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(former)FormerSanDiegan.
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May 31, 2007 at 2:09 PM #55764May 31, 2007 at 2:09 PM #55783
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantcyphire – I still like the idea of gauging prices. After all it was prices that were used to justify and define the existence of a bubble. However, as you point out, price alone is not effective in defining where things are headed. Months of inventory is a decent gauge of the market since it accounts for the two key items that 9 out of 10 economists agree drive prices : supply (houses for sale) and demand (recent actual closed sales as a proxy).
June 1, 2007 at 1:30 PM #55960latesummer2008
ParticipantDataQuick Numbers are out. Not great for SFRs in SD.
Carlsbad -18.3%
Coronado -11.5%
La Jolla -19.2%
Rancho Santa Fe -35.0%
Rancho Bernardo – 23.9%
Solana Beach -42.8%Condos got murdered almost completely across the board, as well.
But I guess this is just a monthly aberration, right? And all the other High End Areas that got WHACKED in April as well.
May will be even worse..
June 1, 2007 at 1:30 PM #55979ParticipantDataQuick Numbers are out. Not great for SFRs in SD.
Carlsbad -18.3%
Coronado -11.5%
La Jolla -19.2%
Rancho Santa Fe -35.0%
Rancho Bernardo – 23.9%
Solana Beach -42.8%Condos got murdered almost completely across the board, as well.
But I guess this is just a monthly aberration, right? And all the other High End Areas that got WHACKED in April as well.
May will be even worse..
June 1, 2007 at 1:44 PM #55968ParticipantMore numbers from Dataquick SAME month …
Bay Park 92110
12 sales, Median Price UP 26.0%Carlsbad 92008
19 sales, Median Price UP 9.8%Cardiff 92007
12 sales, Median Price UP 31.6%Del Mar 92014
11 sales, Median Price UP 20.2%Ocean Beach 92107
18 sales, Median Price UP 2.5%Point Loma 92106
19 sales, Median Price UP 9.5%June 1, 2007 at 1:44 PM #55987ParticipantMore numbers from Dataquick SAME month …
Bay Park 92110
12 sales, Median Price UP 26.0%Carlsbad 92008
19 sales, Median Price UP 9.8%Cardiff 92007
12 sales, Median Price UP 31.6%Del Mar 92014
11 sales, Median Price UP 20.2%Ocean Beach 92107
18 sales, Median Price UP 2.5%Point Loma 92106
19 sales, Median Price UP 9.5%June 1, 2007 at 2:03 PM #55974ParticipantWhere are the Condo Prices FSD? Why don’t you post those as well…
I thought so.. Because they are AWFUL….
June 1, 2007 at 2:03 PM #55993ParticipantWhere are the Condo Prices FSD? Why don’t you post those as well…
I thought so.. Because they are AWFUL….
June 1, 2007 at 2:25 PM #55980ParticipantYou still do not understand my point.
1. Prices are down.
2. Monthly zip-code specific medians are extremely noisy.
Example: The 92010 Carlsbad zip code you selected (out of 4 zip codes) year-over year price changes for the last few months:
Oct 4.90%
Nov 7.00%
Dec -5.20%
Jan 17.60%
Feb -7.30%
Mar -2.10%
Apr -18.30%Possible interpretation
Nov – “Wow prices are still up 7%, yipee”Dec = “Man price appreciation has declined about 12%, we are crashing and burning”
Jan = “Happy Days are here again, 17% let’s mortgage to the hilt and buy a Hummer”
Feb = “RUh ROh shaggy, we’re down over 7%, a bruising 25% deceleration in the appreciation machine. No gas this month for the hummer”
Mar = ” Down 2%, Yawn”
Apr = “Oceanside is PUMMELED DOWN ALMOST 20%. Honey, pack up the HUMMER, grab the guns, it’s ARMAGEDDON time”
June 1, 2007 at 2:25 PM #55999ParticipantYou still do not understand my point.
1. Prices are down.
2. Monthly zip-code specific medians are extremely noisy.
Example: The 92010 Carlsbad zip code you selected (out of 4 zip codes) year-over year price changes for the last few months:
Oct 4.90%
Nov 7.00%
Dec -5.20%
Jan 17.60%
Feb -7.30%
Mar -2.10%
Apr -18.30%Possible interpretation
Nov – “Wow prices are still up 7%, yipee”Dec = “Man price appreciation has declined about 12%, we are crashing and burning”
Jan = “Happy Days are here again, 17% let’s mortgage to the hilt and buy a Hummer”
Feb = “RUh ROh shaggy, we’re down over 7%, a bruising 25% deceleration in the appreciation machine. No gas this month for the hummer”
Mar = ” Down 2%, Yawn”
Apr = “Oceanside is PUMMELED DOWN ALMOST 20%. Honey, pack up the HUMMER, grab the guns, it’s ARMAGEDDON time”
June 1, 2007 at 2:40 PM #55984Participant“Where are the Condo Prices FSD? Why don’t you post those as well… ”
Because everyone already knows that condos suck.
Or maybe, perhaps those zip-code specific numbers I posted to start this thread are subject to wild fluctuations and may not be representative of the market.
http://www.oceansidewentDOWN5%thenUP17%thendown7%blahblah.blahg
June 1, 2007 at 2:40 PM #56003Participant“Where are the Condo Prices FSD? Why don’t you post those as well… ”
Because everyone already knows that condos suck.
Or maybe, perhaps those zip-code specific numbers I posted to start this thread are subject to wild fluctuations and may not be representative of the market.
http://www.oceansidewentDOWN5%thenUP17%thendown7%blahblah.blahg
June 1, 2007 at 5:50 PM #56006ParticipantAnd I suppose the Condo Market has nothing to do with the SFR market? The Real Estate Food Chain is collapsing whether you want to believe it, or not. The bottom gets hit first, and it effects 2-5 transactions up the chain. Pretty simple to understand. You can interpret the numbers anyway you wish, but if you think that monthly report is positive or just noise, than I suggest you look again.
THE MARKET IS BAD, its not just the condos…..
June 1, 2007 at 5:50 PM #56025ParticipantAnd I suppose the Condo Market has nothing to do with the SFR market? The Real Estate Food Chain is collapsing whether you want to believe it, or not. The bottom gets hit first, and it effects 2-5 transactions up the chain. Pretty simple to understand. You can interpret the numbers anyway you wish, but if you think that monthly report is positive or just noise, than I suggest you look again.
THE MARKET IS BAD, its not just the condos…..
June 1, 2007 at 6:48 PM #56032SD Realtor
ParticipantFSD let me try…
LS there is not an argument that prices are down. However it appears to me your posts would be constructive if you presented them in a different manner. For instance instead of presenting a new post every time you find a new piece of data that bolsters your point of view, why not do something more akin to what JG has done. His data is presented in a comprehensive manner with alot of history to it that shows clear trends. (Note his data is embedded in sdr’s short sale thread but it is REALLY well organized and presented nicely)
Why not gather the monthly medians for all the high end zips for the past several years and plot them. Distinguish between SFR and attached homes. Things like that. Compare them to a few middle income or lower income zips.
Maybe keep it all in one post and update it regularly.
This may be a more constructive way of displaying what is going on. Statistical blips can be identified and dismissed. I think that will display your arguments in a much more organized manner then the current way you do things.
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