Sense of something wrong

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]a trick that is working.[/quote]

For how long do you think this consumer-fantasy will last? At some point, reality will set back in.

It’s not about psychology. It’s about a lack of money. Right now, so many people aren’t paying their debts, so they have money/credit to spend. How long do you think that will last? If it lasts for a long time, and if there are no negative consequences for the deadbeats, at some point, the few remaining responsible people will throw in the towel and default on their debts as well.

Over the past few years, the irresponsible have been bailed out at the expense of the responsible, and everybody knows it. On one hand, some complain about our deficits, but on the other, they complain if asset prices fall. They can’t seem to understand the correlation between the two. Those deficits are a direct result of our propping up the prices of worthless assets.[/quote]

The non-payers are diminishing, at least around here. People have money and things are starting to get better little by little. Did you see the article in the UT about unemployment rates in Sd County last week? While it was in double digits in east county and south county, it was around 5% in NC (both coastal and inland). You really have a very distorted view of reality. Do you really believe that there are only a few remaining responsibile people? please stay responsible. i’m looking forward to dinner;)

[permabear]

Local vs. state vs. national trends are hard to distinguish.

High-paid workers are doing ok. But there’s a chasm. Uneducated or “manual labor” or “admin” or “clerk” or “apprentice” or “assistant” or whatever you want to call them jobs are evaporating. Blame computers.

I don’t think this is a short-term trend. Like the auto industry, automation and computers and Google Docs and Docusign and Adobe and VMWare and Amazon Cloud and Redfin are going to permanently eliminate jobs. I ran into an ex-employee from an ex-company at Trader Joe’s the other day (an admin assistant) and she’s been out of work over 2 years. She was not that good – nice, a great person, but poor at her job. I doubt she will EVER get another job without significant restraining.

But:

All that said, it’s somewhat irrelevant to CAR’s point. The point was whether enough people would be left to buy real estate at current prices.

No.

Computers can’t buy real estate. And the remaining employed are not at 200% or 300% of previous salaries, which would enable them to buy the houses of those that are now making 0%.

I don’t claim to know the future, but the pool of available buyers seems to continue to shrink.

[permabear]

Local vs. state vs. national trends are hard to distinguish.

High-paid workers are doing ok. But there’s a chasm. Uneducated or “manual labor” or “admin” or “clerk” or “apprentice” or “assistant” or whatever you want to call them jobs are evaporating. Blame computers.

I don’t think this is a short-term trend. Like the auto industry, automation and computers and Google Docs and Docusign and Adobe and VMWare and Amazon Cloud and Redfin are going to permanently eliminate jobs. I ran into an ex-employee from an ex-company at Trader Joe’s the other day (an admin assistant) and she’s been out of work over 2 years. She was not that good – nice, a great person, but poor at her job. I doubt she will EVER get another job without significant restraining.

But:

All that said, it’s somewhat irrelevant to CAR’s point. The point was whether enough people would be left to buy real estate at current prices.

No.

Computers can’t buy real estate. And the remaining employed are not at 200% or 300% of previous salaries, which would enable them to buy the houses of those that are now making 0%.

I don’t claim to know the future, but the pool of available buyers seems to continue to shrink.

[permabear]

Local vs. state vs. national trends are hard to distinguish.

High-paid workers are doing ok. But there’s a chasm. Uneducated or “manual labor” or “admin” or “clerk” or “apprentice” or “assistant” or whatever you want to call them jobs are evaporating. Blame computers.

I don’t think this is a short-term trend. Like the auto industry, automation and computers and Google Docs and Docusign and Adobe and VMWare and Amazon Cloud and Redfin are going to permanently eliminate jobs. I ran into an ex-employee from an ex-company at Trader Joe’s the other day (an admin assistant) and she’s been out of work over 2 years. She was not that good – nice, a great person, but poor at her job. I doubt she will EVER get another job without significant restraining.

But:

All that said, it’s somewhat irrelevant to CAR’s point. The point was whether enough people would be left to buy real estate at current prices.

No.

Computers can’t buy real estate. And the remaining employed are not at 200% or 300% of previous salaries, which would enable them to buy the houses of those that are now making 0%.

I don’t claim to know the future, but the pool of available buyers seems to continue to shrink.

[permabear]

Local vs. state vs. national trends are hard to distinguish.

High-paid workers are doing ok. But there’s a chasm. Uneducated or “manual labor” or “admin” or “clerk” or “apprentice” or “assistant” or whatever you want to call them jobs are evaporating. Blame computers.

I don’t think this is a short-term trend. Like the auto industry, automation and computers and Google Docs and Docusign and Adobe and VMWare and Amazon Cloud and Redfin are going to permanently eliminate jobs. I ran into an ex-employee from an ex-company at Trader Joe’s the other day (an admin assistant) and she’s been out of work over 2 years. She was not that good – nice, a great person, but poor at her job. I doubt she will EVER get another job without significant restraining.

But:

All that said, it’s somewhat irrelevant to CAR’s point. The point was whether enough people would be left to buy real estate at current prices.

No.

Computers can’t buy real estate. And the remaining employed are not at 200% or 300% of previous salaries, which would enable them to buy the houses of those that are now making 0%.

I don’t claim to know the future, but the pool of available buyers seems to continue to shrink.

[permabear]

Local vs. state vs. national trends are hard to distinguish.

High-paid workers are doing ok. But there’s a chasm. Uneducated or “manual labor” or “admin” or “clerk” or “apprentice” or “assistant” or whatever you want to call them jobs are evaporating. Blame computers.

I don’t think this is a short-term trend. Like the auto industry, automation and computers and Google Docs and Docusign and Adobe and VMWare and Amazon Cloud and Redfin are going to permanently eliminate jobs. I ran into an ex-employee from an ex-company at Trader Joe’s the other day (an admin assistant) and she’s been out of work over 2 years. She was not that good – nice, a great person, but poor at her job. I doubt she will EVER get another job without significant restraining.

But:

All that said, it’s somewhat irrelevant to CAR’s point. The point was whether enough people would be left to buy real estate at current prices.

No.

Computers can’t buy real estate. And the remaining employed are not at 200% or 300% of previous salaries, which would enable them to buy the houses of those that are now making 0%.

I don’t claim to know the future, but the pool of available buyers seems to continue to shrink.

[SD Realtor]

I cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.

The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.

However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.

It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.

I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.

It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.

CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.

So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.

[SD Realtor]

I cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.

The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.

However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.

It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.

I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.

It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.

CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.

So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.

[SD Realtor]

I cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.

The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.

However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.

It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.

I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.

It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.

CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.

So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.

[SD Realtor]

I cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.

The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.

However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.

It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.

I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.

It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.

CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.

So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.

[SD Realtor]

I cannot agree that increased consumer spending is an indicator that the systemic problems are healed. The fundamental problems that plague our country and Europe are not going to go away simply because we greased the skids with trillions of dollars and have seen increased spending and such.

The fact is that there are many many many people who are flush with worthless dollars right now. My investment group has completely stopped flipping because of the swarms of people involved. Margins are miniscule and our goal was to be tactical and it worked out well. So yes these people are spending. So are the engineers working at Qualcomm and Broadcom, and the biotech and attornies and many others. Of course anyone employed by the govt is doing well also.

However looking at the fundamental issues I cannot share the same optimism that some have.I look at our employme nt numbers, I don’t share that optimism. I don’t even trust the numbers we are told. Nor do I seem to see a big burst of employment happening or about to happen. Basic things like food and energy costs are going up in price. Any parent will tell you that.

It is entirely feasible to me that housing prices in San Diego can and will remain high. That is the way it has been, and the the way it will always be. However as the dominoes fall in Europe I believe things will deteriorate. You cannot monetize debt. You cannot have have substantial portions of the GDP used to simply cover the interest on your debt. You cannot have housing deflation while the price of energy, commodities, and food and move steadily higher. Great I can get a nice flatscreen and a great cell phone plan for cheap but a gallon of milk and a carton of eggs and some butter costs 10 bucks today. Fantastic. You look at the current finances of California (16% of our national gdp) and New York and they are in shambles. Yet there is no plan in place to reform these states. They simply keep bumbling along and we all know an inevitable bailout of these and other states will be necessary.

I am not a fan of the current administration but I do agree that these problems we see have anything to do with either party.

It is a very simple fact that in order to deal with all of this we very much need to take some damn painful medicine at the state and federal level. Higher taxes and reduced spending HAVE to happen. Severe restriction of the money supply needs to happen. Higher rates are needed. Harsh stuff now but way way harsher stuff later. My big concern is that it will be later because no party will do what needs to be done, it is political suicide.

CAR you and I agree on what is happening and what has happened. While everyone says the fed and treasury NEEDED to do what they did or else all hell would have broken loose I don’t agree. I agree with you, some help was/is needed. However to see many institutions post record profits in 09 was absolutely laughable. Revelations now coming out that the fed greased many other industries, other banks and other countries is not really news to me. Just more of a sad confirmation of something some of us presumed.

So yes I agree about the sense that something is wrong. I don’t see this severe sky is falling disruption just yet. However I do think it is out there and becoming more probable as we continue to act like an ostrich and stick our heads in the sand.

[AK]

I’m not usually known for my optimism … but I have noticed a distinct lack of good s*** for sale on Craigslist these days. I consider this a positive sign for the economy.

[AK]

I’m not usually known for my optimism … but I have noticed a distinct lack of good s*** for sale on Craigslist these days. I consider this a positive sign for the economy.

[AK]

I’m not usually known for my optimism … but I have noticed a distinct lack of good s*** for sale on Craigslist these days. I consider this a positive sign for the economy.

[AK]

I’m not usually known for my optimism … but I have noticed a distinct lack of good s*** for sale on Craigslist these days. I consider this a positive sign for the economy.

[Author]

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