Santa Fe Trails – Getting Close

[sdrealtor]

golfgal,
The ecinitas homes you linked to are 30+ years old and of relatively poor construction quality. The neighborhood is nothing like this one and the school is one of the lowest ranked in the district compared to one of the highest ranked. I’d call it lipstick on a pigg.

[sdrealtor]

AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

To clarify one thing from my post above, homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.

There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.

[sdrealtor]

AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

To clarify one thing from my post above, homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.

There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.

[sdrealtor]

AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

To clarify one thing from my post above, homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.

There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.

[sdrealtor]

AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

To clarify one thing from my post above, homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.

There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.

[sdrealtor]

AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

To clarify one thing from my post above, homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.

There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

Homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.[/quote]

Wasn’t this your quote?

[quote=sdrealtor]CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.[/quote]

If you like, I can use a 5/1 ARM with 5% + PMI if you like, but the # will come out quite close to using 0% down and 30 year fixed. I’m only using your #, so which is it? Does it pencil out in 1997 or not? OK, lets use your $390k. With the 3% inflation, you’re looking at $540k + $50k of improvement = $590k. $590k @ 6.5% & 0% down = $3700/month.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.[/quote]
If you noticed, I didn’t mentioned MM at all. I didn’t compare this area to MM, since MM doesn’t have 3000 sq-ft house. Comparing it to MM would be apple to orange comparison. However, since you brought up schools as the main premium reason vs MM, when comparing schools in SFT vs MM, here’s the 2007 API # for Whites in Mission Estancia Elementary School: 917. Based in the API # for the Asian & White students at Sandburg Elementary: 890 & 895 respectively. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at Diegueno Middle School: 895. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at Challenger Middle School: 894 & 830. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at La Costa Canyon High: 832. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at MMHS: 798 & 787.

I didn’t state the Asian # for SFT schools because those schools are predominantly White. But since I’m Asian, the Asian API schools of MM is what matter to me. based on 2007 API school of Asians in MM vs Whites in SFT, in Elementary schools, MM is lower by 27 points. In Middle schools, MM is ~= to SFT and in High School, they’re lower by 34 points. Those # are hardly dramatic enough to merit the premium you give it based on schools alone. Also, these Asian students in MM, a good portion of them are learning English as their second language, which means their English scores would be lower. That alone, would be a good explanation for the slightly lower API score.

But I would compare this area to PQ, CMR, RB, & CV. Those areas all have better school than this area in the HS level. Although this area is closer to the beach than the 1st 3 areas, depending on where you work, these 3 areas are most likely be closer to high tech jobs.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

Homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.[/quote]

Wasn’t this your quote?

[quote=sdrealtor]CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.[/quote]

If you like, I can use a 5/1 ARM with 5% + PMI if you like, but the # will come out quite close to using 0% down and 30 year fixed. I’m only using your #, so which is it? Does it pencil out in 1997 or not? OK, lets use your $390k. With the 3% inflation, you’re looking at $540k + $50k of improvement = $590k. $590k @ 6.5% & 0% down = $3700/month.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.[/quote]
If you noticed, I didn’t mentioned MM at all. I didn’t compare this area to MM, since MM doesn’t have 3000 sq-ft house. Comparing it to MM would be apple to orange comparison. However, since you brought up schools as the main premium reason vs MM, when comparing schools in SFT vs MM, here’s the 2007 API # for Whites in Mission Estancia Elementary School: 917. Based in the API # for the Asian & White students at Sandburg Elementary: 890 & 895 respectively. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at Diegueno Middle School: 895. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at Challenger Middle School: 894 & 830. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at La Costa Canyon High: 832. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at MMHS: 798 & 787.

I didn’t state the Asian # for SFT schools because those schools are predominantly White. But since I’m Asian, the Asian API schools of MM is what matter to me. based on 2007 API school of Asians in MM vs Whites in SFT, in Elementary schools, MM is lower by 27 points. In Middle schools, MM is ~= to SFT and in High School, they’re lower by 34 points. Those # are hardly dramatic enough to merit the premium you give it based on schools alone. Also, these Asian students in MM, a good portion of them are learning English as their second language, which means their English scores would be lower. That alone, would be a good explanation for the slightly lower API score.

But I would compare this area to PQ, CMR, RB, & CV. Those areas all have better school than this area in the HS level. Although this area is closer to the beach than the 1st 3 areas, depending on where you work, these 3 areas are most likely be closer to high tech jobs.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

Homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.[/quote]

Wasn’t this your quote?

[quote=sdrealtor]CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.[/quote]

If you like, I can use a 5/1 ARM with 5% + PMI if you like, but the # will come out quite close to using 0% down and 30 year fixed. I’m only using your #, so which is it? Does it pencil out in 1997 or not? OK, lets use your $390k. With the 3% inflation, you’re looking at $540k + $50k of improvement = $590k. $590k @ 6.5% & 0% down = $3700/month.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.[/quote]
If you noticed, I didn’t mentioned MM at all. I didn’t compare this area to MM, since MM doesn’t have 3000 sq-ft house. Comparing it to MM would be apple to orange comparison. However, since you brought up schools as the main premium reason vs MM, when comparing schools in SFT vs MM, here’s the 2007 API # for Whites in Mission Estancia Elementary School: 917. Based in the API # for the Asian & White students at Sandburg Elementary: 890 & 895 respectively. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at Diegueno Middle School: 895. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at Challenger Middle School: 894 & 830. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at La Costa Canyon High: 832. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at MMHS: 798 & 787.

I didn’t state the Asian # for SFT schools because those schools are predominantly White. But since I’m Asian, the Asian API schools of MM is what matter to me. based on 2007 API school of Asians in MM vs Whites in SFT, in Elementary schools, MM is lower by 27 points. In Middle schools, MM is ~= to SFT and in High School, they’re lower by 34 points. Those # are hardly dramatic enough to merit the premium you give it based on schools alone. Also, these Asian students in MM, a good portion of them are learning English as their second language, which means their English scores would be lower. That alone, would be a good explanation for the slightly lower API score.

But I would compare this area to PQ, CMR, RB, & CV. Those areas all have better school than this area in the HS level. Although this area is closer to the beach than the 1st 3 areas, depending on where you work, these 3 areas are most likely be closer to high tech jobs.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

Homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.[/quote]

Wasn’t this your quote?

[quote=sdrealtor]CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.[/quote]

If you like, I can use a 5/1 ARM with 5% + PMI if you like, but the # will come out quite close to using 0% down and 30 year fixed. I’m only using your #, so which is it? Does it pencil out in 1997 or not? OK, lets use your $390k. With the 3% inflation, you’re looking at $540k + $50k of improvement = $590k. $590k @ 6.5% & 0% down = $3700/month.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.[/quote]
If you noticed, I didn’t mentioned MM at all. I didn’t compare this area to MM, since MM doesn’t have 3000 sq-ft house. Comparing it to MM would be apple to orange comparison. However, since you brought up schools as the main premium reason vs MM, when comparing schools in SFT vs MM, here’s the 2007 API # for Whites in Mission Estancia Elementary School: 917. Based in the API # for the Asian & White students at Sandburg Elementary: 890 & 895 respectively. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at Diegueno Middle School: 895. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at Challenger Middle School: 894 & 830. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at La Costa Canyon High: 832. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at MMHS: 798 & 787.

I didn’t state the Asian # for SFT schools because those schools are predominantly White. But since I’m Asian, the Asian API schools of MM is what matter to me. based on 2007 API school of Asians in MM vs Whites in SFT, in Elementary schools, MM is lower by 27 points. In Middle schools, MM is ~= to SFT and in High School, they’re lower by 34 points. Those # are hardly dramatic enough to merit the premium you give it based on schools alone. Also, these Asian students in MM, a good portion of them are learning English as their second language, which means their English scores would be lower. That alone, would be a good explanation for the slightly lower API score.

But I would compare this area to PQ, CMR, RB, & CV. Those areas all have better school than this area in the HS level. Although this area is closer to the beach than the 1st 3 areas, depending on where you work, these 3 areas are most likely be closer to high tech jobs.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]AN
It sold for 395K not 380 and it required about 50K (in 1997 dollars) to get it to completed to where it is today. Rent on that house would be $3500 pretty easy, maybe a touch more.

People who buy homes like this arent doing 100% financing and typically put down at least 20%.

Homes like that never got to rental value last time and they wont this time. The home I bought in 1997 was much smaller and less expensive. Smaller and less expensive homes pencil out much better than larger, detached homes.[/quote]

Wasn’t this your quote?

[quote=sdrealtor]CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.[/quote]

If you like, I can use a 5/1 ARM with 5% + PMI if you like, but the # will come out quite close to using 0% down and 30 year fixed. I’m only using your #, so which is it? Does it pencil out in 1997 or not? OK, lets use your $390k. With the 3% inflation, you’re looking at $540k + $50k of improvement = $590k. $590k @ 6.5% & 0% down = $3700/month.

[quote=sdrealtor]There is an ownership premium for a house in a location like that which you typically wont find in a place like Mira Mesa. The rules are a bit different for this area than MM. Not completely different but definitely not the same either. For example, you would likely pay over 10K a year for private schools of the quality that these schools are. You would also spend time and money getting your kids to those private schools which are far from your home while these folks have kids walk to from Kindergarten through High School Graduation.[/quote]
If you noticed, I didn’t mentioned MM at all. I didn’t compare this area to MM, since MM doesn’t have 3000 sq-ft house. Comparing it to MM would be apple to orange comparison. However, since you brought up schools as the main premium reason vs MM, when comparing schools in SFT vs MM, here’s the 2007 API # for Whites in Mission Estancia Elementary School: 917. Based in the API # for the Asian & White students at Sandburg Elementary: 890 & 895 respectively. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at Diegueno Middle School: 895. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at Challenger Middle School: 894 & 830. Here’s the 2007 API # for White students at La Costa Canyon High: 832. Here’s the 2007 API # for Asian & White students at MMHS: 798 & 787.

I didn’t state the Asian # for SFT schools because those schools are predominantly White. But since I’m Asian, the Asian API schools of MM is what matter to me. based on 2007 API school of Asians in MM vs Whites in SFT, in Elementary schools, MM is lower by 27 points. In Middle schools, MM is ~= to SFT and in High School, they’re lower by 34 points. Those # are hardly dramatic enough to merit the premium you give it based on schools alone. Also, these Asian students in MM, a good portion of them are learning English as their second language, which means their English scores would be lower. That alone, would be a good explanation for the slightly lower API score.

But I would compare this area to PQ, CMR, RB, & CV. Those areas all have better school than this area in the HS level. Although this area is closer to the beach than the 1st 3 areas, depending on where you work, these 3 areas are most likely be closer to high tech jobs.

[sdrealtor]

AN
My comment was not a knock on MM but rather a reference to the area you follow like a hawk and base your conclusions on. I also suspect the schools you are referencing are in Northwest MM (more the exception than the rule in MM) which are probably alot further from penciling than the SE MM homes which already do.

In case you missed it, I clarified my post which was admittedly not clear. While some homes rent vs by made sense in my area in 1997 (I bought one) homes like the one we are discussing never did. Bigger nicer homes rarely cash flow and probably wont in NW MM either. The homes which cash flow are small, low end properties like 3BR/2BA 1100 sq ft homes in SE MM.

Lastly the school for that home is OPE (Olivehain Pioneer and the API score is 931. 40 points is a big margin. Its the difference between very good schools and the creme of the crop. People who can afford it will overpay for the best…. always have and always will. It’s part of the ownership premium for an area like this.

BTW, I have great respect for your culture as they place a huge emphasis on education and value it greatly like my own.

[sdrealtor]

AN
My comment was not a knock on MM but rather a reference to the area you follow like a hawk and base your conclusions on. I also suspect the schools you are referencing are in Northwest MM (more the exception than the rule in MM) which are probably alot further from penciling than the SE MM homes which already do.

In case you missed it, I clarified my post which was admittedly not clear. While some homes rent vs by made sense in my area in 1997 (I bought one) homes like the one we are discussing never did. Bigger nicer homes rarely cash flow and probably wont in NW MM either. The homes which cash flow are small, low end properties like 3BR/2BA 1100 sq ft homes in SE MM.

Lastly the school for that home is OPE (Olivehain Pioneer and the API score is 931. 40 points is a big margin. Its the difference between very good schools and the creme of the crop. People who can afford it will overpay for the best…. always have and always will. It’s part of the ownership premium for an area like this.

BTW, I have great respect for your culture as they place a huge emphasis on education and value it greatly like my own.

[sdrealtor]

AN
My comment was not a knock on MM but rather a reference to the area you follow like a hawk and base your conclusions on. I also suspect the schools you are referencing are in Northwest MM (more the exception than the rule in MM) which are probably alot further from penciling than the SE MM homes which already do.

In case you missed it, I clarified my post which was admittedly not clear. While some homes rent vs by made sense in my area in 1997 (I bought one) homes like the one we are discussing never did. Bigger nicer homes rarely cash flow and probably wont in NW MM either. The homes which cash flow are small, low end properties like 3BR/2BA 1100 sq ft homes in SE MM.

Lastly the school for that home is OPE (Olivehain Pioneer and the API score is 931. 40 points is a big margin. Its the difference between very good schools and the creme of the crop. People who can afford it will overpay for the best…. always have and always will. It’s part of the ownership premium for an area like this.

BTW, I have great respect for your culture as they place a huge emphasis on education and value it greatly like my own.

[sdrealtor]

AN
My comment was not a knock on MM but rather a reference to the area you follow like a hawk and base your conclusions on. I also suspect the schools you are referencing are in Northwest MM (more the exception than the rule in MM) which are probably alot further from penciling than the SE MM homes which already do.

In case you missed it, I clarified my post which was admittedly not clear. While some homes rent vs by made sense in my area in 1997 (I bought one) homes like the one we are discussing never did. Bigger nicer homes rarely cash flow and probably wont in NW MM either. The homes which cash flow are small, low end properties like 3BR/2BA 1100 sq ft homes in SE MM.

Lastly the school for that home is OPE (Olivehain Pioneer and the API score is 931. 40 points is a big margin. Its the difference between very good schools and the creme of the crop. People who can afford it will overpay for the best…. always have and always will. It’s part of the ownership premium for an area like this.

BTW, I have great respect for your culture as they place a huge emphasis on education and value it greatly like my own.

[Author]

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