Home › Forums › Housing › Remember the Cal Poly Professor who wrote a paper refuting the housing bubble?
- This topic has 45 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 5 months ago by
Ex-SD.
-
AuthorPosts
-
March 17, 2008 at 5:04 PM #12149March 17, 2008 at 6:29 PM #171952
Rich Toscano
KeymasterHere it is in all its glory:
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/GarySmith/SoCalHousingBubble.pdf
If I recall, this paper argued that since home prices always went up, it wasn’t actually expensive to buy homes because you’d get capital gains. I don’t remember if I wrote about it but I did lambast a paper making the same ridiculous argument written by three dudes from the Wharton School, Columbia, and the NY Fed.
http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/Housing-Bubble-Himmelberg-Mayer-Sinai-wp-09-07-2005.pdf
(shorter and more arrogant WSJ editorial version here): http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/WSJ_Bubble_Trouble.pdfOnce again, these were high profile economics professors/PhDs making the argument that homes were cheap because the apparently guaranteed capital gains would pay back buyers’ costs! Pathetic. My rebuttals:
Rich
March 17, 2008 at 6:29 PM #172390Rich Toscano
KeymasterHere it is in all its glory:
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/GarySmith/SoCalHousingBubble.pdf
If I recall, this paper argued that since home prices always went up, it wasn’t actually expensive to buy homes because you’d get capital gains. I don’t remember if I wrote about it but I did lambast a paper making the same ridiculous argument written by three dudes from the Wharton School, Columbia, and the NY Fed.
http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/Housing-Bubble-Himmelberg-Mayer-Sinai-wp-09-07-2005.pdf
(shorter and more arrogant WSJ editorial version here): http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/WSJ_Bubble_Trouble.pdfOnce again, these were high profile economics professors/PhDs making the argument that homes were cheap because the apparently guaranteed capital gains would pay back buyers’ costs! Pathetic. My rebuttals:
Rich
March 17, 2008 at 6:29 PM #172310Rich Toscano
KeymasterHere it is in all its glory:
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/GarySmith/SoCalHousingBubble.pdf
If I recall, this paper argued that since home prices always went up, it wasn’t actually expensive to buy homes because you’d get capital gains. I don’t remember if I wrote about it but I did lambast a paper making the same ridiculous argument written by three dudes from the Wharton School, Columbia, and the NY Fed.
http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/Housing-Bubble-Himmelberg-Mayer-Sinai-wp-09-07-2005.pdf
(shorter and more arrogant WSJ editorial version here): http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/WSJ_Bubble_Trouble.pdfOnce again, these were high profile economics professors/PhDs making the argument that homes were cheap because the apparently guaranteed capital gains would pay back buyers’ costs! Pathetic. My rebuttals:
Rich
March 17, 2008 at 6:29 PM #172285Rich Toscano
KeymasterHere it is in all its glory:
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/GarySmith/SoCalHousingBubble.pdf
If I recall, this paper argued that since home prices always went up, it wasn’t actually expensive to buy homes because you’d get capital gains. I don’t remember if I wrote about it but I did lambast a paper making the same ridiculous argument written by three dudes from the Wharton School, Columbia, and the NY Fed.
http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/Housing-Bubble-Himmelberg-Mayer-Sinai-wp-09-07-2005.pdf
(shorter and more arrogant WSJ editorial version here): http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/WSJ_Bubble_Trouble.pdfOnce again, these were high profile economics professors/PhDs making the argument that homes were cheap because the apparently guaranteed capital gains would pay back buyers’ costs! Pathetic. My rebuttals:
Rich
March 17, 2008 at 6:29 PM #172290Rich Toscano
KeymasterHere it is in all its glory:
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/GarySmith/SoCalHousingBubble.pdf
If I recall, this paper argued that since home prices always went up, it wasn’t actually expensive to buy homes because you’d get capital gains. I don’t remember if I wrote about it but I did lambast a paper making the same ridiculous argument written by three dudes from the Wharton School, Columbia, and the NY Fed.
http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/Housing-Bubble-Himmelberg-Mayer-Sinai-wp-09-07-2005.pdf
(shorter and more arrogant WSJ editorial version here): http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~sinai/papers/WSJ_Bubble_Trouble.pdfOnce again, these were high profile economics professors/PhDs making the argument that homes were cheap because the apparently guaranteed capital gains would pay back buyers’ costs! Pathetic. My rebuttals:
Rich
March 17, 2008 at 6:50 PM #171962Deal Hunter
ParticipantPhDs have no relevance in the markets. Remember the “geniuses” at LTCM? They were from Harvard and MIT. Then there’s “professor” Bernanke.
March 17, 2008 at 6:50 PM #172321Deal Hunter
ParticipantPhDs have no relevance in the markets. Remember the “geniuses” at LTCM? They were from Harvard and MIT. Then there’s “professor” Bernanke.
March 17, 2008 at 6:50 PM #172400Deal Hunter
ParticipantPhDs have no relevance in the markets. Remember the “geniuses” at LTCM? They were from Harvard and MIT. Then there’s “professor” Bernanke.
March 17, 2008 at 6:50 PM #172294Deal Hunter
ParticipantPhDs have no relevance in the markets. Remember the “geniuses” at LTCM? They were from Harvard and MIT. Then there’s “professor” Bernanke.
March 17, 2008 at 6:50 PM #172300Deal Hunter
ParticipantPhDs have no relevance in the markets. Remember the “geniuses” at LTCM? They were from Harvard and MIT. Then there’s “professor” Bernanke.
March 17, 2008 at 6:59 PM #172306temeculaguy
ParticipantThe original paper wasn’t from Cal poly anything, it was from Pomona College (1500 student liberal arts college), and of the three authors, only Gary Smith is still listed on the website as part of the faculty. Maybe the other two went full time into real estate.
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/staff.html
At least they acknowleged in their introduction that UCLA, Yale and Princeton professors all argue there is a bubble, but of course they must be smarter because room and board is 50k a year, just like the big boys. If those were my professors I would demand a refund. I’ve always maintained that the only skills I retained from college were research and filtering (learning to filter through all the crap that most professors spew).
I’d almost expect it from an obscure college smaller than most high schools, but the knuckleheads at Wharton have me suspicious that they were vying for a new building, maybe the Mozillo wing was on the drawing board.
March 17, 2008 at 6:59 PM #172331temeculaguy
ParticipantThe original paper wasn’t from Cal poly anything, it was from Pomona College (1500 student liberal arts college), and of the three authors, only Gary Smith is still listed on the website as part of the faculty. Maybe the other two went full time into real estate.
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/staff.html
At least they acknowleged in their introduction that UCLA, Yale and Princeton professors all argue there is a bubble, but of course they must be smarter because room and board is 50k a year, just like the big boys. If those were my professors I would demand a refund. I’ve always maintained that the only skills I retained from college were research and filtering (learning to filter through all the crap that most professors spew).
I’d almost expect it from an obscure college smaller than most high schools, but the knuckleheads at Wharton have me suspicious that they were vying for a new building, maybe the Mozillo wing was on the drawing board.
March 17, 2008 at 6:59 PM #172308temeculaguy
ParticipantThe original paper wasn’t from Cal poly anything, it was from Pomona College (1500 student liberal arts college), and of the three authors, only Gary Smith is still listed on the website as part of the faculty. Maybe the other two went full time into real estate.
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/staff.html
At least they acknowleged in their introduction that UCLA, Yale and Princeton professors all argue there is a bubble, but of course they must be smarter because room and board is 50k a year, just like the big boys. If those were my professors I would demand a refund. I’ve always maintained that the only skills I retained from college were research and filtering (learning to filter through all the crap that most professors spew).
I’d almost expect it from an obscure college smaller than most high schools, but the knuckleheads at Wharton have me suspicious that they were vying for a new building, maybe the Mozillo wing was on the drawing board.
March 17, 2008 at 6:59 PM #172410temeculaguy
ParticipantThe original paper wasn’t from Cal poly anything, it was from Pomona College (1500 student liberal arts college), and of the three authors, only Gary Smith is still listed on the website as part of the faculty. Maybe the other two went full time into real estate.
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/staff.html
At least they acknowleged in their introduction that UCLA, Yale and Princeton professors all argue there is a bubble, but of course they must be smarter because room and board is 50k a year, just like the big boys. If those were my professors I would demand a refund. I’ve always maintained that the only skills I retained from college were research and filtering (learning to filter through all the crap that most professors spew).
I’d almost expect it from an obscure college smaller than most high schools, but the knuckleheads at Wharton have me suspicious that they were vying for a new building, maybe the Mozillo wing was on the drawing board.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.