Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Schiff- Crash Proof
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October 25, 2007 at 7:30 PM #91961October 26, 2007 at 8:22 AM #91924kewpParticipant
I’ve read this book, given it to my father to read and highly recommend it to others. Its funny when reading it that it sounds almost like it was written just a few weeks ago, given how accurate it is.
I like Peter Schiff, I’ve been a fan since the dot-bomb days when I listened to his advice and cashed out a few months before that bubble burst. He and I share a strong passion for fundamentals.
Some of his ideas are a bit loony, which kind of makes sense considering his father, Irwin Schiff, is a tax protester. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irwin_Schiff
I sometimes wonder if much of his position is just ire directed towards the US government due to them locking up his dad in his golden years.
Now onto the points you mentioned:
1) Kind of hard to argue with this given the current monetary policy of the Fed. However, I don’t necessarily see a declining dollar as a totally bad thing, as long as the decline is orderly and hits a bottom of something around 50% of its current value compared to other currencies.
I say this primarily because I am an ardent conservationist and disgusted by the over-consumption of Americans. We eat too much, buy too much crappy imported junk and our homes and cars are too big and inefficient. Rising commodity prices would *force* us to cut consumption. Basically, we would have to live like Europeans (expecting my door to get kicked down and black-bagged any second now).
This will also be a win for the US worker as it makes the cost of outsourcing American jobs (particularly white collar ones) much higher. I personally would much rather be employed and collecting a salary in American pesos than jobless with a handful of strong dollars.
Finally, a devalued currency devalues our debt with it and increases the values of our exports.
Hopefully the net end result of this is a kind of global gentrification where the American standard of living declines somewhat (we can handle it) while that of Asia rises a bit. This is in everyones best interests, IMHO.
2) This has been a winning strategy for at least the last few years. All my savings plan is in foreign stocks, diversified emerging market, gold and energy index funds. I rent and don’t have a savings account, all my discretionary income goes towards debt reduction and investing.
Saving, especially US dollars, is for suckers. They are losing purchasing power on a daily basis.
The real question in my mind, however, is what the effect of s US economic crash would be on the world market. Schiff’s take is that as all we do is consume foreign goods with borrowed foreign money, we can be replaced by consumers in other markets. Basically, the Chinese start buying their own stuff with a stronger Yuan instead of shipping it over here (fine by me, the can keep their poison pet food and lead covered toys).
The analogy is we are a drag on the global economic train, which will take off once the US is cut loose. I’m much less confident about this than Schiff is. Historically, this has not been the case.
3) Peter has a right to make money and is a capitalist, so I don’t have a problem with hawking his services. I have heard that EPC’s fees are high, but there is really no need to go with them. My organizations savings plan makes it easy to implement his investment model, so there is really no need to go through them if you don’t want to.
For the record, I don’t agree with his opinions on Social Security (says its a Ponzi scheme) or the idea that we are going to return to some sort of global gold standard.
October 26, 2007 at 8:22 AM #91953kewpParticipantI’ve read this book, given it to my father to read and highly recommend it to others. Its funny when reading it that it sounds almost like it was written just a few weeks ago, given how accurate it is.
I like Peter Schiff, I’ve been a fan since the dot-bomb days when I listened to his advice and cashed out a few months before that bubble burst. He and I share a strong passion for fundamentals.
Some of his ideas are a bit loony, which kind of makes sense considering his father, Irwin Schiff, is a tax protester. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irwin_Schiff
I sometimes wonder if much of his position is just ire directed towards the US government due to them locking up his dad in his golden years.
Now onto the points you mentioned:
1) Kind of hard to argue with this given the current monetary policy of the Fed. However, I don’t necessarily see a declining dollar as a totally bad thing, as long as the decline is orderly and hits a bottom of something around 50% of its current value compared to other currencies.
I say this primarily because I am an ardent conservationist and disgusted by the over-consumption of Americans. We eat too much, buy too much crappy imported junk and our homes and cars are too big and inefficient. Rising commodity prices would *force* us to cut consumption. Basically, we would have to live like Europeans (expecting my door to get kicked down and black-bagged any second now).
This will also be a win for the US worker as it makes the cost of outsourcing American jobs (particularly white collar ones) much higher. I personally would much rather be employed and collecting a salary in American pesos than jobless with a handful of strong dollars.
Finally, a devalued currency devalues our debt with it and increases the values of our exports.
Hopefully the net end result of this is a kind of global gentrification where the American standard of living declines somewhat (we can handle it) while that of Asia rises a bit. This is in everyones best interests, IMHO.
2) This has been a winning strategy for at least the last few years. All my savings plan is in foreign stocks, diversified emerging market, gold and energy index funds. I rent and don’t have a savings account, all my discretionary income goes towards debt reduction and investing.
Saving, especially US dollars, is for suckers. They are losing purchasing power on a daily basis.
The real question in my mind, however, is what the effect of s US economic crash would be on the world market. Schiff’s take is that as all we do is consume foreign goods with borrowed foreign money, we can be replaced by consumers in other markets. Basically, the Chinese start buying their own stuff with a stronger Yuan instead of shipping it over here (fine by me, the can keep their poison pet food and lead covered toys).
The analogy is we are a drag on the global economic train, which will take off once the US is cut loose. I’m much less confident about this than Schiff is. Historically, this has not been the case.
3) Peter has a right to make money and is a capitalist, so I don’t have a problem with hawking his services. I have heard that EPC’s fees are high, but there is really no need to go with them. My organizations savings plan makes it easy to implement his investment model, so there is really no need to go through them if you don’t want to.
For the record, I don’t agree with his opinions on Social Security (says its a Ponzi scheme) or the idea that we are going to return to some sort of global gold standard.
October 26, 2007 at 8:22 AM #91965kewpParticipantI’ve read this book, given it to my father to read and highly recommend it to others. Its funny when reading it that it sounds almost like it was written just a few weeks ago, given how accurate it is.
I like Peter Schiff, I’ve been a fan since the dot-bomb days when I listened to his advice and cashed out a few months before that bubble burst. He and I share a strong passion for fundamentals.
Some of his ideas are a bit loony, which kind of makes sense considering his father, Irwin Schiff, is a tax protester. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irwin_Schiff
I sometimes wonder if much of his position is just ire directed towards the US government due to them locking up his dad in his golden years.
Now onto the points you mentioned:
1) Kind of hard to argue with this given the current monetary policy of the Fed. However, I don’t necessarily see a declining dollar as a totally bad thing, as long as the decline is orderly and hits a bottom of something around 50% of its current value compared to other currencies.
I say this primarily because I am an ardent conservationist and disgusted by the over-consumption of Americans. We eat too much, buy too much crappy imported junk and our homes and cars are too big and inefficient. Rising commodity prices would *force* us to cut consumption. Basically, we would have to live like Europeans (expecting my door to get kicked down and black-bagged any second now).
This will also be a win for the US worker as it makes the cost of outsourcing American jobs (particularly white collar ones) much higher. I personally would much rather be employed and collecting a salary in American pesos than jobless with a handful of strong dollars.
Finally, a devalued currency devalues our debt with it and increases the values of our exports.
Hopefully the net end result of this is a kind of global gentrification where the American standard of living declines somewhat (we can handle it) while that of Asia rises a bit. This is in everyones best interests, IMHO.
2) This has been a winning strategy for at least the last few years. All my savings plan is in foreign stocks, diversified emerging market, gold and energy index funds. I rent and don’t have a savings account, all my discretionary income goes towards debt reduction and investing.
Saving, especially US dollars, is for suckers. They are losing purchasing power on a daily basis.
The real question in my mind, however, is what the effect of s US economic crash would be on the world market. Schiff’s take is that as all we do is consume foreign goods with borrowed foreign money, we can be replaced by consumers in other markets. Basically, the Chinese start buying their own stuff with a stronger Yuan instead of shipping it over here (fine by me, the can keep their poison pet food and lead covered toys).
The analogy is we are a drag on the global economic train, which will take off once the US is cut loose. I’m much less confident about this than Schiff is. Historically, this has not been the case.
3) Peter has a right to make money and is a capitalist, so I don’t have a problem with hawking his services. I have heard that EPC’s fees are high, but there is really no need to go with them. My organizations savings plan makes it easy to implement his investment model, so there is really no need to go through them if you don’t want to.
For the record, I don’t agree with his opinions on Social Security (says its a Ponzi scheme) or the idea that we are going to return to some sort of global gold standard.
October 26, 2007 at 9:14 AM #9202634f3f3fParticipantBasically, we would have to live like Europeans (expecting my door to get kicked down and black-bagged any second now). Well, some think that may not be a bad thing. It’s just a shift of emphasis, nothing to get too troubled about π
Jeremy Rifkin makes some interesting observations below:
October 26, 2007 at 9:14 AM #9206734f3f3fParticipantBasically, we would have to live like Europeans (expecting my door to get kicked down and black-bagged any second now). Well, some think that may not be a bad thing. It’s just a shift of emphasis, nothing to get too troubled about π
Jeremy Rifkin makes some interesting observations below:
October 26, 2007 at 9:14 AM #9205334f3f3fParticipantBasically, we would have to live like Europeans (expecting my door to get kicked down and black-bagged any second now). Well, some think that may not be a bad thing. It’s just a shift of emphasis, nothing to get too troubled about π
Jeremy Rifkin makes some interesting observations below:
October 26, 2007 at 9:30 AM #92045beachhunterParticipantqwety007- I agree with the artical and feel we are at a crossroads in amercia. I have been worried about the average american and what it is losing on a daily basis. The things that mean more today are TV, video games and myspace.. Euro’s travel more, see more, explore more and share more time with families.. this has been lost in average america.. our best babysitter is TV and a night out is drivethru at Mc’ds.
I have invested all over the world but the only USA stuff I have is the bearx fund and DOG.. going to get more dog when we cut rates againOctober 26, 2007 at 9:30 AM #92071beachhunterParticipantqwety007- I agree with the artical and feel we are at a crossroads in amercia. I have been worried about the average american and what it is losing on a daily basis. The things that mean more today are TV, video games and myspace.. Euro’s travel more, see more, explore more and share more time with families.. this has been lost in average america.. our best babysitter is TV and a night out is drivethru at Mc’ds.
I have invested all over the world but the only USA stuff I have is the bearx fund and DOG.. going to get more dog when we cut rates againOctober 26, 2007 at 9:30 AM #92085beachhunterParticipantqwety007- I agree with the artical and feel we are at a crossroads in amercia. I have been worried about the average american and what it is losing on a daily basis. The things that mean more today are TV, video games and myspace.. Euro’s travel more, see more, explore more and share more time with families.. this has been lost in average america.. our best babysitter is TV and a night out is drivethru at Mc’ds.
I have invested all over the world but the only USA stuff I have is the bearx fund and DOG.. going to get more dog when we cut rates againOctober 26, 2007 at 9:35 AM #92048patientlywaitingParticipantAmerica has the option to open the doors to immigration to solve our economic problems. One advantage we have is that smart people are attracted to America and willing to relocate.
That’s what will happen as the population ages and workers are needed to care for them.
October 26, 2007 at 9:35 AM #92074patientlywaitingParticipantAmerica has the option to open the doors to immigration to solve our economic problems. One advantage we have is that smart people are attracted to America and willing to relocate.
That’s what will happen as the population ages and workers are needed to care for them.
October 26, 2007 at 9:35 AM #92088patientlywaitingParticipantAmerica has the option to open the doors to immigration to solve our economic problems. One advantage we have is that smart people are attracted to America and willing to relocate.
That’s what will happen as the population ages and workers are needed to care for them.
October 26, 2007 at 10:12 AM #92057kewpParticipantJeremy Rifkin makes some interesting observations below:
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0817-08.htm
Brilliant article! Can’t say I disagree with it at all. Even as a patriot I’ve often said that we could learn much from the EU.
I love America, but I’m gonna try and live like a European as much as I can. Now to just convince the UC system to give staff 6 weeks of paid vacation per year…
October 26, 2007 at 10:12 AM #92096kewpParticipantJeremy Rifkin makes some interesting observations below:
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0817-08.htm
Brilliant article! Can’t say I disagree with it at all. Even as a patriot I’ve often said that we could learn much from the EU.
I love America, but I’m gonna try and live like a European as much as I can. Now to just convince the UC system to give staff 6 weeks of paid vacation per year…
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