Shadow Inventory – The Flood that May Never Come

[jpinpb]

Funny you ask b/c I was sifting through Hillcrest posts on SDL trying to find a particular listing I marked and I am surprised to see many places that were attempting to sell that are just gone, fell off the books, not listed, not pending. Some had NODs. These were old posts from last year.

It’s so difficult to say. As I said in the previous post, there were some that had NODs from last year and I just assumed they got redeemed b/c there was no attempt to sell. And now they have a new NOD w/a foreclosure date.

I didn’t keep track of the actual number, so it would be a guess and I wouldn’t venture to post on a blog that deals w/numbers and data and facts.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]
I didn’t keep track of the actual number, so it would be a guess and I wouldn’t venture to post on a blog that deals w/numbers and data and facts.[/quote]

There’s no shame in guesstimating as long as you qualify it as such. That’s half of what this blog is comprised of anyway – guesstimates (although a lot of folks try to convince you that their guesstimates are future facts).

For example, “Based on a handful of projects with which I’m familiar – anecdotal to be sure – I’d guesstimate that there’s one non-MLS foreclosure for every listed foreclosure out there.”

Qualifiers abound. No harm done.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]
I didn’t keep track of the actual number, so it would be a guess and I wouldn’t venture to post on a blog that deals w/numbers and data and facts.[/quote]

There’s no shame in guesstimating as long as you qualify it as such. That’s half of what this blog is comprised of anyway – guesstimates (although a lot of folks try to convince you that their guesstimates are future facts).

For example, “Based on a handful of projects with which I’m familiar – anecdotal to be sure – I’d guesstimate that there’s one non-MLS foreclosure for every listed foreclosure out there.”

Qualifiers abound. No harm done.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]
I didn’t keep track of the actual number, so it would be a guess and I wouldn’t venture to post on a blog that deals w/numbers and data and facts.[/quote]

There’s no shame in guesstimating as long as you qualify it as such. That’s half of what this blog is comprised of anyway – guesstimates (although a lot of folks try to convince you that their guesstimates are future facts).

For example, “Based on a handful of projects with which I’m familiar – anecdotal to be sure – I’d guesstimate that there’s one non-MLS foreclosure for every listed foreclosure out there.”

Qualifiers abound. No harm done.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]
I didn’t keep track of the actual number, so it would be a guess and I wouldn’t venture to post on a blog that deals w/numbers and data and facts.[/quote]

There’s no shame in guesstimating as long as you qualify it as such. That’s half of what this blog is comprised of anyway – guesstimates (although a lot of folks try to convince you that their guesstimates are future facts).

For example, “Based on a handful of projects with which I’m familiar – anecdotal to be sure – I’d guesstimate that there’s one non-MLS foreclosure for every listed foreclosure out there.”

Qualifiers abound. No harm done.

[davelj]

[quote=jpinpb]
I didn’t keep track of the actual number, so it would be a guess and I wouldn’t venture to post on a blog that deals w/numbers and data and facts.[/quote]

There’s no shame in guesstimating as long as you qualify it as such. That’s half of what this blog is comprised of anyway – guesstimates (although a lot of folks try to convince you that their guesstimates are future facts).

For example, “Based on a handful of projects with which I’m familiar – anecdotal to be sure – I’d guesstimate that there’s one non-MLS foreclosure for every listed foreclosure out there.”

Qualifiers abound. No harm done.

[PadreBrian]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=PadreBrian]Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market. [/quote]

These are a few places w/NODs that are not listed, have not been listed, not attempting short sales. They are recent listings (this year).

14014 Calle Cardenas
10545 Abalone Landing Terrace
4686 Wispering Woods Ct
6379 Oleander Way
13376 Kibbings Rd
3912 Lago Di Grata Cir
4511 Saluto Ct
3633 Ruette De Ville
13740 Rosecroft Way
3863 Creststone Pl
12728 Via Nieve
12934 Harwick Ln
5160 White Emerald Dr
13362 Winstanley Way
13562 Jadestone Way
13781 Rosecroft Way
6616 Chase Way

TG – I can get info on properties for loans that have defaults as far as the bank and loan info, price, etc. But I do not have info on loans in general, for example, if someone bought a house and later takes a HELOC, unless they have a NOD, I don’t have info on their loan.

I also don’t have info on if someone has a NOD and gets it re-worked. I can try to contact the bank. Many times the foreclosure dates get postponed. I’ve seen some properties from last year get redeemed that have new NODs now.

We discussed this on another thread. It would be nice if it were online or more transparent or more easily accessible. I’m not sure how to get loan mod info. I imagine county. Perhaps title/realtor? [/quote]

Okay, I just did a lil research for the board.
I picked a place from the middle of the list.
3863 Creststone Pl

I drove by the place an hour ago, I live nearby.
The place is quite lived in.

Looking at the taxes they are all paid up:

I picked a place from the middle of the list.
304-332-02-24 L****E SHARON W REVOCABLE 1998 TRUST 08-19-98 1,994.14 12/10/2008 PAID ON 12/05 1,994.14 4/10/2009 PAID ON 04/07 3,988.28 No Payment Due

TOTAL L&I = 326942 Which would mean these are the same people who bought the place when it was new.

Looks like NOD wasn’t a real NOD. Loan was reworked or whatever.

I’ll look at a few more, but this “shadow inventory” is more like “incompetent bank inventory”.

[PadreBrian]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=PadreBrian]Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market. [/quote]

These are a few places w/NODs that are not listed, have not been listed, not attempting short sales. They are recent listings (this year).

14014 Calle Cardenas
10545 Abalone Landing Terrace
4686 Wispering Woods Ct
6379 Oleander Way
13376 Kibbings Rd
3912 Lago Di Grata Cir
4511 Saluto Ct
3633 Ruette De Ville
13740 Rosecroft Way
3863 Creststone Pl
12728 Via Nieve
12934 Harwick Ln
5160 White Emerald Dr
13362 Winstanley Way
13562 Jadestone Way
13781 Rosecroft Way
6616 Chase Way

TG – I can get info on properties for loans that have defaults as far as the bank and loan info, price, etc. But I do not have info on loans in general, for example, if someone bought a house and later takes a HELOC, unless they have a NOD, I don’t have info on their loan.

I also don’t have info on if someone has a NOD and gets it re-worked. I can try to contact the bank. Many times the foreclosure dates get postponed. I’ve seen some properties from last year get redeemed that have new NODs now.

We discussed this on another thread. It would be nice if it were online or more transparent or more easily accessible. I’m not sure how to get loan mod info. I imagine county. Perhaps title/realtor? [/quote]

Okay, I just did a lil research for the board.
I picked a place from the middle of the list.
3863 Creststone Pl

I drove by the place an hour ago, I live nearby.
The place is quite lived in.

Looking at the taxes they are all paid up:

I picked a place from the middle of the list.
304-332-02-24 L****E SHARON W REVOCABLE 1998 TRUST 08-19-98 1,994.14 12/10/2008 PAID ON 12/05 1,994.14 4/10/2009 PAID ON 04/07 3,988.28 No Payment Due

TOTAL L&I = 326942 Which would mean these are the same people who bought the place when it was new.

Looks like NOD wasn’t a real NOD. Loan was reworked or whatever.

I’ll look at a few more, but this “shadow inventory” is more like “incompetent bank inventory”.

[PadreBrian]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=PadreBrian]Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market. [/quote]

These are a few places w/NODs that are not listed, have not been listed, not attempting short sales. They are recent listings (this year).

14014 Calle Cardenas
10545 Abalone Landing Terrace
4686 Wispering Woods Ct
6379 Oleander Way
13376 Kibbings Rd
3912 Lago Di Grata Cir
4511 Saluto Ct
3633 Ruette De Ville
13740 Rosecroft Way
3863 Creststone Pl
12728 Via Nieve
12934 Harwick Ln
5160 White Emerald Dr
13362 Winstanley Way
13562 Jadestone Way
13781 Rosecroft Way
6616 Chase Way

TG – I can get info on properties for loans that have defaults as far as the bank and loan info, price, etc. But I do not have info on loans in general, for example, if someone bought a house and later takes a HELOC, unless they have a NOD, I don’t have info on their loan.

I also don’t have info on if someone has a NOD and gets it re-worked. I can try to contact the bank. Many times the foreclosure dates get postponed. I’ve seen some properties from last year get redeemed that have new NODs now.

We discussed this on another thread. It would be nice if it were online or more transparent or more easily accessible. I’m not sure how to get loan mod info. I imagine county. Perhaps title/realtor? [/quote]

Okay, I just did a lil research for the board.
I picked a place from the middle of the list.
3863 Creststone Pl

I drove by the place an hour ago, I live nearby.
The place is quite lived in.

Looking at the taxes they are all paid up:

I picked a place from the middle of the list.
304-332-02-24 L****E SHARON W REVOCABLE 1998 TRUST 08-19-98 1,994.14 12/10/2008 PAID ON 12/05 1,994.14 4/10/2009 PAID ON 04/07 3,988.28 No Payment Due

TOTAL L&I = 326942 Which would mean these are the same people who bought the place when it was new.

Looks like NOD wasn’t a real NOD. Loan was reworked or whatever.

I’ll look at a few more, but this “shadow inventory” is more like “incompetent bank inventory”.

[PadreBrian]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=PadreBrian]Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market. [/quote]

These are a few places w/NODs that are not listed, have not been listed, not attempting short sales. They are recent listings (this year).

14014 Calle Cardenas
10545 Abalone Landing Terrace
4686 Wispering Woods Ct
6379 Oleander Way
13376 Kibbings Rd
3912 Lago Di Grata Cir
4511 Saluto Ct
3633 Ruette De Ville
13740 Rosecroft Way
3863 Creststone Pl
12728 Via Nieve
12934 Harwick Ln
5160 White Emerald Dr
13362 Winstanley Way
13562 Jadestone Way
13781 Rosecroft Way
6616 Chase Way

TG – I can get info on properties for loans that have defaults as far as the bank and loan info, price, etc. But I do not have info on loans in general, for example, if someone bought a house and later takes a HELOC, unless they have a NOD, I don’t have info on their loan.

I also don’t have info on if someone has a NOD and gets it re-worked. I can try to contact the bank. Many times the foreclosure dates get postponed. I’ve seen some properties from last year get redeemed that have new NODs now.

We discussed this on another thread. It would be nice if it were online or more transparent or more easily accessible. I’m not sure how to get loan mod info. I imagine county. Perhaps title/realtor? [/quote]

Okay, I just did a lil research for the board.
I picked a place from the middle of the list.
3863 Creststone Pl

I drove by the place an hour ago, I live nearby.
The place is quite lived in.

Looking at the taxes they are all paid up:

I picked a place from the middle of the list.
304-332-02-24 L****E SHARON W REVOCABLE 1998 TRUST 08-19-98 1,994.14 12/10/2008 PAID ON 12/05 1,994.14 4/10/2009 PAID ON 04/07 3,988.28 No Payment Due

TOTAL L&I = 326942 Which would mean these are the same people who bought the place when it was new.

Looks like NOD wasn’t a real NOD. Loan was reworked or whatever.

I’ll look at a few more, but this “shadow inventory” is more like “incompetent bank inventory”.

[PadreBrian]

[quote=jpinpb][quote=PadreBrian]Give me an address or two…92130, please.

There’s really no argument here. Some banks are slow as rap, but they are either refinanced or come back on the market. [/quote]

These are a few places w/NODs that are not listed, have not been listed, not attempting short sales. They are recent listings (this year).

14014 Calle Cardenas
10545 Abalone Landing Terrace
4686 Wispering Woods Ct
6379 Oleander Way
13376 Kibbings Rd
3912 Lago Di Grata Cir
4511 Saluto Ct
3633 Ruette De Ville
13740 Rosecroft Way
3863 Creststone Pl
12728 Via Nieve
12934 Harwick Ln
5160 White Emerald Dr
13362 Winstanley Way
13562 Jadestone Way
13781 Rosecroft Way
6616 Chase Way

TG – I can get info on properties for loans that have defaults as far as the bank and loan info, price, etc. But I do not have info on loans in general, for example, if someone bought a house and later takes a HELOC, unless they have a NOD, I don’t have info on their loan.

I also don’t have info on if someone has a NOD and gets it re-worked. I can try to contact the bank. Many times the foreclosure dates get postponed. I’ve seen some properties from last year get redeemed that have new NODs now.

We discussed this on another thread. It would be nice if it were online or more transparent or more easily accessible. I’m not sure how to get loan mod info. I imagine county. Perhaps title/realtor? [/quote]

Okay, I just did a lil research for the board.
I picked a place from the middle of the list.
3863 Creststone Pl

I drove by the place an hour ago, I live nearby.
The place is quite lived in.

Looking at the taxes they are all paid up:

I picked a place from the middle of the list.
304-332-02-24 L****E SHARON W REVOCABLE 1998 TRUST 08-19-98 1,994.14 12/10/2008 PAID ON 12/05 1,994.14 4/10/2009 PAID ON 04/07 3,988.28 No Payment Due

TOTAL L&I = 326942 Which would mean these are the same people who bought the place when it was new.

Looks like NOD wasn’t a real NOD. Loan was reworked or whatever.

I’ll look at a few more, but this “shadow inventory” is more like “incompetent bank inventory”.

[mwtosd]

I posted this on SDL

Short Sales: Banks Blocking Way Out Of Foreclosure Crisis

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/270/postid/67300/view/topic/Default.aspx

Highlight from the article…

“Miller points his finger at securitization. Once the mortgages are bundled and sliced up into different pieces, known as tranches, the owners of the pieces get paid back according to a certain pecking order. Senior investors get paid back first and if there’s a loss, the most junior investors won’t get anything. It’s those investors who are blocking short sales.”

“The people with the least senior tranches have no reason to agree to the modification because they take a complete loss and the people in the most senior tranches don’t lose anything. So they’ve managed to structure their mortgages in a way that makes it almost impossible to modify or sell short,” said Miller.”

[mwtosd]

I posted this on SDL

Short Sales: Banks Blocking Way Out Of Foreclosure Crisis

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/270/postid/67300/view/topic/Default.aspx

Highlight from the article…

“Miller points his finger at securitization. Once the mortgages are bundled and sliced up into different pieces, known as tranches, the owners of the pieces get paid back according to a certain pecking order. Senior investors get paid back first and if there’s a loss, the most junior investors won’t get anything. It’s those investors who are blocking short sales.”

“The people with the least senior tranches have no reason to agree to the modification because they take a complete loss and the people in the most senior tranches don’t lose anything. So they’ve managed to structure their mortgages in a way that makes it almost impossible to modify or sell short,” said Miller.”

[mwtosd]

I posted this on SDL

Short Sales: Banks Blocking Way Out Of Foreclosure Crisis

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/270/postid/67300/view/topic/Default.aspx

Highlight from the article…

“Miller points his finger at securitization. Once the mortgages are bundled and sliced up into different pieces, known as tranches, the owners of the pieces get paid back according to a certain pecking order. Senior investors get paid back first and if there’s a loss, the most junior investors won’t get anything. It’s those investors who are blocking short sales.”

“The people with the least senior tranches have no reason to agree to the modification because they take a complete loss and the people in the most senior tranches don’t lose anything. So they’ve managed to structure their mortgages in a way that makes it almost impossible to modify or sell short,” said Miller.”

[mwtosd]

I posted this on SDL

Short Sales: Banks Blocking Way Out Of Foreclosure Crisis

http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/General/tabid/57/forumid/270/postid/67300/view/topic/Default.aspx

Highlight from the article…

“Miller points his finger at securitization. Once the mortgages are bundled and sliced up into different pieces, known as tranches, the owners of the pieces get paid back according to a certain pecking order. Senior investors get paid back first and if there’s a loss, the most junior investors won’t get anything. It’s those investors who are blocking short sales.”

“The people with the least senior tranches have no reason to agree to the modification because they take a complete loss and the people in the most senior tranches don’t lose anything. So they’ve managed to structure their mortgages in a way that makes it almost impossible to modify or sell short,” said Miller.”

[Author]

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