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April 26, 2009 at 10:34 AM #388138April 26, 2009 at 10:40 AM #387480
NotCranky
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Thanx Russ
For what it is worth I have always had a knack for being 6 months to a year ahead of what is happening in every industry i have ever worked in. It has served me well.I just re-read the original thread and I dont know whether I could have been more on target than I was. I really nailed each segment of the market. I am set up very well for a great year to follow and expect to have 2 or 3 more just as good. Then I sail off quietly to sea for a lifetime of peace and tranquility…………..
BTW, I closed 7 sales for about $4M this month in SD, OC and RC combined. I had by far my best month ever. I only wish i had collected more listings.
It has been grueling and has sucked the life out me at times. There was the nice 4 day jaunt to Hawaii to break it up though……..[/quote]
O.K. enough of this! I still havent seen 4% interest rates for everyone…. patience, right? Probabaly…LOL.
April 26, 2009 at 10:40 AM #387750Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Thanx Russ
For what it is worth I have always had a knack for being 6 months to a year ahead of what is happening in every industry i have ever worked in. It has served me well.I just re-read the original thread and I dont know whether I could have been more on target than I was. I really nailed each segment of the market. I am set up very well for a great year to follow and expect to have 2 or 3 more just as good. Then I sail off quietly to sea for a lifetime of peace and tranquility…………..
BTW, I closed 7 sales for about $4M this month in SD, OC and RC combined. I had by far my best month ever. I only wish i had collected more listings.
It has been grueling and has sucked the life out me at times. There was the nice 4 day jaunt to Hawaii to break it up though……..[/quote]
O.K. enough of this! I still havent seen 4% interest rates for everyone…. patience, right? Probabaly…LOL.
April 26, 2009 at 10:40 AM #387950Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Thanx Russ
For what it is worth I have always had a knack for being 6 months to a year ahead of what is happening in every industry i have ever worked in. It has served me well.I just re-read the original thread and I dont know whether I could have been more on target than I was. I really nailed each segment of the market. I am set up very well for a great year to follow and expect to have 2 or 3 more just as good. Then I sail off quietly to sea for a lifetime of peace and tranquility…………..
BTW, I closed 7 sales for about $4M this month in SD, OC and RC combined. I had by far my best month ever. I only wish i had collected more listings.
It has been grueling and has sucked the life out me at times. There was the nice 4 day jaunt to Hawaii to break it up though……..[/quote]
O.K. enough of this! I still havent seen 4% interest rates for everyone…. patience, right? Probabaly…LOL.
April 26, 2009 at 10:40 AM #388004Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Thanx Russ
For what it is worth I have always had a knack for being 6 months to a year ahead of what is happening in every industry i have ever worked in. It has served me well.I just re-read the original thread and I dont know whether I could have been more on target than I was. I really nailed each segment of the market. I am set up very well for a great year to follow and expect to have 2 or 3 more just as good. Then I sail off quietly to sea for a lifetime of peace and tranquility…………..
BTW, I closed 7 sales for about $4M this month in SD, OC and RC combined. I had by far my best month ever. I only wish i had collected more listings.
It has been grueling and has sucked the life out me at times. There was the nice 4 day jaunt to Hawaii to break it up though……..[/quote]
O.K. enough of this! I still havent seen 4% interest rates for everyone…. patience, right? Probabaly…LOL.
April 26, 2009 at 10:40 AM #388143Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Thanx Russ
For what it is worth I have always had a knack for being 6 months to a year ahead of what is happening in every industry i have ever worked in. It has served me well.I just re-read the original thread and I dont know whether I could have been more on target than I was. I really nailed each segment of the market. I am set up very well for a great year to follow and expect to have 2 or 3 more just as good. Then I sail off quietly to sea for a lifetime of peace and tranquility…………..
BTW, I closed 7 sales for about $4M this month in SD, OC and RC combined. I had by far my best month ever. I only wish i had collected more listings.
It has been grueling and has sucked the life out me at times. There was the nice 4 day jaunt to Hawaii to break it up though……..[/quote]
O.K. enough of this! I still havent seen 4% interest rates for everyone…. patience, right? Probabaly…LOL.
April 26, 2009 at 5:54 PM #387514CA renter
Participant[quote=CA renter]Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).
Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉
I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.
After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.[/quote]
Dredging up my post from last November, I was very wrong on 2008 having the higher sales.
Still…the 10%+ unemployment part was right, unfortunatley. It will be interesting to see Q3 of 2009.
It’s important to remember that all of this housing (hyper)activity is NOT organic. We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
April 26, 2009 at 5:54 PM #387784Participant[quote=CA renter]Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).
Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉
I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.
After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.[/quote]
Dredging up my post from last November, I was very wrong on 2008 having the higher sales.
Still…the 10%+ unemployment part was right, unfortunatley. It will be interesting to see Q3 of 2009.
It’s important to remember that all of this housing (hyper)activity is NOT organic. We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
April 26, 2009 at 5:54 PM #387985Participant[quote=CA renter]Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).
Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉
I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.
After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.[/quote]
Dredging up my post from last November, I was very wrong on 2008 having the higher sales.
Still…the 10%+ unemployment part was right, unfortunatley. It will be interesting to see Q3 of 2009.
It’s important to remember that all of this housing (hyper)activity is NOT organic. We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
April 26, 2009 at 5:54 PM #388039Participant[quote=CA renter]Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).
Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉
I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.
After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.[/quote]
Dredging up my post from last November, I was very wrong on 2008 having the higher sales.
Still…the 10%+ unemployment part was right, unfortunatley. It will be interesting to see Q3 of 2009.
It’s important to remember that all of this housing (hyper)activity is NOT organic. We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
April 26, 2009 at 5:54 PM #388178Participant[quote=CA renter]Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).
Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉
I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.
After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.[/quote]
Dredging up my post from last November, I was very wrong on 2008 having the higher sales.
Still…the 10%+ unemployment part was right, unfortunatley. It will be interesting to see Q3 of 2009.
It’s important to remember that all of this housing (hyper)activity is NOT organic. We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
April 27, 2009 at 8:46 AM #388073(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=CA renter]
We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.
April 27, 2009 at 8:46 AM #388339Participant[quote=CA renter]
We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.
April 27, 2009 at 8:46 AM #388537Participant[quote=CA renter]
We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.
April 27, 2009 at 8:46 AM #388590Participant[quote=CA renter]
We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.
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