Seeking the opinion of the buyers out there.

[UCGal]

[quote=Rt.66]So let’s verify it with 2 more Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?
[/quote]

I’m actually pretty bearish on the overall economy. I think it’s way to early to be talking about green shoots.

That said – if you are buying a house with a good financial plan – it pencils out as affordable compared to rent, you have financial reserves, you have plans for what happens if your income goes away… then why worry whether this is the eye of the storm or not.

If this is the GD2 – and we ALL lose our jobs, then what does it matter if you rent or own… you’ll still be in the soup line and living in a box when it’s all over. If you rent – your landlord might be in the next box over or behind you in the soup line.

[Rt.66]

You make a good point UCGal. And I was refering to you when I agreed that there is sometimes a difference between a house and a “home”. Sounds like you have a great hood that you love and that’s important, no doubt.

————

Here is a chart that illustrates the importance of the Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/update-case-shiller-100-year-chart/?ref=patrick.net

Look at the projection for a normal return to median prices (with a run-of-the-mill recession).

But if you are in the depression camp or even leaning towards that end of the scale then probably not a return to GD1 adjusted levels but a over correction to the downside maybe?

Good explantion on why the horrific unemployment number that are being reported every week are not even close to the bleak reality:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune09/unemployment06-09.html

[Rt.66]

You make a good point UCGal. And I was refering to you when I agreed that there is sometimes a difference between a house and a “home”. Sounds like you have a great hood that you love and that’s important, no doubt.

————

Here is a chart that illustrates the importance of the Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/update-case-shiller-100-year-chart/?ref=patrick.net

Look at the projection for a normal return to median prices (with a run-of-the-mill recession).

But if you are in the depression camp or even leaning towards that end of the scale then probably not a return to GD1 adjusted levels but a over correction to the downside maybe?

Good explantion on why the horrific unemployment number that are being reported every week are not even close to the bleak reality:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune09/unemployment06-09.html

[Rt.66]

You make a good point UCGal. And I was refering to you when I agreed that there is sometimes a difference between a house and a “home”. Sounds like you have a great hood that you love and that’s important, no doubt.

————

Here is a chart that illustrates the importance of the Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/update-case-shiller-100-year-chart/?ref=patrick.net

Look at the projection for a normal return to median prices (with a run-of-the-mill recession).

But if you are in the depression camp or even leaning towards that end of the scale then probably not a return to GD1 adjusted levels but a over correction to the downside maybe?

Good explantion on why the horrific unemployment number that are being reported every week are not even close to the bleak reality:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune09/unemployment06-09.html

[Rt.66]

You make a good point UCGal. And I was refering to you when I agreed that there is sometimes a difference between a house and a “home”. Sounds like you have a great hood that you love and that’s important, no doubt.

————

Here is a chart that illustrates the importance of the Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/update-case-shiller-100-year-chart/?ref=patrick.net

Look at the projection for a normal return to median prices (with a run-of-the-mill recession).

But if you are in the depression camp or even leaning towards that end of the scale then probably not a return to GD1 adjusted levels but a over correction to the downside maybe?

Good explantion on why the horrific unemployment number that are being reported every week are not even close to the bleak reality:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune09/unemployment06-09.html

[Rt.66]

You make a good point UCGal. And I was refering to you when I agreed that there is sometimes a difference between a house and a “home”. Sounds like you have a great hood that you love and that’s important, no doubt.

————

Here is a chart that illustrates the importance of the Questions:

1) Do you believe the “Green Shoots” PR and think we are at the end of a recession and NOT in the eye of a depression storm?

2) If so, then why do you believe this is just another run-of-the-mill recession and RE cycle?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/update-case-shiller-100-year-chart/?ref=patrick.net

Look at the projection for a normal return to median prices (with a run-of-the-mill recession).

But if you are in the depression camp or even leaning towards that end of the scale then probably not a return to GD1 adjusted levels but a over correction to the downside maybe?

Good explantion on why the horrific unemployment number that are being reported every week are not even close to the bleak reality:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune09/unemployment06-09.html

[temeculaguy]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=Rt.66]6 to 2? Holy crap, thats huge![/quote]

Welcome to Temecula Valley. To be fair, TG didn’t mean it is $200K. It just starts with 2. So the ratio is less dramatic than it looks, but 50%+ off is not hard to find in TV, 66% off is where I like to invest my money with but I don’t think I will ever be able to get it.
[/quote]

You can find it, 280k to 99k and it’s not a short sale.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31385-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679992

look at the similar listings and closings at the bottom of the link, this isn’t a bidding war price, it’s the going rate. This short is pending at 109k, original new price was 310k. This complex was terribly overpriced and bubble built in 2006, but 30-40 cents on the dollar is the norm, they rent for well over a grand, the multiplier is 100x or lower.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31217-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6684589

This 1br from 230k to 83k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31345-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679984

Rt.66, this is why you and I have disagreements on occasion, because we see two different worlds, the air is out of my balloon already. I paid about 40 cents on the dollar for my primary, would like to pay 35 cents on the dollar for a rental. As prices fell, rents didn’t fall at the same percentages, when the news was all good, these were a terrible investment at 300k, with all the bad news, I see 100k as an opportunity. Also, the ppsf for condos has flattend out at about $100 for the last three months and the same $100 for sfr’s for the last 6 months. I don’t think things will shoot up anytime soon, but the level we will kick around at is pretty much here.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=Rt.66]6 to 2? Holy crap, thats huge![/quote]

Welcome to Temecula Valley. To be fair, TG didn’t mean it is $200K. It just starts with 2. So the ratio is less dramatic than it looks, but 50%+ off is not hard to find in TV, 66% off is where I like to invest my money with but I don’t think I will ever be able to get it.
[/quote]

You can find it, 280k to 99k and it’s not a short sale.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31385-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679992

look at the similar listings and closings at the bottom of the link, this isn’t a bidding war price, it’s the going rate. This short is pending at 109k, original new price was 310k. This complex was terribly overpriced and bubble built in 2006, but 30-40 cents on the dollar is the norm, they rent for well over a grand, the multiplier is 100x or lower.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31217-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6684589

This 1br from 230k to 83k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31345-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679984

Rt.66, this is why you and I have disagreements on occasion, because we see two different worlds, the air is out of my balloon already. I paid about 40 cents on the dollar for my primary, would like to pay 35 cents on the dollar for a rental. As prices fell, rents didn’t fall at the same percentages, when the news was all good, these were a terrible investment at 300k, with all the bad news, I see 100k as an opportunity. Also, the ppsf for condos has flattend out at about $100 for the last three months and the same $100 for sfr’s for the last 6 months. I don’t think things will shoot up anytime soon, but the level we will kick around at is pretty much here.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=Rt.66]6 to 2? Holy crap, thats huge![/quote]

Welcome to Temecula Valley. To be fair, TG didn’t mean it is $200K. It just starts with 2. So the ratio is less dramatic than it looks, but 50%+ off is not hard to find in TV, 66% off is where I like to invest my money with but I don’t think I will ever be able to get it.
[/quote]

You can find it, 280k to 99k and it’s not a short sale.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31385-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679992

look at the similar listings and closings at the bottom of the link, this isn’t a bidding war price, it’s the going rate. This short is pending at 109k, original new price was 310k. This complex was terribly overpriced and bubble built in 2006, but 30-40 cents on the dollar is the norm, they rent for well over a grand, the multiplier is 100x or lower.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31217-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6684589

This 1br from 230k to 83k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31345-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679984

Rt.66, this is why you and I have disagreements on occasion, because we see two different worlds, the air is out of my balloon already. I paid about 40 cents on the dollar for my primary, would like to pay 35 cents on the dollar for a rental. As prices fell, rents didn’t fall at the same percentages, when the news was all good, these were a terrible investment at 300k, with all the bad news, I see 100k as an opportunity. Also, the ppsf for condos has flattend out at about $100 for the last three months and the same $100 for sfr’s for the last 6 months. I don’t think things will shoot up anytime soon, but the level we will kick around at is pretty much here.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=Rt.66]6 to 2? Holy crap, thats huge![/quote]

Welcome to Temecula Valley. To be fair, TG didn’t mean it is $200K. It just starts with 2. So the ratio is less dramatic than it looks, but 50%+ off is not hard to find in TV, 66% off is where I like to invest my money with but I don’t think I will ever be able to get it.
[/quote]

You can find it, 280k to 99k and it’s not a short sale.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31385-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679992

look at the similar listings and closings at the bottom of the link, this isn’t a bidding war price, it’s the going rate. This short is pending at 109k, original new price was 310k. This complex was terribly overpriced and bubble built in 2006, but 30-40 cents on the dollar is the norm, they rent for well over a grand, the multiplier is 100x or lower.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31217-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6684589

This 1br from 230k to 83k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31345-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679984

Rt.66, this is why you and I have disagreements on occasion, because we see two different worlds, the air is out of my balloon already. I paid about 40 cents on the dollar for my primary, would like to pay 35 cents on the dollar for a rental. As prices fell, rents didn’t fall at the same percentages, when the news was all good, these were a terrible investment at 300k, with all the bad news, I see 100k as an opportunity. Also, the ppsf for condos has flattend out at about $100 for the last three months and the same $100 for sfr’s for the last 6 months. I don’t think things will shoot up anytime soon, but the level we will kick around at is pretty much here.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=Rt.66]6 to 2? Holy crap, thats huge![/quote]

Welcome to Temecula Valley. To be fair, TG didn’t mean it is $200K. It just starts with 2. So the ratio is less dramatic than it looks, but 50%+ off is not hard to find in TV, 66% off is where I like to invest my money with but I don’t think I will ever be able to get it.
[/quote]

You can find it, 280k to 99k and it’s not a short sale.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31385-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679992

look at the similar listings and closings at the bottom of the link, this isn’t a bidding war price, it’s the going rate. This short is pending at 109k, original new price was 310k. This complex was terribly overpriced and bubble built in 2006, but 30-40 cents on the dollar is the norm, they rent for well over a grand, the multiplier is 100x or lower.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31217-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6684589

This 1br from 230k to 83k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31345-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6679984

Rt.66, this is why you and I have disagreements on occasion, because we see two different worlds, the air is out of my balloon already. I paid about 40 cents on the dollar for my primary, would like to pay 35 cents on the dollar for a rental. As prices fell, rents didn’t fall at the same percentages, when the news was all good, these were a terrible investment at 300k, with all the bad news, I see 100k as an opportunity. Also, the ppsf for condos has flattend out at about $100 for the last three months and the same $100 for sfr’s for the last 6 months. I don’t think things will shoot up anytime soon, but the level we will kick around at is pretty much here.

[Rt.66]

TG, Yeah we’ve been down the “Temecula is different road” Ahh the memories!

That was as good a comedy routine as RE thread IMHO. I have not felt so comedic lately.

[Rt.66]

TG, Yeah we’ve been down the “Temecula is different road” Ahh the memories!

That was as good a comedy routine as RE thread IMHO. I have not felt so comedic lately.

[Rt.66]

TG, Yeah we’ve been down the “Temecula is different road” Ahh the memories!

That was as good a comedy routine as RE thread IMHO. I have not felt so comedic lately.

[Rt.66]

TG, Yeah we’ve been down the “Temecula is different road” Ahh the memories!

That was as good a comedy routine as RE thread IMHO. I have not felt so comedic lately.

[Author]

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