Shadow Tsunami =Shadow Tsunami of renters?

[outtamojo]

It seems like some of you believe we have a large pool of willing and able buyers out there to smooth out the wave of newly listed homes for sale? I would’ve never guessed this from some.True there is an equilibrium here somewhere but it is a dynamic one. Ejected homeowner has to find rental/housing right away,home foreclosure/mls listing/home sold/escrow closed can take many months. As for empty homes, I do not know if proposed Tsunami wave has more empty homes than occupied.

[outtamojo]

[quote=Arraya]Your thinking is backwards. Think in terms of total available housing. If you release more properties to the RE market it will push home prices down and current renters to purchase. Then you have the people that are currently living for free that would have to either find a new rental or create denser living arrangements. The net effect would be downward pressure on rentals and home prices due to the employment picture as less people have employment and would have to “shack up” with somebody.[/quote]

So you believe there are going to be enough willing and able buyers out there despite your views on the coming employment picture?

(“current renters to purchase”)

[outtamojo]

[quote=Arraya]Your thinking is backwards. Think in terms of total available housing. If you release more properties to the RE market it will push home prices down and current renters to purchase. Then you have the people that are currently living for free that would have to either find a new rental or create denser living arrangements. The net effect would be downward pressure on rentals and home prices due to the employment picture as less people have employment and would have to “shack up” with somebody.[/quote]

So you believe there are going to be enough willing and able buyers out there despite your views on the coming employment picture?

(“current renters to purchase”)

[outtamojo]

[quote=Arraya]Your thinking is backwards. Think in terms of total available housing. If you release more properties to the RE market it will push home prices down and current renters to purchase. Then you have the people that are currently living for free that would have to either find a new rental or create denser living arrangements. The net effect would be downward pressure on rentals and home prices due to the employment picture as less people have employment and would have to “shack up” with somebody.[/quote]

So you believe there are going to be enough willing and able buyers out there despite your views on the coming employment picture?

(“current renters to purchase”)

[outtamojo]

[quote=Arraya]Your thinking is backwards. Think in terms of total available housing. If you release more properties to the RE market it will push home prices down and current renters to purchase. Then you have the people that are currently living for free that would have to either find a new rental or create denser living arrangements. The net effect would be downward pressure on rentals and home prices due to the employment picture as less people have employment and would have to “shack up” with somebody.[/quote]

So you believe there are going to be enough willing and able buyers out there despite your views on the coming employment picture?

(“current renters to purchase”)

[outtamojo]

[quote=Arraya]Your thinking is backwards. Think in terms of total available housing. If you release more properties to the RE market it will push home prices down and current renters to purchase. Then you have the people that are currently living for free that would have to either find a new rental or create denser living arrangements. The net effect would be downward pressure on rentals and home prices due to the employment picture as less people have employment and would have to “shack up” with somebody.[/quote]

So you believe there are going to be enough willing and able buyers out there despite your views on the coming employment picture?

(“current renters to purchase”)

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think that if and when the US economy ever does start to add decent Jobs in a meaningful way, this thing will snowball, but on the opposite side if we double dip into another recession then that will snowball in the opposite direction. The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.

But that is just my opinion

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think that if and when the US economy ever does start to add decent Jobs in a meaningful way, this thing will snowball, but on the opposite side if we double dip into another recession then that will snowball in the opposite direction. The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.

But that is just my opinion

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think that if and when the US economy ever does start to add decent Jobs in a meaningful way, this thing will snowball, but on the opposite side if we double dip into another recession then that will snowball in the opposite direction. The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.

But that is just my opinion

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think that if and when the US economy ever does start to add decent Jobs in a meaningful way, this thing will snowball, but on the opposite side if we double dip into another recession then that will snowball in the opposite direction. The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.

But that is just my opinion

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think that if and when the US economy ever does start to add decent Jobs in a meaningful way, this thing will snowball, but on the opposite side if we double dip into another recession then that will snowball in the opposite direction. The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.

But that is just my opinion

[urbanrealtor]

Eventually all those housing units will sell but in the meantime, anything repo’d will be empty for a while. That will decrease the gross effective supply from where it might otherwise have been.
Whether that translates into effective demand is another matter. If the economy is bad enough, habitation density might increase rapidly (like during the depression). If this were followed by an expansion, there would then be a demand crisis (this is why many houses in North Park have apartments added in the back yard in the mid to late 1940’s).

It really comes down to an issue of the tension between the timing of the housing market and the timing of the broader economy.

The irony of course is that housing has gotten so bloated in the last 50 years that it is now a cause and an effect. (eg: housing drops because of job loss which lowers broader net worth which slows business which causes job losses)
Most recent history (like the last century) does not look quite this circular. And it really is something that could lead to much broader and deeper poverty and political instability (which would also slow the economy). Fun times.

[urbanrealtor]

Eventually all those housing units will sell but in the meantime, anything repo’d will be empty for a while. That will decrease the gross effective supply from where it might otherwise have been.
Whether that translates into effective demand is another matter. If the economy is bad enough, habitation density might increase rapidly (like during the depression). If this were followed by an expansion, there would then be a demand crisis (this is why many houses in North Park have apartments added in the back yard in the mid to late 1940’s).

It really comes down to an issue of the tension between the timing of the housing market and the timing of the broader economy.

The irony of course is that housing has gotten so bloated in the last 50 years that it is now a cause and an effect. (eg: housing drops because of job loss which lowers broader net worth which slows business which causes job losses)
Most recent history (like the last century) does not look quite this circular. And it really is something that could lead to much broader and deeper poverty and political instability (which would also slow the economy). Fun times.

[urbanrealtor]

Eventually all those housing units will sell but in the meantime, anything repo’d will be empty for a while. That will decrease the gross effective supply from where it might otherwise have been.
Whether that translates into effective demand is another matter. If the economy is bad enough, habitation density might increase rapidly (like during the depression). If this were followed by an expansion, there would then be a demand crisis (this is why many houses in North Park have apartments added in the back yard in the mid to late 1940’s).

It really comes down to an issue of the tension between the timing of the housing market and the timing of the broader economy.

The irony of course is that housing has gotten so bloated in the last 50 years that it is now a cause and an effect. (eg: housing drops because of job loss which lowers broader net worth which slows business which causes job losses)
Most recent history (like the last century) does not look quite this circular. And it really is something that could lead to much broader and deeper poverty and political instability (which would also slow the economy). Fun times.

[urbanrealtor]

Eventually all those housing units will sell but in the meantime, anything repo’d will be empty for a while. That will decrease the gross effective supply from where it might otherwise have been.
Whether that translates into effective demand is another matter. If the economy is bad enough, habitation density might increase rapidly (like during the depression). If this were followed by an expansion, there would then be a demand crisis (this is why many houses in North Park have apartments added in the back yard in the mid to late 1940’s).

It really comes down to an issue of the tension between the timing of the housing market and the timing of the broader economy.

The irony of course is that housing has gotten so bloated in the last 50 years that it is now a cause and an effect. (eg: housing drops because of job loss which lowers broader net worth which slows business which causes job losses)
Most recent history (like the last century) does not look quite this circular. And it really is something that could lead to much broader and deeper poverty and political instability (which would also slow the economy). Fun times.

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