till Q4).

[cvwater]

I tried to post a poll to understand how many of you would buy a CV house right now if it is in a good condition and is at a price 5% below 2003’s assuming you have to buy in the next 5 years and can afford it for the life of 30 yr loan.

Anybody can help to post such poll with two options to choose: 1- yes buy now. 2- no, wait for another 6-24 months.

thanks

[cvwater]

I tried to post a poll to understand how many of you would buy a CV house right now if it is in a good condition and is at a price 5% below 2003’s assuming you have to buy in the next 5 years and can afford it for the life of 30 yr loan.

Anybody can help to post such poll with two options to choose: 1- yes buy now. 2- no, wait for another 6-24 months.

thanks

[cvwater]

I tried to post a poll to understand how many of you would buy a CV house right now if it is in a good condition and is at a price 5% below 2003’s assuming you have to buy in the next 5 years and can afford it for the life of 30 yr loan.

Anybody can help to post such poll with two options to choose: 1- yes buy now. 2- no, wait for another 6-24 months.

thanks

[cvwater]

I tried to post a poll to understand how many of you would buy a CV house right now if it is in a good condition and is at a price 5% below 2003’s assuming you have to buy in the next 5 years and can afford it for the life of 30 yr loan.

Anybody can help to post such poll with two options to choose: 1- yes buy now. 2- no, wait for another 6-24 months.

thanks

[Author]

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