Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan

[faterikcartman]

We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.

[sobmaz]

I would like to point out that falling realestate values do not mean lower property tax revenue for our County.

Two similar houses….

One house sold in 2006 for 700K and is producing 8K a year in taxes, but then sold in 2009 for 450K and is now only producing 5K in taxes, a 3K drop.

The second house was last sold in 1977 and is producing 700.00 a year in taxes but then is sold in 2009 for 450K so is now producing 5k a year in taxes. A net gain of 4300.

Between the two houses the country has gained revenue even though prices have “crashed”.

Don’t take my word for it. Despite the “crash” in real estate, property tax revenue is actually increasing each year, just at a much much slower rate than it use to.

And, don’t forget, they can raise the rates on everyone the base amount allowed by law, each and every year.

Also commercial property when sold in a way that generates a new appraisal can be a big wind fall for the country also. Most commercial property has been protected from reappraisals when there is a change in ownership because of the many loop holes that were written into prop 13 (those in the know, know that Prop 13 was just a way to keep taxes low on commercial property and effectively shift the tax burden from business to the FUTURE homeowner, but was sold as a way to “keep Granny in her home”), but when it does happen it is significant.

[sobmaz]

I would like to point out that falling realestate values do not mean lower property tax revenue for our County.

Two similar houses….

One house sold in 2006 for 700K and is producing 8K a year in taxes, but then sold in 2009 for 450K and is now only producing 5K in taxes, a 3K drop.

The second house was last sold in 1977 and is producing 700.00 a year in taxes but then is sold in 2009 for 450K so is now producing 5k a year in taxes. A net gain of 4300.

Between the two houses the country has gained revenue even though prices have “crashed”.

Don’t take my word for it. Despite the “crash” in real estate, property tax revenue is actually increasing each year, just at a much much slower rate than it use to.

And, don’t forget, they can raise the rates on everyone the base amount allowed by law, each and every year.

Also commercial property when sold in a way that generates a new appraisal can be a big wind fall for the country also. Most commercial property has been protected from reappraisals when there is a change in ownership because of the many loop holes that were written into prop 13 (those in the know, know that Prop 13 was just a way to keep taxes low on commercial property and effectively shift the tax burden from business to the FUTURE homeowner, but was sold as a way to “keep Granny in her home”), but when it does happen it is significant.

[sobmaz]

I would like to point out that falling realestate values do not mean lower property tax revenue for our County.

Two similar houses….

One house sold in 2006 for 700K and is producing 8K a year in taxes, but then sold in 2009 for 450K and is now only producing 5K in taxes, a 3K drop.

The second house was last sold in 1977 and is producing 700.00 a year in taxes but then is sold in 2009 for 450K so is now producing 5k a year in taxes. A net gain of 4300.

Between the two houses the country has gained revenue even though prices have “crashed”.

Don’t take my word for it. Despite the “crash” in real estate, property tax revenue is actually increasing each year, just at a much much slower rate than it use to.

And, don’t forget, they can raise the rates on everyone the base amount allowed by law, each and every year.

Also commercial property when sold in a way that generates a new appraisal can be a big wind fall for the country also. Most commercial property has been protected from reappraisals when there is a change in ownership because of the many loop holes that were written into prop 13 (those in the know, know that Prop 13 was just a way to keep taxes low on commercial property and effectively shift the tax burden from business to the FUTURE homeowner, but was sold as a way to “keep Granny in her home”), but when it does happen it is significant.

[sobmaz]

I would like to point out that falling realestate values do not mean lower property tax revenue for our County.

Two similar houses….

One house sold in 2006 for 700K and is producing 8K a year in taxes, but then sold in 2009 for 450K and is now only producing 5K in taxes, a 3K drop.

The second house was last sold in 1977 and is producing 700.00 a year in taxes but then is sold in 2009 for 450K so is now producing 5k a year in taxes. A net gain of 4300.

Between the two houses the country has gained revenue even though prices have “crashed”.

Don’t take my word for it. Despite the “crash” in real estate, property tax revenue is actually increasing each year, just at a much much slower rate than it use to.

And, don’t forget, they can raise the rates on everyone the base amount allowed by law, each and every year.

Also commercial property when sold in a way that generates a new appraisal can be a big wind fall for the country also. Most commercial property has been protected from reappraisals when there is a change in ownership because of the many loop holes that were written into prop 13 (those in the know, know that Prop 13 was just a way to keep taxes low on commercial property and effectively shift the tax burden from business to the FUTURE homeowner, but was sold as a way to “keep Granny in her home”), but when it does happen it is significant.

[sobmaz]

I would like to point out that falling realestate values do not mean lower property tax revenue for our County.

Two similar houses….

One house sold in 2006 for 700K and is producing 8K a year in taxes, but then sold in 2009 for 450K and is now only producing 5K in taxes, a 3K drop.

The second house was last sold in 1977 and is producing 700.00 a year in taxes but then is sold in 2009 for 450K so is now producing 5k a year in taxes. A net gain of 4300.

Between the two houses the country has gained revenue even though prices have “crashed”.

Don’t take my word for it. Despite the “crash” in real estate, property tax revenue is actually increasing each year, just at a much much slower rate than it use to.

And, don’t forget, they can raise the rates on everyone the base amount allowed by law, each and every year.

Also commercial property when sold in a way that generates a new appraisal can be a big wind fall for the country also. Most commercial property has been protected from reappraisals when there is a change in ownership because of the many loop holes that were written into prop 13 (those in the know, know that Prop 13 was just a way to keep taxes low on commercial property and effectively shift the tax burden from business to the FUTURE homeowner, but was sold as a way to “keep Granny in her home”), but when it does happen it is significant.

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.[/quote]

You’ll get no disagreement from me.

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.[/quote]

You’ll get no disagreement from me.

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.[/quote]

You’ll get no disagreement from me.

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.[/quote]

You’ll get no disagreement from me.

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.[/quote]

You’ll get no disagreement from me.

[briansd1]

Population trends will be interesting to watch in the next few decades.

Another possible factor in the drop: a decline in immigration to the United States.

The downward trend invites worrisome comparisons to Japan and its lost decade of choked growth in the 1990s and very low birth rates. Births in Japan fell 2% in 2009 after a slight rise in 2008, its government has said.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dcnow/2010/08/us-birth-rate-drops-again-economic-recession-cited-as-likely-reason-for-trend.html

[briansd1]

Population trends will be interesting to watch in the next few decades.

Another possible factor in the drop: a decline in immigration to the United States.

The downward trend invites worrisome comparisons to Japan and its lost decade of choked growth in the 1990s and very low birth rates. Births in Japan fell 2% in 2009 after a slight rise in 2008, its government has said.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dcnow/2010/08/us-birth-rate-drops-again-economic-recession-cited-as-likely-reason-for-trend.html

[briansd1]

Population trends will be interesting to watch in the next few decades.

Another possible factor in the drop: a decline in immigration to the United States.

The downward trend invites worrisome comparisons to Japan and its lost decade of choked growth in the 1990s and very low birth rates. Births in Japan fell 2% in 2009 after a slight rise in 2008, its government has said.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dcnow/2010/08/us-birth-rate-drops-again-economic-recession-cited-as-likely-reason-for-trend.html

[briansd1]

Population trends will be interesting to watch in the next few decades.

Another possible factor in the drop: a decline in immigration to the United States.

The downward trend invites worrisome comparisons to Japan and its lost decade of choked growth in the 1990s and very low birth rates. Births in Japan fell 2% in 2009 after a slight rise in 2008, its government has said.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dcnow/2010/08/us-birth-rate-drops-again-economic-recession-cited-as-likely-reason-for-trend.html

[Author]

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