Sell

[Coronita]

I think it’s about time to start reeling things in..Would rather buy property versus stock at this point.

Carnvial Cruises was $12 when I bought it. I thought it was good to sell at $16. It’s $25 today.

Doesn’t make sense

Doh

[Coronita]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-09/speculative-fervor-in-u-s-stocks-surges-to-stunning-levels?srnd=premium

Speculation on steroids. Shoveler, maybe you are on to something … People staying home have nothing better to do.

[Coronita]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-09/98-of-s-p-500-members-zoom-past-their-50-day-moving-average?srnd=premium

98% of S&P500 zoomed passed their 50 day moving average.

[The-Shoveler]

If I was younger I would probably cave to the FOMO.

Going to sit this out out for now.

I did get a little SPYD, I am good/better off if the economy just takes off like the market seems to be predicting (or maybe just the fed).

[ltsddd]

Just dumb luck my broker rejected my attempts to short tsla last week and chk yesterday – they both shot up a lot higher from where I tried to short.

ah…chk is halted. A stock that shot up almost 200% in one day is planning to file for bankruptcy. Rigged.

nkla is halted.

[The-Shoveler]

In other news,
“Citi Warns Equity Euphoria at Highest Since 2002.”

I don’t pay attention to the talking heads much anymore but that was the headline yesterday.

[Coronita]

I think it’s time to be less greedy… I sold a good portion this morning and will keep things mostly in cash. Im going to hold onto my AMD options to see how long the hype lasts, along with TSM, and XLP consumer staples etf, That’s about it in my trading account.
I’ll try to build up in international equity etfs… thinking something like SCHF or vanguard’s version of an international index. No change to my 401k and retirement account. that’s on autopilot.

My YTD ended up around 20.3%

You guys that caught the bottom during covid and went in heavy I’m sure did way better on your YTD. Congrats on jumping in head first, I wish I had a stomach for it. Unfortunately, Ididn’t go all in at the bottom, being risk adverse as I am. But better than my original targets for this year before covid. The market corrections helped a lot, especially towards the end of May when things started to pop up again There’s no reason for me to continue taking greater risks, and it feels a little frothy now, so I’m out, mostly,.for now. I’m sort of envious that some of you got bigger balls than me …All I do is move in and out of tiny positions here and there like 300 times this year. Thankfully there’s no trading commissions or its very low for option contracts, lol.

Oh well, I can’t complain. I’m
pretty happy about the returns this year.

[img_assist|nid=27140|title=covidita|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=204]

Happy trading and good luck people

[The-Shoveler]

You’re not helping my FOMO

[plm]

That’s one big tax hit. I don’t sell since I hate paying taxes. My plan is to sell after I quit my job or get laid off. Thanks to progressive tax rates, I plan on paying zero fed taxes on 105K of income each year. Most of my stock gains are long term now so I should be able to sell 80K in long term gains tax free and 25K in short term tax free (standard deduction).

If I was going to sell it all at one. you are looking 23.8 percent fed tax on long term.

[Coronita]

I am already bending over on my W-2 wage AGI anyway. At this point any extra amount on top of that doesn’t really make that much more of a difference. Plus I’d rather pay a larger tax up front than earn a lifetime membership to the exclusive Capital Loss Carryover Club that I almost earned one bad year a long time ago when I was greedy. Almost all derivative trading has to be short term capital gains anyway, because option contracts don’t normally last more than a year

[plm]

Only started seriously doing stocks about 4 years ago so never went though a crash (close this year). so never had huge losses. Seems so easy to make money as I’ve only experienced a bull market till this year.

[The-Shoveler]

Your turn LOL.

[Coronita]

no, it is not nearly as easy at it is. Anyone who says otherwise is either exceptionally lucky or is lying . if it really was as easy as it seems, many of us wouldn’t be buying real estate too. and that in itself is not a walk in the park too.

I don’t try to be right all the time. I just try to be right enough time to be worth the hassle. If that means taking much smaller bites each time, so be it. And if I am consistently wrong for a stretch of time, it means I should spend more time doing a passive index fund. I don’t trust myself to put everything into my own abilities. it’s just dumb luck. Tax time is a pain in the ass. Before one use to have to enter all 300+ transactions into turbo tax. Now, a lot of it is figured out for you by your brokerage including cost basis and wash sales rules. But sometimes the do get it wrong. Especially when it comes to option contracts. I don’t think I have filed a 1040 less than 100 pages in a long time, and I have a weird case that I need to always mail the state tax in, and can’t do electronic. at least I’m creating jobs. someone had to scan/enter >100 pages into the system.

[plm]

I didn’t mean to say it wasn’t hard work, it just seems to me since stocks usually go up if you buy any stock, you should make money statistically long term. I’ve learned to avoid the small caps and stick with large caps and not sell when it goes down because it will go up some day. So if there is a market crash, just hold and don’t sell and a few years later you should be back. Buying chip and software stocks and FANG is the way to go I think. Playing it safe with large dividend stocks was a big mistake. I only know how to buy stocks and hold long term. No idea how to do options and don’t want to even try.

[Coronita]

[quote=plm]I didn’t mean to say it wasn’t hard work, it just seems to me since stocks usually go up if you buy any stock, you should make money statistically long term. I’ve learned to avoid the small caps and stick with large caps and not sell when it goes down because it will go up some day. So if there is a market crash, just hold and don’t sell and a few years later you should be back. Buying chip and software stocks and FANG is the way to go I think. Playing it safe with large dividend stocks was a big mistake. I only know how to buy stocks and hold long term. No idea how to do options and don’t want to even try.[/quote]

People who lived through the dot bomb days know how badly things can get. There was a point in time when people though Amazon would be just another internet company that fizzles. There was a point in time when Netscape seemed to be one of those companies that would be around. Who would have guessed Sun Microsystems would invented java would have tanked and need to be sold to Oracle at firesale prices. Yahoo evaporated and at once had a chance to purchase Google. There was a point in time Apple was near death and needed a lifeline from Microsoft. And more recently people wrote off AMD and thought they were going to go bankrupt, which probably would have happened if they never hired Lisa Su. Tesla wouldn’t be Tesla without Elon. Trying to pick winners and losers on tech and consistently be correct is a crapshoot. And specifically when it comes to technology things change literally overnight and disappear. You might not ever heard of USRobotics,3COM, Ascend Communications but a lot of these companies were famous for their dial up modem equipment. They died because they failed to innovate. Technology is one of the riskiest bets because things change so quickly. If you are on the wrong side of that technology curve of a company, you could easily get wiped out and never recover…. That’s a lot different from say a consumer staples company that churns out diapers that pays a decent dividend doing really boring stuff that doesn’t change that quickly. I don’t expect people who have never see a tech crash to understand this, and maybe you will be lucky and never will.

I don’t know when the hype will be over. If I did I wouldn’t have sold. It could be tomorrow it could be a year or two from now. What I do know is given my historical track record, I am way overdue for being wrong. So I am out.

[Author]

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