San Diego Home Price Index Blog

[sdrealtor]

I was reading the following blog which I believe belongs to our own “esmith”. It tracks a case-shiller type index for San Diego County by submarket which is not available elsewhere and to date it has proven pretty accurate. Here’s the link:

http://sdhpi.blogspot.com/

I was reading his latest entry and came upon an analysis which suggested that some submarkets were already underpriced by the following criteria:

Interest rates are about as high today as they were in August-September of ’02 (except jumbos). If we assume that houses were fairly valued back then, and add 3% average annual inflation, we get this for current valuations.

Most Battered Markets in County
Clairemont/Mira Mesa – 3% underpriced
North of 78 (East Oceanside/North Vista) – 10% underpriced
54 to 94 – 15% underpriced
Eastlake/Otay – 8% underpriced.

Strong Markets in County
Carmel Valley/4s/scripps – 40% overpriced
Encinitas/ So Carlsbad – 36% overpriced
RB/PQ – 28% overpriced

Has anyoner else read this blog? If not, take a look and I’d be interested as to what others think about his assumptions and results.

[sdrealtor]

I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.

[sdrealtor]

I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.

[sdrealtor]

I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.

[sdrealtor]

I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.

[sdrealtor]

I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.

[jficquette]

[quote=sdrealtor]I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.[/quote]

My guess is that prices need to fall to 1998 levels before it is considered a fair value.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=sdrealtor]I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.[/quote]

My guess is that prices need to fall to 1998 levels before it is considered a fair value.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=sdrealtor]I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.[/quote]

My guess is that prices need to fall to 1998 levels before it is considered a fair value.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=sdrealtor]I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.[/quote]

My guess is that prices need to fall to 1998 levels before it is considered a fair value.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=sdrealtor]I guess the first point of contention would be if homes were fairly valued back in mid 2002.[/quote]

My guess is that prices need to fall to 1998 levels before it is considered a fair value.

John

[temeculaguy]

I like the site, thanks for the link. If it is esmith, nice work, again. In his writings he links ocrenter on BMIT, another nice piece of work, I need to get out more and see what others are doing. Both have more credibility every time I look at their work. When this housing bubble is all over with there will be a serious waste of writing talent, these guys make newspaper reporters look like third graders with crayons.

So if I read the analysis correctly, the last bastions of high pricing are set up for a fall and my beloved outskirts doesn’t have many exciting things in store for me, oh well. It’s not like things will be turning around anytime soon, especially if CV and the coast goes into the tank and gas breaks $5, I’ll be O.K. and you 52 corridor folks will have a nice year watching it fall.

[temeculaguy]

I like the site, thanks for the link. If it is esmith, nice work, again. In his writings he links ocrenter on BMIT, another nice piece of work, I need to get out more and see what others are doing. Both have more credibility every time I look at their work. When this housing bubble is all over with there will be a serious waste of writing talent, these guys make newspaper reporters look like third graders with crayons.

So if I read the analysis correctly, the last bastions of high pricing are set up for a fall and my beloved outskirts doesn’t have many exciting things in store for me, oh well. It’s not like things will be turning around anytime soon, especially if CV and the coast goes into the tank and gas breaks $5, I’ll be O.K. and you 52 corridor folks will have a nice year watching it fall.

[temeculaguy]

I like the site, thanks for the link. If it is esmith, nice work, again. In his writings he links ocrenter on BMIT, another nice piece of work, I need to get out more and see what others are doing. Both have more credibility every time I look at their work. When this housing bubble is all over with there will be a serious waste of writing talent, these guys make newspaper reporters look like third graders with crayons.

So if I read the analysis correctly, the last bastions of high pricing are set up for a fall and my beloved outskirts doesn’t have many exciting things in store for me, oh well. It’s not like things will be turning around anytime soon, especially if CV and the coast goes into the tank and gas breaks $5, I’ll be O.K. and you 52 corridor folks will have a nice year watching it fall.

[temeculaguy]

I like the site, thanks for the link. If it is esmith, nice work, again. In his writings he links ocrenter on BMIT, another nice piece of work, I need to get out more and see what others are doing. Both have more credibility every time I look at their work. When this housing bubble is all over with there will be a serious waste of writing talent, these guys make newspaper reporters look like third graders with crayons.

So if I read the analysis correctly, the last bastions of high pricing are set up for a fall and my beloved outskirts doesn’t have many exciting things in store for me, oh well. It’s not like things will be turning around anytime soon, especially if CV and the coast goes into the tank and gas breaks $5, I’ll be O.K. and you 52 corridor folks will have a nice year watching it fall.

[Author]

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