San Diego July Numbers by Zip Code

[SD Realtor]

It probably does not merit a new thread but here is a link to the Dataquick site that has San Diego July numbers designated by zip codes.

http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSDUT.shtm

[La Jolla Renter]

Something must be wrong with dataquick numbers;)

If La Jolla real-estate is “no brainer” and can never go down, then how can SFR be down YOY for July?

La Jolla 92037 22 $1,515,000 -33.4%

This will shock some of my neighbors.

[sdrealtor]

[JES]

I pulled some of the more ‘impressive’ ones below:
“San Diego housing never goes down, buy now…”

Single family resale prices, compared to July 2005
LaJolla -33.4%
Ocean Beach -34.1%
Point Loma -26%
Boulevard -31.6%
Univ. City -15.8%
Ranch SD -19%
S San Marcos -3.4%
E Vista -8.7%

All Home Sales, Including New/Resale Homes and Condos
LaJolla -12.4%
Ocean Beach -17.3%
Point Loma -28.6%
Boulevard -31.6%
Univ. City -24.6%
Ranch SD -17.4%
S San Marcos -18.6%
E Vista -8.9%

[powayseller]

How could Escondido and Poway go up by over 20%? Obviously, another median problem. More high end sales.

[sdrealtor]

Is 4S considered Poway? If so it could be due to lots of 4S homes or other recent new construction hitting the market that wasnt on the market a year or 2 ago because it was still new construction. oh the woes of RE stats!

[no_such_reality]

How late did Poway start the run up?

By these numbers either July of last year was really bad in Poway or they came to the runup game late. Median sale last year had to be $596K.

Or there’s bad data somewhere.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

One of the real problems is that Monthly Year-over-year numbers are very noisy. Forget for the moment the previously discussed flaws in the median versus Case-Shiller or other index.
The following will be true for any monthly index.

Problem #1. You are starting with a monthly number that varies a lot because of small sample size.

Problem #2. You are taking a difference of two different monthly numbers. Anyone who took (or more precisely remembers ) statistics can tell you that differencing two noisy estimates results in an even noisier estimate.

Example.
The monthly yeay-on-year change in 92106 (Point Loma) for July ’06 according to DQnews was -26%. However, for June ’06 this number was +7.9%.

Last month would we be asking why and trying to explain why the price in Point Loma is still increasing ???

Be careful when considering these monthly numbers to justify anything.

[JES]

Good points!

I don’t have the data, but I wonder what the July 2005 data looked like compared to July 2004. I bet all the places I listed were up 10-30%.

I think this data comparing July 06′ to 05′ is valid in that it portrays a picture of:

1) Generally declining prices. Some are up, but the trend is that almost all are down and some are down alot.
2) Steep declines in condo prices in most areas.
3) Steep declines in new home/condo communities – look at 92078. Prices for all new are down a whopping 30%! San Elijo is in this area code! And look at 92009, Carlsbad, down 10% for new homes/condos. Wheras in the same area code, resale was up and overall was even up. This includes Bressi Ranch!
4) LaJolla – Overall down 12% was based on 54 sales, not a small nor insignificant number. -33% for resales was based on 22 SFR sales, still not a small number IMO.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

JES –

You are correct that the overall numbers were up 10-30% in general and are now negative in the cited areas. It’s pretty clear in the data that there was a break point sometime in 2005 for some areas.

Generally I agree with your assessments on points 1,2 , 3, &4. But be very very careful when parsing down to the zip code level.

Consider that DQ reported that La Jolla was up 66.8 % in May 2006 over May 2005. And that was on 26 sales!
UP 66.8% WOW !

Dozens of sales in a single month still may not be enough in some cases. You need to smooth out the month-to-month variations.

You can find the numbers from past years as published in the U-T (data from DQ) on the web:
http://realestate.signonsandiego.com/area_homesales/pastyears.php

We should either average over longer periods/larger regions, or consider the time history to get a feel for the amount of variation. The chart below gives a feel for the flucuation in a few of the areas. This is the median price for select zip codes in La Jolla, Point Loma and Poway.

Notice that the fluctuations about the trend lines that I placed are up to +/-20%. I drew in the trend lines to correspond to June-June for each year (Chart covers June 04 through June 05).

As a side note, the coastal zip codes appear to have topped out well before Poway, where the trend (in the rear-view mirror of the median price) was still rising in 2006 and the downturn there will likely just begin to show up over the next few months.

[img_assist|nid=1248|title=Selected Median Prices|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]

[no_such_reality]

Dang, it’s a shame they stopped reporting the more useful numbers. Is this just a last month thing? Previously, they had high/low and median for each.

It’s an eye opener looking back to August ’98 and seeing Poway with 68 SFR sales. Median – $230,000. Low – $113,000. High – $1,275,000. Or even Escondido – 176 SFR sales Median $182,500, but high was $740,000 and the low was $70,000.

[powayseller]

FormerSanDiegan, I am so impressed when people put data into spreadsheets and paste the images on a forum. I hope I can figure out how to do that.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

PS –

It’s easy.
Here’s how … (with Windows)

1. Display your plot on your screen.
2. Press ALT-PrtScr (Hold down Alt and press the print screen button).
3. Paste the plot into Paint (or any other image manipulation program)
4. Crop to size
5. Save as JPEG

6. Press Add-Image button just below the edit window and upload your image.

and … voila

[img_assist|nid=1255|title=Mr Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=321|height=400]

[bmarum]

Former SanDiegan,

Great points, and thanks for the charts and the link. My memory of college statistics is vague — thanks for the refresher.

[no_such_reality]

Oh boy, I just laughed so hard I think I have to pee.

[Author]

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