REFI/10y note relationship

[vizcaya]

I have been pulling my hair out on when I should REFI. I applied for a REFI twice in the last 2 months, and cancelled due to locking in too soon, then to see rates drop.

My question is, is there a way of determining if rates are going up or going down, or staying the same.

For me, I see what the TEN Year Treasury note is doing. (^TNX). It seems to tell me what rates will do the following day. On Tuesday the Ten year dropped about .10, This drop translated into a .25 drop in the 30yr fixed conforming rate on Wed. Today the 10 yr has dropped about .16 as of mid morning on Wed. Therefore I am assuming the 30 yr fixed should drop another .25 percent on Thursday.

Using the graphs at Bankrate.com , I see that in the last 5 years, the 30 year fixed dipped to below 5%, around 2002-2003, the 10 yr at that time had dipped just below 3.2 index value.

Today we are at 3.3 index value.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Fearful]

The question was whether long term rates would go up, down or not change.

10 year treasuries have recently dropped substantially in yield. The only way that is sustainable is if inflation expectations have gone way down. That is possible; deflation is definitely possible.

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized, or we go in to deflation.

Otherwise, especially given the outlook on the housing market, declining mortgage rates make no economic sense.

[kev374]

At Countrywide Bank..

3 mo. CD is at 4.75%
High Yield Savings is at 5%

Can you say Inverted Yield Curve!! Where is the recession already??

[kev374]

At Countrywide Bank..

3 mo. CD is at 4.75%
High Yield Savings is at 5%

Can you say Inverted Yield Curve!! Where is the recession already??

[kev374]

At Countrywide Bank..

3 mo. CD is at 4.75%
High Yield Savings is at 5%

Can you say Inverted Yield Curve!! Where is the recession already??

[kev374]

At Countrywide Bank..

3 mo. CD is at 4.75%
High Yield Savings is at 5%

Can you say Inverted Yield Curve!! Where is the recession already??

[kev374]

At Countrywide Bank..

3 mo. CD is at 4.75%
High Yield Savings is at 5%

Can you say Inverted Yield Curve!! Where is the recession already??

[SD Realtor]

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized…..

hehehehe…

fearful one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such… and just wait until hillary is the president…

in the immortal words of keith jackson… whooooooaaaa nelly!

SD Realtor

[Fearful]

one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such…
I am Fearful that you are right … when we nationalize mortgages in order to keep the bubble inflated, where do we end?

[Fearful]

one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such…
I am Fearful that you are right … when we nationalize mortgages in order to keep the bubble inflated, where do we end?

[Fearful]

one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such…
I am Fearful that you are right … when we nationalize mortgages in order to keep the bubble inflated, where do we end?

[Fearful]

one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such…
I am Fearful that you are right … when we nationalize mortgages in order to keep the bubble inflated, where do we end?

[Fearful]

one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such…
I am Fearful that you are right … when we nationalize mortgages in order to keep the bubble inflated, where do we end?

[SD Realtor]

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized…..

hehehehe…

fearful one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such… and just wait until hillary is the president…

in the immortal words of keith jackson… whooooooaaaa nelly!

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized…..

hehehehe…

fearful one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such… and just wait until hillary is the president…

in the immortal words of keith jackson… whooooooaaaa nelly!

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized…..

hehehehe…

fearful one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such… and just wait until hillary is the president…

in the immortal words of keith jackson… whooooooaaaa nelly!

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized…..

hehehehe…

fearful one may argue we are already halfway there with the FHA and such… and just wait until hillary is the president…

in the immortal words of keith jackson… whooooooaaaa nelly!

SD Realtor

[Fearful]

The question was whether long term rates would go up, down or not change.

10 year treasuries have recently dropped substantially in yield. The only way that is sustainable is if inflation expectations have gone way down. That is possible; deflation is definitely possible.

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized, or we go in to deflation.

Otherwise, especially given the outlook on the housing market, declining mortgage rates make no economic sense.

[Fearful]

The question was whether long term rates would go up, down or not change.

10 year treasuries have recently dropped substantially in yield. The only way that is sustainable is if inflation expectations have gone way down. That is possible; deflation is definitely possible.

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized, or we go in to deflation.

Otherwise, especially given the outlook on the housing market, declining mortgage rates make no economic sense.

[Fearful]

The question was whether long term rates would go up, down or not change.

10 year treasuries have recently dropped substantially in yield. The only way that is sustainable is if inflation expectations have gone way down. That is possible; deflation is definitely possible.

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized, or we go in to deflation.

Otherwise, especially given the outlook on the housing market, declining mortgage rates make no economic sense.

[Fearful]

The question was whether long term rates would go up, down or not change.

10 year treasuries have recently dropped substantially in yield. The only way that is sustainable is if inflation expectations have gone way down. That is possible; deflation is definitely possible.

The only way mortgage rates will remain low is if mortgages are nationalized, or we go in to deflation.

Otherwise, especially given the outlook on the housing market, declining mortgage rates make no economic sense.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[asragov]

Mish had a very good post recently about the behavior of various interest rates:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/select-few-are-helped-by-rate-drop.html

BTW, his thesis is that rates will continue to fall as the US experiences deflation, and the dollar will rise in value vs. the Euro and many currencies (the Yen will rise vs. everyone).

The securitization of mortgages and funding of banks has effectively already been nationalized. Banks are borrowing to fund their operations from the Federal Home Loan Bank system like never before, and Fannie and Freddie are the only places to sell your conforming mortgages.

If the conforming limit is raised significantly, you won’t have much more possibility of government involvement in finance and banking for Bush’s successor, irrespective of party. We are nearly there …

[treylane]

Mish’s crazy rantings keep me up at night…

[treylane]

Mish’s crazy rantings keep me up at night…

[treylane]

Mish’s crazy rantings keep me up at night…

[treylane]

Mish’s crazy rantings keep me up at night…

[treylane]

Mish’s crazy rantings keep me up at night…

[asragov]

Mish had a very good post recently about the behavior of various interest rates:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/select-few-are-helped-by-rate-drop.html

BTW, his thesis is that rates will continue to fall as the US experiences deflation, and the dollar will rise in value vs. the Euro and many currencies (the Yen will rise vs. everyone).

The securitization of mortgages and funding of banks has effectively already been nationalized. Banks are borrowing to fund their operations from the Federal Home Loan Bank system like never before, and Fannie and Freddie are the only places to sell your conforming mortgages.

If the conforming limit is raised significantly, you won’t have much more possibility of government involvement in finance and banking for Bush’s successor, irrespective of party. We are nearly there …

[asragov]

Mish had a very good post recently about the behavior of various interest rates:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/select-few-are-helped-by-rate-drop.html

BTW, his thesis is that rates will continue to fall as the US experiences deflation, and the dollar will rise in value vs. the Euro and many currencies (the Yen will rise vs. everyone).

The securitization of mortgages and funding of banks has effectively already been nationalized. Banks are borrowing to fund their operations from the Federal Home Loan Bank system like never before, and Fannie and Freddie are the only places to sell your conforming mortgages.

If the conforming limit is raised significantly, you won’t have much more possibility of government involvement in finance and banking for Bush’s successor, irrespective of party. We are nearly there …

[asragov]

Mish had a very good post recently about the behavior of various interest rates:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/select-few-are-helped-by-rate-drop.html

BTW, his thesis is that rates will continue to fall as the US experiences deflation, and the dollar will rise in value vs. the Euro and many currencies (the Yen will rise vs. everyone).

The securitization of mortgages and funding of banks has effectively already been nationalized. Banks are borrowing to fund their operations from the Federal Home Loan Bank system like never before, and Fannie and Freddie are the only places to sell your conforming mortgages.

If the conforming limit is raised significantly, you won’t have much more possibility of government involvement in finance and banking for Bush’s successor, irrespective of party. We are nearly there …

[asragov]

Mish had a very good post recently about the behavior of various interest rates:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/select-few-are-helped-by-rate-drop.html

BTW, his thesis is that rates will continue to fall as the US experiences deflation, and the dollar will rise in value vs. the Euro and many currencies (the Yen will rise vs. everyone).

The securitization of mortgages and funding of banks has effectively already been nationalized. Banks are borrowing to fund their operations from the Federal Home Loan Bank system like never before, and Fannie and Freddie are the only places to sell your conforming mortgages.

If the conforming limit is raised significantly, you won’t have much more possibility of government involvement in finance and banking for Bush’s successor, irrespective of party. We are nearly there …

[HLS]

VIZ,
Your theories are elementary at best.
YOU aren’t going to pick the bottom of the rates.

Your assumption is that rates will respond to previous days close of the 10 YR is only half correct.

The best lenders react to rate changes INTRA day.
People like you, and there are millions, are nothing more than prey to the predators in the industry.

30 YR fixed conforming rates were down to 4.75% yesterday, for about an hour. There were 4 intra-day rate changes yesterday.
The 30 YR closed at 5.375%

Most people get screwed on their loans, either in rate or fee or both. It’s just a fact. The majority of people who think they got a great deal, really didn’t.

Yesterday around 10am were the cheapest REAL rates in about 5 years, for the time being, you missed them.

[vizcaya]

Elementary is better than nothing. I followed what the 10yr was doing, and for this situation it worked for me.

My lender does Intra day adjustments, and as I was following what the 10yr was doing during the day(Wed), I saw my lender adjust rates. I went ahead and applied for a loan at 5.125 30 yr fixed. This was when the 10yr was at 3.35 .

This morning my lender has same the 30yr fixed at 6.00.

The 10 yr is up to 3.6.

[HLS]

A “no cost” 30 YR loan is 6% today.
The PAR rate was 5.375% this morning.

Glad that it worked out for you.

[HLS]

A “no cost” 30 YR loan is 6% today.
The PAR rate was 5.375% this morning.

Glad that it worked out for you.

[HLS]

A “no cost” 30 YR loan is 6% today.
The PAR rate was 5.375% this morning.

Glad that it worked out for you.

[HLS]

A “no cost” 30 YR loan is 6% today.
The PAR rate was 5.375% this morning.

Glad that it worked out for you.

[HLS]

A “no cost” 30 YR loan is 6% today.
The PAR rate was 5.375% this morning.

Glad that it worked out for you.

[vizcaya]

Elementary is better than nothing. I followed what the 10yr was doing, and for this situation it worked for me.

My lender does Intra day adjustments, and as I was following what the 10yr was doing during the day(Wed), I saw my lender adjust rates. I went ahead and applied for a loan at 5.125 30 yr fixed. This was when the 10yr was at 3.35 .

This morning my lender has same the 30yr fixed at 6.00.

The 10 yr is up to 3.6.

[vizcaya]

Elementary is better than nothing. I followed what the 10yr was doing, and for this situation it worked for me.

My lender does Intra day adjustments, and as I was following what the 10yr was doing during the day(Wed), I saw my lender adjust rates. I went ahead and applied for a loan at 5.125 30 yr fixed. This was when the 10yr was at 3.35 .

This morning my lender has same the 30yr fixed at 6.00.

The 10 yr is up to 3.6.

[vizcaya]

Elementary is better than nothing. I followed what the 10yr was doing, and for this situation it worked for me.

My lender does Intra day adjustments, and as I was following what the 10yr was doing during the day(Wed), I saw my lender adjust rates. I went ahead and applied for a loan at 5.125 30 yr fixed. This was when the 10yr was at 3.35 .

This morning my lender has same the 30yr fixed at 6.00.

The 10 yr is up to 3.6.

[vizcaya]

Elementary is better than nothing. I followed what the 10yr was doing, and for this situation it worked for me.

My lender does Intra day adjustments, and as I was following what the 10yr was doing during the day(Wed), I saw my lender adjust rates. I went ahead and applied for a loan at 5.125 30 yr fixed. This was when the 10yr was at 3.35 .

This morning my lender has same the 30yr fixed at 6.00.

The 10 yr is up to 3.6.

[HLS]

VIZ,
Your theories are elementary at best.
YOU aren’t going to pick the bottom of the rates.

Your assumption is that rates will respond to previous days close of the 10 YR is only half correct.

The best lenders react to rate changes INTRA day.
People like you, and there are millions, are nothing more than prey to the predators in the industry.

30 YR fixed conforming rates were down to 4.75% yesterday, for about an hour. There were 4 intra-day rate changes yesterday.
The 30 YR closed at 5.375%

Most people get screwed on their loans, either in rate or fee or both. It’s just a fact. The majority of people who think they got a great deal, really didn’t.

Yesterday around 10am were the cheapest REAL rates in about 5 years, for the time being, you missed them.

[HLS]

VIZ,
Your theories are elementary at best.
YOU aren’t going to pick the bottom of the rates.

Your assumption is that rates will respond to previous days close of the 10 YR is only half correct.

The best lenders react to rate changes INTRA day.
People like you, and there are millions, are nothing more than prey to the predators in the industry.

30 YR fixed conforming rates were down to 4.75% yesterday, for about an hour. There were 4 intra-day rate changes yesterday.
The 30 YR closed at 5.375%

Most people get screwed on their loans, either in rate or fee or both. It’s just a fact. The majority of people who think they got a great deal, really didn’t.

Yesterday around 10am were the cheapest REAL rates in about 5 years, for the time being, you missed them.

[HLS]

VIZ,
Your theories are elementary at best.
YOU aren’t going to pick the bottom of the rates.

Your assumption is that rates will respond to previous days close of the 10 YR is only half correct.

The best lenders react to rate changes INTRA day.
People like you, and there are millions, are nothing more than prey to the predators in the industry.

30 YR fixed conforming rates were down to 4.75% yesterday, for about an hour. There were 4 intra-day rate changes yesterday.
The 30 YR closed at 5.375%

Most people get screwed on their loans, either in rate or fee or both. It’s just a fact. The majority of people who think they got a great deal, really didn’t.

Yesterday around 10am were the cheapest REAL rates in about 5 years, for the time being, you missed them.

[HLS]

VIZ,
Your theories are elementary at best.
YOU aren’t going to pick the bottom of the rates.

Your assumption is that rates will respond to previous days close of the 10 YR is only half correct.

The best lenders react to rate changes INTRA day.
People like you, and there are millions, are nothing more than prey to the predators in the industry.

30 YR fixed conforming rates were down to 4.75% yesterday, for about an hour. There were 4 intra-day rate changes yesterday.
The 30 YR closed at 5.375%

Most people get screwed on their loans, either in rate or fee or both. It’s just a fact. The majority of people who think they got a great deal, really didn’t.

Yesterday around 10am were the cheapest REAL rates in about 5 years, for the time being, you missed them.

[Author]

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