Spring Housing Prediction

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=CA renter]

We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”

Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]

By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.

These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.

[CA renter]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=CA renter]

We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”

Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]

By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.

These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.

[/quote]

But we’ve not seen the convergence of so many **new** policies directed toward the housing market in many decades (since the GD???). What’s going on right now WRT inflationary tactics on a global scale is rather unprecedented, no?

[CA renter]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=CA renter]

We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”

Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]

By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.

These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.

[/quote]

But we’ve not seen the convergence of so many **new** policies directed toward the housing market in many decades (since the GD???). What’s going on right now WRT inflationary tactics on a global scale is rather unprecedented, no?

[CA renter]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=CA renter]

We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”

Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]

By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.

These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.

[/quote]

But we’ve not seen the convergence of so many **new** policies directed toward the housing market in many decades (since the GD???). What’s going on right now WRT inflationary tactics on a global scale is rather unprecedented, no?

[CA renter]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=CA renter]

We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”

Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]

By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.

These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.

[/quote]

But we’ve not seen the convergence of so many **new** policies directed toward the housing market in many decades (since the GD???). What’s going on right now WRT inflationary tactics on a global scale is rather unprecedented, no?

[CA renter]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=CA renter]

We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”

Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]

By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.

These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.

[/quote]

But we’ve not seen the convergence of so many **new** policies directed toward the housing market in many decades (since the GD???). What’s going on right now WRT inflationary tactics on a global scale is rather unprecedented, no?

[gandalf]

Soros? Markets are manipulated and irrational?

For my part, I’ve underestimated the extent to which markets can be manipulated and abused by an oligopoly with government backing.

[gandalf]

Soros? Markets are manipulated and irrational?

For my part, I’ve underestimated the extent to which markets can be manipulated and abused by an oligopoly with government backing.

[gandalf]

Soros? Markets are manipulated and irrational?

For my part, I’ve underestimated the extent to which markets can be manipulated and abused by an oligopoly with government backing.

[gandalf]

Soros? Markets are manipulated and irrational?

For my part, I’ve underestimated the extent to which markets can be manipulated and abused by an oligopoly with government backing.

[gandalf]

Soros? Markets are manipulated and irrational?

For my part, I’ve underestimated the extent to which markets can be manipulated and abused by an oligopoly with government backing.

[sdrealtor]

bump

Its here, its still happening, inventory gets worse by the day and the market is getting stronger………….

Russ
When rates were above 5.5% I predicted 4% rates for everyone which would stimulate refinancing and hence increase discretionary spending. We got pretty darn close with sub 4.5% rates for everyone at one point. I still wouldnt rule out 4% rates later this year. I’m calling a grand slam on my predictions. And no I’m not taking female hormones like you know who…..

[sdrealtor]

bump

Its here, its still happening, inventory gets worse by the day and the market is getting stronger………….

Russ
When rates were above 5.5% I predicted 4% rates for everyone which would stimulate refinancing and hence increase discretionary spending. We got pretty darn close with sub 4.5% rates for everyone at one point. I still wouldnt rule out 4% rates later this year. I’m calling a grand slam on my predictions. And no I’m not taking female hormones like you know who…..

[sdrealtor]

bump

Its here, its still happening, inventory gets worse by the day and the market is getting stronger………….

Russ
When rates were above 5.5% I predicted 4% rates for everyone which would stimulate refinancing and hence increase discretionary spending. We got pretty darn close with sub 4.5% rates for everyone at one point. I still wouldnt rule out 4% rates later this year. I’m calling a grand slam on my predictions. And no I’m not taking female hormones like you know who…..

[sdrealtor]

bump

Its here, its still happening, inventory gets worse by the day and the market is getting stronger………….

Russ
When rates were above 5.5% I predicted 4% rates for everyone which would stimulate refinancing and hence increase discretionary spending. We got pretty darn close with sub 4.5% rates for everyone at one point. I still wouldnt rule out 4% rates later this year. I’m calling a grand slam on my predictions. And no I’m not taking female hormones like you know who…..

[Author]

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