- This topic has 74 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 5 months ago by
(former)FormerSanDiegan.
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May 30, 2007 at 9:04 PM #55642May 30, 2007 at 9:04 PM #55624
cyphire
ParticipantCouple of points which I NEVER see in any of these blogs… As it relates to the wealthier areas.
The run up in prices has been crazy – but it pales in comparison to how much richer the wealthy have become during the current administration (and before).
The top income earners are not only making most of the additional wealth these days (the middle class is slowly declining in buying power), but due to the tax cuts are keeping a greater percentage. The federal rate on capital gains is 15% etc.
The wealthier people are competing with other wealthy people for the really great properties – and these get sold. They have literally nothing to do with the current housing crisis.
Take example where I live, La Jolla CA. A wealthy community (not everyone, but here is where the wealthy live) and the folks in this town with money own the stocks, have stakes in the mergers, etc., are the CEO’s (and all the outrageous salary/options that go with it) and have gotten far wealthier in recent times. Home prices for the good properties (remodeled, new, ocean views, square footage larger than 3K feet, large lots, etc.) have come off their unrealistic heights and are now merely insane. But these properties are the exception rather than the rule. They sell because they are a limited quantity and supply and demand does apply. There are many wealthy buyers fighting over the excellent properties. As these are the properties that sell, they bring up the median.
The vast majority of the homes have flaws. They don’t have a full ocean view, they are 2,900 feet or smaller, they are on tiny lots (La Jolla only allows you to build a house which is 60% of your lot size – example a 4K sq foot lot yields a house which is 2,400 feet max), are near busy roads or schools, or they were last updated before Elvis died. These house are sitting on the market for months and months. They are still insanely priced, but they aren’t selling. This is why the median is up in the wealthier communities.
Where I live (by the beach), there are properties just east of me which are old, smelly, and still priced in with a 250% increase from 5 years ago. Even when they come down to 150% increase, they still are tiny, smelly, crappy, etc. and in a market where people have lost their “everything will increase” mentality, they just won’t move.
In La Jolla 2 years ago, you could buy a 1.2 million dollar moldy, smelly, cruddy, 2,000 sq foot house with no view, put a new kitchen in, new carpet, etc. and sell it for 1.8 million. Those days are over, but even if the house prices are down 10% or more, the buyers who will step up and buy the cleaned up tiny house for over 1.5 million are gone… Because at the end of the party, they are just that… Smelly, tiny, crappy, and filled with termites and no one wants to wake up and realize that they just paid 1M+ for this kind of property.
May 30, 2007 at 9:50 PM #55655Anonymous
GuestPer the Union-Buffoon/DataQuick:
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSDUT.shtmCoronado, down 11.5% on 17 sales
Hillcrest/Mission Hills, down 20.0% on 16 sales
La Jolla, down 19.2% on 38 sales
RSF, down 35.0% on 18 sales
RSF post office, down 17.3% on 4 salesI’ve been closely perusing the zip code data for two years now. Isolated declines YOY were rare, previously; they have been common for six months, now.
I chart La Jolla and San Diego because I learned long ago that you can fool with numbers but it’s more difficult to fool with charts.
Without a doubt, prices are down in San Diego and La Jolla.
May 30, 2007 at 9:50 PM #55637GuestPer the Union-Buffoon/DataQuick:
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSDUT.shtmCoronado, down 11.5% on 17 sales
Hillcrest/Mission Hills, down 20.0% on 16 sales
La Jolla, down 19.2% on 38 sales
RSF, down 35.0% on 18 sales
RSF post office, down 17.3% on 4 salesI’ve been closely perusing the zip code data for two years now. Isolated declines YOY were rare, previously; they have been common for six months, now.
I chart La Jolla and San Diego because I learned long ago that you can fool with numbers but it’s more difficult to fool with charts.
Without a doubt, prices are down in San Diego and La Jolla.
May 30, 2007 at 10:28 PM #55639bob2007
Participantlastsummer2008,
I don’t usually post about an individual, but after reading your post I looked at your blog. Working in education with the attitude you displayed in your post is not a good thing for the kids. Science in particular should always be open to opposing points of view. Maybe its time for your next career.
FSD, Obviously Mistaken. The LA Times Information on Sunday (5/27) was for Orange and Ventura County stupid. I believe San Diego County might come out this weekend. We’ll see what the monthly numbers look like then. You really are a friggin Idiot.. If you don’t like to hear what I say, don’t read it. It’s that simple.
Also, if you quote my blog again, I’ll have you restricted from this site.
May 30, 2007 at 10:28 PM #55657Participantlastsummer2008,
I don’t usually post about an individual, but after reading your post I looked at your blog. Working in education with the attitude you displayed in your post is not a good thing for the kids. Science in particular should always be open to opposing points of view. Maybe its time for your next career.
FSD, Obviously Mistaken. The LA Times Information on Sunday (5/27) was for Orange and Ventura County stupid. I believe San Diego County might come out this weekend. We’ll see what the monthly numbers look like then. You really are a friggin Idiot.. If you don’t like to hear what I say, don’t read it. It’s that simple.
Also, if you quote my blog again, I’ll have you restricted from this site.
May 30, 2007 at 10:32 PM #55641IONEGARM
Participant“I don’t usually post about an individual, but after reading your post I looked at your blog. Working in education with the attitude you displayed in your post is not a good thing for the kids. Science in particular should always be open to opposing points of view. Maybe its time for your next career. ”
I woulda been cruder about it, but yeah what ^^^^ he said.
May 30, 2007 at 10:32 PM #55659Participant“I don’t usually post about an individual, but after reading your post I looked at your blog. Working in education with the attitude you displayed in your post is not a good thing for the kids. Science in particular should always be open to opposing points of view. Maybe its time for your next career. ”
I woulda been cruder about it, but yeah what ^^^^ he said.
May 31, 2007 at 5:49 AM #556774plexowner
Participantlatesummer2008 – while reading one of your posts this past week I wondered, how come nobody has blasted this guy for constantly posting the link to his site? plugging a personal website is one of the things that powayseller got blasted for
I followed the link and didn’t find anything that caught my interest
May 31, 2007 at 5:49 AM #55658Participantlatesummer2008 – while reading one of your posts this past week I wondered, how come nobody has blasted this guy for constantly posting the link to his site? plugging a personal website is one of the things that powayseller got blasted for
I followed the link and didn’t find anything that caught my interest
May 31, 2007 at 6:19 AM #55664latesummer2008
ParticipantDenial is an ugly thing. San Diego is the most overpriced region in the United States. LOOK AT THE DATA from THE CASE/SCHILLER INDEX this month. DOWN -6.0%. besides Detriot, it suffered the worst decline in the nation. Detroit is understandable because of job loss. But San Diego? Why? OVERPRICED. Plain and simple. My guess is most of you have money to lose in this market and are worried. I understand. However, don’t shoot the messenger. I am just reporting data presented to the PUBLIC. It is old news. If you want to believe the market is fine, go ahead. Talk to me in LATE SUMMER of 2008. I believe most of you may have a different opinion of what the market looks like.
As for teaching in a public school, you guys have no clue, so don’t even try to go there. Keep your kids in private school where they are protected from societies ills. Just ask the Harvard Westlake girl who’s head got bashed in by a claw hammer from another student at Harvard Westlake last month. By the way, Harvard Westlake is the most prestigious private school in LA.
And one last note. Who died and made you the Piggington Police?
May 31, 2007 at 6:19 AM #55683ParticipantDenial is an ugly thing. San Diego is the most overpriced region in the United States. LOOK AT THE DATA from THE CASE/SCHILLER INDEX this month. DOWN -6.0%. besides Detriot, it suffered the worst decline in the nation. Detroit is understandable because of job loss. But San Diego? Why? OVERPRICED. Plain and simple. My guess is most of you have money to lose in this market and are worried. I understand. However, don’t shoot the messenger. I am just reporting data presented to the PUBLIC. It is old news. If you want to believe the market is fine, go ahead. Talk to me in LATE SUMMER of 2008. I believe most of you may have a different opinion of what the market looks like.
As for teaching in a public school, you guys have no clue, so don’t even try to go there. Keep your kids in private school where they are protected from societies ills. Just ask the Harvard Westlake girl who’s head got bashed in by a claw hammer from another student at Harvard Westlake last month. By the way, Harvard Westlake is the most prestigious private school in LA.
And one last note. Who died and made you the Piggington Police?
May 31, 2007 at 7:04 AM #55670sddreaming
ParticipantAlso, if you quote my blog again, I’ll have you restricted from this site.
Just curious latesummer2008, how can you have someone blocked from piggington.com?
May 31, 2007 at 7:04 AM #55689ParticipantAlso, if you quote my blog again, I’ll have you restricted from this site.
Just curious latesummer2008, how can you have someone blocked from piggington.com?
May 31, 2007 at 7:07 AM #55672Duck
ParticipantIf it’s down 6% that makes it overpriced now? Or did that make it overpriced last year?
Some areas of San Diego county (subprime areas and areas with too much new construction) are taking a much harder hit than 6%. Some areas are seeing sales activity and prices on the rise compared to 2006. Wide sweeping statements like calling a bottom in late Summer 2008 (not sure exactly where that will be the bottom, but I suppose you have it nailed to a particular 2 block area) is just stupid. RE cycles take years to work themselves out.
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