SEH Breakthrough Pricing

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy
No expert claim here, But My theory on this RE bust is this,

RE prices will stabilize at the maximum collective unhappiness Level,

Ie.. At the price where owners hoping for the return to 2005 highs give up hope,

And at the price that will still be too expensive for most to afford (except maybe Temecula valley and like areas where I think we are already seeing some good buying points here and there in My opinion ).

Good luck to all.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[Author]

Posts