Spring Housing Prediction

[SD Realtor]

Hi Peter –

Yep there is an undetermined amount of fraud on the section of the RPA that asks about owner occupancy. You called it.

I think also there are investor groups making bulk purchases that are beyond the scope of my knowledge because they make direct purchases from lenders and get large discounts. Down at my level I can only comment on the frustrations my own clients have seen when they ask me to call in on this short sale, or that short sale. You see what I am saying? Last year it would be like, call any short sale and the bulk of them didn’t have offers and the agents would beg you to send em in. Not the same today. Also there really is a lack of quality inventory. A nice place hit the market in Calavera Hills 4 days ago. There is an identical floorplan 3 houses down that is already pending. The new listing was listed 100k more then the pending listing (the pending one is a short sale btw) The new listing had 5 offers in 4 days, the accepted offer being all cash and above asking. That is freaking crazy!!! Now the new listing showed great and had a lot size that was 40% larger. Without any doubt I feel that this new listing would not have had that activity last summer. No how, no way. Yet it was a home that showed really well, and was priced aggressively compared to the other nicer homes in the neighborhood. Also the pending home in Normal Heights on Panorama is another case of me scratching my head. No way in hell that thing should go for a penny over the mid 700s but it is in escrow at 829. What the hell!! Anyways these are only two examples but two I am familiar with because I had buyers that got scorched in each of them. I can give many more examples but again, it is all smaller stuff. Whether it is anecdotal on a more macro level is speculative, I think it is though. I also really do believe it is temporary.

Getting back to the statement about tracking inventory as a flawed indicator. I think that you are right, it does have to many dislocations. Unfortunately it is a very basic statistic that is the foundation for other measurements and without it things become challenging. I am not sure what to do to compensate for it. I was thinking about trying to look at the number of cancelled, expireds, and withdrawns for various time periods of the past couple years. It may give some more info but I suspect nothing of substantial value. Still though it may be worth it.

I think in general we will see a flattening of the curves in many areas and steepening of the curve in other areas that are in the 800 plus range. (wow what a revelation right?)

As far as the crazy stuff goes yep I agree. I think between the crazy stuff our white house, fed and treasury are going to do and the crazy stuff the real estate market will do it will be quite a ride.

[NotCranky]

[quote=SD Realtor]Rus nothing is wrong with working with Jim Klinge. I think the world of Jim and he is quite successful.

I just sent you the email you sent me in March of 2008. The point I was making was that somehow in your world, and don’t ask me how, you made some incorrect assumption that I had partnered up with Jim.

It is just an illustration of how you have taken something, don’t ask me what, to form a completely incoherent conclusion. At least you had the discretion to cast that dispersion in a private manner.

Again, all I am trying to say is that you are the one making all these assumptions. You are the one who has posted how you “important” you think real estate is to me. Don’t hide behind your “contrarian” point of view Rus. You have made illusions to Rich and me having some sort of business deal, you have made a reference to me relying solely on real estate in this very thread. Then you go and laugh it off and make statements about not being serious.

You can keep doing whatever you want to do. [/quote]

Adam,

“So you went ahead and hooked up with Jim? That is interesting.”

I got your copy of that email.

It’s pretty unbelievable that you would use this little misunderstanding, friendly as far as I can tell, to try to discredit me the other day.In that chain of emails we were discussing whether you would or would not hook up with him. What dispersion?Why great display of convoluted thinking and “incoherent conclusion”? Like I said, even if I made a mistake how serious was it?

You used to admit with a chuckle that you did the things I am talking about in defense of myself and in hopes of keeping it “on topic” real on Piggingtons… the bullish anecdotes and innuendo. What changed that?

I know you are not going to change your particular model of salesmanship, and I actually tried to leave you alone after the thing with Rich,which you are also willfully mis-characterizing, but you wanted to play around on a few threads and wouldn’t let it go.

Give me a break and some respect dude.

Sincerely,

Contrarian Realtor

[NotCranky]

[quote=SD Realtor]Rus nothing is wrong with working with Jim Klinge. I think the world of Jim and he is quite successful.

I just sent you the email you sent me in March of 2008. The point I was making was that somehow in your world, and don’t ask me how, you made some incorrect assumption that I had partnered up with Jim.

It is just an illustration of how you have taken something, don’t ask me what, to form a completely incoherent conclusion. At least you had the discretion to cast that dispersion in a private manner.

Again, all I am trying to say is that you are the one making all these assumptions. You are the one who has posted how you “important” you think real estate is to me. Don’t hide behind your “contrarian” point of view Rus. You have made illusions to Rich and me having some sort of business deal, you have made a reference to me relying solely on real estate in this very thread. Then you go and laugh it off and make statements about not being serious.

You can keep doing whatever you want to do. [/quote]

Adam,

“So you went ahead and hooked up with Jim? That is interesting.”

I got your copy of that email.

It’s pretty unbelievable that you would use this little misunderstanding, friendly as far as I can tell, to try to discredit me the other day.In that chain of emails we were discussing whether you would or would not hook up with him. What dispersion?Why great display of convoluted thinking and “incoherent conclusion”? Like I said, even if I made a mistake how serious was it?

You used to admit with a chuckle that you did the things I am talking about in defense of myself and in hopes of keeping it “on topic” real on Piggingtons… the bullish anecdotes and innuendo. What changed that?

I know you are not going to change your particular model of salesmanship, and I actually tried to leave you alone after the thing with Rich,which you are also willfully mis-characterizing, but you wanted to play around on a few threads and wouldn’t let it go.

Give me a break and some respect dude.

Sincerely,

Contrarian Realtor

[NotCranky]

[quote=SD Realtor]Rus nothing is wrong with working with Jim Klinge. I think the world of Jim and he is quite successful.

I just sent you the email you sent me in March of 2008. The point I was making was that somehow in your world, and don’t ask me how, you made some incorrect assumption that I had partnered up with Jim.

It is just an illustration of how you have taken something, don’t ask me what, to form a completely incoherent conclusion. At least you had the discretion to cast that dispersion in a private manner.

Again, all I am trying to say is that you are the one making all these assumptions. You are the one who has posted how you “important” you think real estate is to me. Don’t hide behind your “contrarian” point of view Rus. You have made illusions to Rich and me having some sort of business deal, you have made a reference to me relying solely on real estate in this very thread. Then you go and laugh it off and make statements about not being serious.

You can keep doing whatever you want to do. [/quote]

Adam,

“So you went ahead and hooked up with Jim? That is interesting.”

I got your copy of that email.

It’s pretty unbelievable that you would use this little misunderstanding, friendly as far as I can tell, to try to discredit me the other day.In that chain of emails we were discussing whether you would or would not hook up with him. What dispersion?Why great display of convoluted thinking and “incoherent conclusion”? Like I said, even if I made a mistake how serious was it?

You used to admit with a chuckle that you did the things I am talking about in defense of myself and in hopes of keeping it “on topic” real on Piggingtons… the bullish anecdotes and innuendo. What changed that?

I know you are not going to change your particular model of salesmanship, and I actually tried to leave you alone after the thing with Rich,which you are also willfully mis-characterizing, but you wanted to play around on a few threads and wouldn’t let it go.

Give me a break and some respect dude.

Sincerely,

Contrarian Realtor

[NotCranky]

[quote=SD Realtor]Rus nothing is wrong with working with Jim Klinge. I think the world of Jim and he is quite successful.

I just sent you the email you sent me in March of 2008. The point I was making was that somehow in your world, and don’t ask me how, you made some incorrect assumption that I had partnered up with Jim.

It is just an illustration of how you have taken something, don’t ask me what, to form a completely incoherent conclusion. At least you had the discretion to cast that dispersion in a private manner.

Again, all I am trying to say is that you are the one making all these assumptions. You are the one who has posted how you “important” you think real estate is to me. Don’t hide behind your “contrarian” point of view Rus. You have made illusions to Rich and me having some sort of business deal, you have made a reference to me relying solely on real estate in this very thread. Then you go and laugh it off and make statements about not being serious.

You can keep doing whatever you want to do. [/quote]

Adam,

“So you went ahead and hooked up with Jim? That is interesting.”

I got your copy of that email.

It’s pretty unbelievable that you would use this little misunderstanding, friendly as far as I can tell, to try to discredit me the other day.In that chain of emails we were discussing whether you would or would not hook up with him. What dispersion?Why great display of convoluted thinking and “incoherent conclusion”? Like I said, even if I made a mistake how serious was it?

You used to admit with a chuckle that you did the things I am talking about in defense of myself and in hopes of keeping it “on topic” real on Piggingtons… the bullish anecdotes and innuendo. What changed that?

I know you are not going to change your particular model of salesmanship, and I actually tried to leave you alone after the thing with Rich,which you are also willfully mis-characterizing, but you wanted to play around on a few threads and wouldn’t let it go.

Give me a break and some respect dude.

Sincerely,

Contrarian Realtor

[NotCranky]

[quote=SD Realtor]Rus nothing is wrong with working with Jim Klinge. I think the world of Jim and he is quite successful.

I just sent you the email you sent me in March of 2008. The point I was making was that somehow in your world, and don’t ask me how, you made some incorrect assumption that I had partnered up with Jim.

It is just an illustration of how you have taken something, don’t ask me what, to form a completely incoherent conclusion. At least you had the discretion to cast that dispersion in a private manner.

Again, all I am trying to say is that you are the one making all these assumptions. You are the one who has posted how you “important” you think real estate is to me. Don’t hide behind your “contrarian” point of view Rus. You have made illusions to Rich and me having some sort of business deal, you have made a reference to me relying solely on real estate in this very thread. Then you go and laugh it off and make statements about not being serious.

You can keep doing whatever you want to do. [/quote]

Adam,

“So you went ahead and hooked up with Jim? That is interesting.”

I got your copy of that email.

It’s pretty unbelievable that you would use this little misunderstanding, friendly as far as I can tell, to try to discredit me the other day.In that chain of emails we were discussing whether you would or would not hook up with him. What dispersion?Why great display of convoluted thinking and “incoherent conclusion”? Like I said, even if I made a mistake how serious was it?

You used to admit with a chuckle that you did the things I am talking about in defense of myself and in hopes of keeping it “on topic” real on Piggingtons… the bullish anecdotes and innuendo. What changed that?

I know you are not going to change your particular model of salesmanship, and I actually tried to leave you alone after the thing with Rich,which you are also willfully mis-characterizing, but you wanted to play around on a few threads and wouldn’t let it go.

Give me a break and some respect dude.

Sincerely,

Contrarian Realtor

[peterb]

Yes, I think the official stats are hiding all kinds of things. In this market, one has to get out there and actually be in the areas, make offers, follow transactions, etc…to get at the truth. It’s clearly getting strong downward pressure, but the activity level is a bit counter-intuitive. And that always causes me to be suspicious. I suspect that a lot of the $300k and under volume is speculative. As in investors are buying and renting them out. If this is the case, it will dry up as they max-out their ability to get money. The unemployment rate is just too high for me to believe that most sales volume is organic in nature. I could be wrong, but I’ve done a lot of historical analysis on the CA RE market over the years.

What’s happening in the $450K and above market makes complete sense to me at this time, though. This inventory has yet to get big, nor has it seen an increase in sale volume. Until the default-train hits this price level of the market, only forced circumstances should be putting inventory on the market. But if the current data on upside down Alt A and prime loans being in default is at all accurate… that train should be arriving somewhere around late summer.

[peterb]

Yes, I think the official stats are hiding all kinds of things. In this market, one has to get out there and actually be in the areas, make offers, follow transactions, etc…to get at the truth. It’s clearly getting strong downward pressure, but the activity level is a bit counter-intuitive. And that always causes me to be suspicious. I suspect that a lot of the $300k and under volume is speculative. As in investors are buying and renting them out. If this is the case, it will dry up as they max-out their ability to get money. The unemployment rate is just too high for me to believe that most sales volume is organic in nature. I could be wrong, but I’ve done a lot of historical analysis on the CA RE market over the years.

What’s happening in the $450K and above market makes complete sense to me at this time, though. This inventory has yet to get big, nor has it seen an increase in sale volume. Until the default-train hits this price level of the market, only forced circumstances should be putting inventory on the market. But if the current data on upside down Alt A and prime loans being in default is at all accurate… that train should be arriving somewhere around late summer.

[peterb]

Yes, I think the official stats are hiding all kinds of things. In this market, one has to get out there and actually be in the areas, make offers, follow transactions, etc…to get at the truth. It’s clearly getting strong downward pressure, but the activity level is a bit counter-intuitive. And that always causes me to be suspicious. I suspect that a lot of the $300k and under volume is speculative. As in investors are buying and renting them out. If this is the case, it will dry up as they max-out their ability to get money. The unemployment rate is just too high for me to believe that most sales volume is organic in nature. I could be wrong, but I’ve done a lot of historical analysis on the CA RE market over the years.

What’s happening in the $450K and above market makes complete sense to me at this time, though. This inventory has yet to get big, nor has it seen an increase in sale volume. Until the default-train hits this price level of the market, only forced circumstances should be putting inventory on the market. But if the current data on upside down Alt A and prime loans being in default is at all accurate… that train should be arriving somewhere around late summer.

[peterb]

Yes, I think the official stats are hiding all kinds of things. In this market, one has to get out there and actually be in the areas, make offers, follow transactions, etc…to get at the truth. It’s clearly getting strong downward pressure, but the activity level is a bit counter-intuitive. And that always causes me to be suspicious. I suspect that a lot of the $300k and under volume is speculative. As in investors are buying and renting them out. If this is the case, it will dry up as they max-out their ability to get money. The unemployment rate is just too high for me to believe that most sales volume is organic in nature. I could be wrong, but I’ve done a lot of historical analysis on the CA RE market over the years.

What’s happening in the $450K and above market makes complete sense to me at this time, though. This inventory has yet to get big, nor has it seen an increase in sale volume. Until the default-train hits this price level of the market, only forced circumstances should be putting inventory on the market. But if the current data on upside down Alt A and prime loans being in default is at all accurate… that train should be arriving somewhere around late summer.

[peterb]

Yes, I think the official stats are hiding all kinds of things. In this market, one has to get out there and actually be in the areas, make offers, follow transactions, etc…to get at the truth. It’s clearly getting strong downward pressure, but the activity level is a bit counter-intuitive. And that always causes me to be suspicious. I suspect that a lot of the $300k and under volume is speculative. As in investors are buying and renting them out. If this is the case, it will dry up as they max-out their ability to get money. The unemployment rate is just too high for me to believe that most sales volume is organic in nature. I could be wrong, but I’ve done a lot of historical analysis on the CA RE market over the years.

What’s happening in the $450K and above market makes complete sense to me at this time, though. This inventory has yet to get big, nor has it seen an increase in sale volume. Until the default-train hits this price level of the market, only forced circumstances should be putting inventory on the market. But if the current data on upside down Alt A and prime loans being in default is at all accurate… that train should be arriving somewhere around late summer.

[SD Realtor]

Peter I agree that later in the summer will be an interesting barometer to see what is going on.

Russell –

Your the expert man! Go get em tiger!

[SD Realtor]

Peter I agree that later in the summer will be an interesting barometer to see what is going on.

Russell –

Your the expert man! Go get em tiger!

[SD Realtor]

Peter I agree that later in the summer will be an interesting barometer to see what is going on.

Russell –

Your the expert man! Go get em tiger!

[SD Realtor]

Peter I agree that later in the summer will be an interesting barometer to see what is going on.

Russell –

Your the expert man! Go get em tiger!

[Author]

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