Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan

[davelj]

[quote=carlsbadworker]Yen is trading at 15-year high recently. I heard the theory was:
1. Since the rest of the world is becoming Japan, there is no reason to avoid Japanese Yen and its associated assets.
2. Chinese government is diversifying its dollar holding into Yen holding, which may explain why FED has to start resorting printing machine to hold down the treasury yield.[/quote]

Speaking of the Chinese diversifying its dollar holdings:

From Naked Capitalism… “Auerback: News Flash– China Reduces US Treasury Holdings, World Does Not Come To an End”

Auerback: News Flash– China Reduces US Treasury Holdings, World Does Not Come To an End

[zk]

[quote=briansd1]It seems pretty clear to me that population growth is the best way out of our economic malaise.

But some economists think there is a very important difference between Japan and the United States that can’t be overlooked. And it could keep the U.S. from plunging into a long-term deflationary spiral. Demographics.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/18/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

[/quote]

From the money article:

“According to research from Brockhouse Cooper, a brokerage firm based in Montreal, the percentage of people aged 65 or older nearly doubled in Japan between 1990 and 2008. Meanwhile, that percentage has stayed roughly the same in the U.S.

So even though there are a lot more people in the U.S. that are retiring as the Baby Boomer generation gets older, total population growth is rising due to high fertility rates and increased immigration. That’s key since younger consumers tend to spend more.”

First of all, he’s looking at the past as far as U.S. demographics. As we all know, the boomers are aging, and this will increase the numbers of older Americans.

Second, he’s counting on the increase in the population of young people from increased fertility and from immigration to help pay for the aging boomers. “That’s key, since younger consumers tend to spend more.” Yeah, maybe they do in general. But probably not the younger consumers from the demographics he’s talking about. Carmel Valley’s Chinese immigrants notwithstanding, most immigrants are poor for at least a generation when they get here. And most of the increased fertility rates are from lower-income Americans. Neither of those groups are going to pay for the boomers’ entitlements.

Not that I’m in the deflation camp. But that article seemed to have some pretty weak arguments.

[zk]

[quote=briansd1]It seems pretty clear to me that population growth is the best way out of our economic malaise.

But some economists think there is a very important difference between Japan and the United States that can’t be overlooked. And it could keep the U.S. from plunging into a long-term deflationary spiral. Demographics.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/18/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

[/quote]

From the money article:

“According to research from Brockhouse Cooper, a brokerage firm based in Montreal, the percentage of people aged 65 or older nearly doubled in Japan between 1990 and 2008. Meanwhile, that percentage has stayed roughly the same in the U.S.

So even though there are a lot more people in the U.S. that are retiring as the Baby Boomer generation gets older, total population growth is rising due to high fertility rates and increased immigration. That’s key since younger consumers tend to spend more.”

First of all, he’s looking at the past as far as U.S. demographics. As we all know, the boomers are aging, and this will increase the numbers of older Americans.

Second, he’s counting on the increase in the population of young people from increased fertility and from immigration to help pay for the aging boomers. “That’s key, since younger consumers tend to spend more.” Yeah, maybe they do in general. But probably not the younger consumers from the demographics he’s talking about. Carmel Valley’s Chinese immigrants notwithstanding, most immigrants are poor for at least a generation when they get here. And most of the increased fertility rates are from lower-income Americans. Neither of those groups are going to pay for the boomers’ entitlements.

Not that I’m in the deflation camp. But that article seemed to have some pretty weak arguments.

[zk]

[quote=briansd1]It seems pretty clear to me that population growth is the best way out of our economic malaise.

But some economists think there is a very important difference between Japan and the United States that can’t be overlooked. And it could keep the U.S. from plunging into a long-term deflationary spiral. Demographics.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/18/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

[/quote]

From the money article:

“According to research from Brockhouse Cooper, a brokerage firm based in Montreal, the percentage of people aged 65 or older nearly doubled in Japan between 1990 and 2008. Meanwhile, that percentage has stayed roughly the same in the U.S.

So even though there are a lot more people in the U.S. that are retiring as the Baby Boomer generation gets older, total population growth is rising due to high fertility rates and increased immigration. That’s key since younger consumers tend to spend more.”

First of all, he’s looking at the past as far as U.S. demographics. As we all know, the boomers are aging, and this will increase the numbers of older Americans.

Second, he’s counting on the increase in the population of young people from increased fertility and from immigration to help pay for the aging boomers. “That’s key, since younger consumers tend to spend more.” Yeah, maybe they do in general. But probably not the younger consumers from the demographics he’s talking about. Carmel Valley’s Chinese immigrants notwithstanding, most immigrants are poor for at least a generation when they get here. And most of the increased fertility rates are from lower-income Americans. Neither of those groups are going to pay for the boomers’ entitlements.

Not that I’m in the deflation camp. But that article seemed to have some pretty weak arguments.

[zk]

[quote=briansd1]It seems pretty clear to me that population growth is the best way out of our economic malaise.

But some economists think there is a very important difference between Japan and the United States that can’t be overlooked. And it could keep the U.S. from plunging into a long-term deflationary spiral. Demographics.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/18/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

[/quote]

From the money article:

“According to research from Brockhouse Cooper, a brokerage firm based in Montreal, the percentage of people aged 65 or older nearly doubled in Japan between 1990 and 2008. Meanwhile, that percentage has stayed roughly the same in the U.S.

So even though there are a lot more people in the U.S. that are retiring as the Baby Boomer generation gets older, total population growth is rising due to high fertility rates and increased immigration. That’s key since younger consumers tend to spend more.”

First of all, he’s looking at the past as far as U.S. demographics. As we all know, the boomers are aging, and this will increase the numbers of older Americans.

Second, he’s counting on the increase in the population of young people from increased fertility and from immigration to help pay for the aging boomers. “That’s key, since younger consumers tend to spend more.” Yeah, maybe they do in general. But probably not the younger consumers from the demographics he’s talking about. Carmel Valley’s Chinese immigrants notwithstanding, most immigrants are poor for at least a generation when they get here. And most of the increased fertility rates are from lower-income Americans. Neither of those groups are going to pay for the boomers’ entitlements.

Not that I’m in the deflation camp. But that article seemed to have some pretty weak arguments.

[zk]

[quote=briansd1]It seems pretty clear to me that population growth is the best way out of our economic malaise.

But some economists think there is a very important difference between Japan and the United States that can’t be overlooked. And it could keep the U.S. from plunging into a long-term deflationary spiral. Demographics.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/18/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

[/quote]

From the money article:

“According to research from Brockhouse Cooper, a brokerage firm based in Montreal, the percentage of people aged 65 or older nearly doubled in Japan between 1990 and 2008. Meanwhile, that percentage has stayed roughly the same in the U.S.

So even though there are a lot more people in the U.S. that are retiring as the Baby Boomer generation gets older, total population growth is rising due to high fertility rates and increased immigration. That’s key since younger consumers tend to spend more.”

First of all, he’s looking at the past as far as U.S. demographics. As we all know, the boomers are aging, and this will increase the numbers of older Americans.

Second, he’s counting on the increase in the population of young people from increased fertility and from immigration to help pay for the aging boomers. “That’s key, since younger consumers tend to spend more.” Yeah, maybe they do in general. But probably not the younger consumers from the demographics he’s talking about. Carmel Valley’s Chinese immigrants notwithstanding, most immigrants are poor for at least a generation when they get here. And most of the increased fertility rates are from lower-income Americans. Neither of those groups are going to pay for the boomers’ entitlements.

Not that I’m in the deflation camp. But that article seemed to have some pretty weak arguments.

[briansd1]

Interesting article on Japan.

I still believe that without strong population growth, we’ll suffer a similar fate as baby boomers, who are now getting past their prime earning and spending years, cut back.

Pressed to Act, Bank of Japan Sees Few Ways to Lift Demand

Last week, the deflation doldrums that have becalmed the Japanese economy for much of the past decade helped knock Japan from its long-held ranking as the second-largest economy. (China edged up to No. 2, behind the United States.)

[briansd1]

Interesting article on Japan.

I still believe that without strong population growth, we’ll suffer a similar fate as baby boomers, who are now getting past their prime earning and spending years, cut back.

Pressed to Act, Bank of Japan Sees Few Ways to Lift Demand

Last week, the deflation doldrums that have becalmed the Japanese economy for much of the past decade helped knock Japan from its long-held ranking as the second-largest economy. (China edged up to No. 2, behind the United States.)

[briansd1]

Interesting article on Japan.

I still believe that without strong population growth, we’ll suffer a similar fate as baby boomers, who are now getting past their prime earning and spending years, cut back.

Pressed to Act, Bank of Japan Sees Few Ways to Lift Demand

Last week, the deflation doldrums that have becalmed the Japanese economy for much of the past decade helped knock Japan from its long-held ranking as the second-largest economy. (China edged up to No. 2, behind the United States.)

[briansd1]

Interesting article on Japan.

I still believe that without strong population growth, we’ll suffer a similar fate as baby boomers, who are now getting past their prime earning and spending years, cut back.

Pressed to Act, Bank of Japan Sees Few Ways to Lift Demand

Last week, the deflation doldrums that have becalmed the Japanese economy for much of the past decade helped knock Japan from its long-held ranking as the second-largest economy. (China edged up to No. 2, behind the United States.)

[briansd1]

Interesting article on Japan.

I still believe that without strong population growth, we’ll suffer a similar fate as baby boomers, who are now getting past their prime earning and spending years, cut back.

Pressed to Act, Bank of Japan Sees Few Ways to Lift Demand

Last week, the deflation doldrums that have becalmed the Japanese economy for much of the past decade helped knock Japan from its long-held ranking as the second-largest economy. (China edged up to No. 2, behind the United States.)

[faterikcartman]

We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.

[faterikcartman]

We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.

[faterikcartman]

We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.

[faterikcartman]

We are growing our population with immigrants. This won’t work because to work they would have to contribute as much to the economy, consumer spending, and taxes, as the native population. This is not the case, however, as we are expanding with zero to low skill third worlders who don’t speak English and are a net drain on the system, not a contribution.

My wife, my in-laws, and even my own mother are naturalized citizens, however. But, contrary to the view of mainstream politics and media, they have no desire to turn the US into the places they left. Moreover, they have contributed to the system, not taxed it further.

Of course reading my first paragraph only, many, if not most, people will just cry racism and that’s as far as we’ll get in the conversation. Whether or not what I said is true will never be discussed, or will be quickly dismissed based on false facts or false assumptions.

[Author]

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