Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Recent buys: Trump Warrants, Munis, Shorts
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gzz.
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May 7, 2022 at 5:37 PM #825434May 8, 2022 at 12:57 PM #825438
limkotir
ParticipantYou may appreciate Dave Lee on Investing, just be aware he’s a perma Tesla bull, while still does a good job presenting counter-arguments. In his this morning’s video, he addresses the Tesla vs. the combined top 12 auto makers’ market valuation topic:
Tesla Stock is Overvalued. Or Not. (Ep. 597):
May 9, 2022 at 10:55 AM #825454gzz
ParticipantMstr down 22% today, coin -18%, tesla -7%, sq -14%.
Maybe I can stay solvent longer than the market can be irrational!
May 9, 2022 at 10:56 AM #825455ParticipantDupe
May 9, 2022 at 12:02 PM #825456Participant[quote=gzz]Mstr down 22% today, coin -18%, tesla -7%, sq -14%.
Maybe I can stay solvent longer than the market can be irrational![/quote]
Keep clam and carry on. If you liked the prices you paid for those stocks before, you should love the current prices!
May 10, 2022 at 1:33 PM #825466ParticipantAy carumba!
My COIN puts purchased for ~$200 and sold for $500-1000 are now worth $5000-8000 each.
A 30-bagger, lost because of my tendency to “take profits.”
I am glad it is hard to sell RE, I probably would have panic sold something during the covid early days when I saw all the cell phone videos of people dropping dead in the streets in China and freaked me out.
May 11, 2022 at 9:42 AM #825480ParticipantCrypto is having a moment the last 24 hours and 7 days.
Luna / Terra (which was in the top 10 crypto by market value just days ago) crashed 99% at point, and its stable coin which is to peg 1:1 to the $1 USD, is trading at $0.59 to the dollar.
Last 5 days:
Peak: $77
Low: $0.70What a ride!!!!!!!!!
May 11, 2022 at 10:17 AM #825483ParticipantI followed that Terra Luna thing yesterday after never hearing of it before.
They are all technobabble ponzi schemes IMO. Terra like so many of them advertised “safe” 20% APR. Same MO as IceSave, Allen Sanford, and many other ponzis, even our local Capenella restaurant Ponzi scheme lady.
I covered 80% of my COIN short and 25% of my MSTR short and 75% of my SQ short.
My best short prices on Coin are 190 and 700s for MSTR. They are at the point where delaying capital gains taxes outweighs risk of holding them.
GO popped 16% today too and I exited 1/3 of my position. It is my favorite grocery all around and growing quickly, but it is no longer undervalued IMO.
May 11, 2022 at 10:26 AM #825484ParticipantMy conviction in energy stocks is growing. I don’t expect huge returns necessarily, but think the likelihood of the large and megacaps to go up 25% in 1-3 years is quite high. Meanwhile 4% dividends and huge share buybacks.
The moment China gives up its failing covid lockdowns, the world’s largest importer will suddenly see a wave of demand. Sanctions and loss of Western production parts and tech will squeeze then strangle Russian production. I think the decline curve will look like Venezuela’s.
May 13, 2022 at 10:27 PM #825582ParticipantI started another oil stock position in Repsol, the Spanish oil major. Half their production is in the USA and they refine and sell in Europe and Latin America. I also added this week two more Canadian oil majors, IMO and CNQ.
I dug up some supply numbers. The Ukraine war has caused Russian production to fall to an 18 year low, by roughly a million bbl /day. Meanwhile China’s covid lockdowns are reducing their imports by 1.2 million, almost a perfect cancellation. Russia production will keep declining, but China I imagine is going to join the rest of the world soon and end its lockdowns.
Buffet seems to agree. He now has 15% of OXY worth $9 billion and also keeps buying Chevron.
May 24, 2022 at 10:27 AM #825731ParticipantMy shorts listed in the post above are down today by ~10% for coin, rcl and mstr, 14% for lyft, 8% for dash and uber.
No longer short dash. I was also short SNAP a small amount and I covered the last bit of that old position when it dropped 40% this morning. Covered half of my lyft short.
My increasing bullishness on energy led me to buy XOM calls today dated mostly mid-August.
I also purchased some long and deeply out of the money puts in AAPL and several Taiwanese companies because I am worried about a Chinese invasion. The $250 I spent is a little insurance policy.
May 24, 2022 at 12:57 PM #825732ParticipantSometimes investing isn’t hard intellectually, the hard part is sticking to your guns.
I am getting that kind of conviction now on oil stocks.
People are already starting to pile into them, but their firehose gusher profits, real actual profit not techco “pro forma” profit, is so high they still have very low multiples.
The only real issue oilcos have is political risk and cost inflation.
But political risk can be largely avoided by sticking to companies focused on the US and Canada, and also by just keeping a diverse portfolio. And cost inflation only matters if they want to ramp up production. For milking existing wells, inflation is a benefit since capital costs are baked in at old prices and marginal costs are small.
The spike in natural gas costs in Europe the past year has been stunning, and barely put a dent in demand. I believe we’ll see this worldwide over the next year with oil and NGLs.
On top of these profits, refining margins I believe will also increase. Nobody in their right mind would build a big new refinery if it were even possible, making the existing ones more valuable each year.
May 24, 2022 at 2:42 PM #825737sdrealtor
ParticipantYou have a higher risk appetite than I do being so focussed and trying to time things. I have a well modeled widely diversified portfolio set up and managed by Merrill. For years my XOM and ENB lagged. Each year I would ask during my annual review whether we should get rid of it. The answer was always let the dividends build your position over time at these low valuations and their day will come. The number of share has probably doubled since Ive held it and now their day has come. Thats why I beleive in hiring professionals for important jobs that involve lots of money
Ironically the one energy company I got rid of has done nothing and it was the right call. Sold it about 3 years ago. Im not gonna claim any credit though. It was Kinder Morgan and they sent me a K-1 each year with international income. I got rid of it because I do my own taxes and hated dealing with that each year. Better lucky than good
August 26, 2022 at 4:46 PM #826637ParticipantUPDATE:
Taking a huge bath on the Trump company warrants, DWACW. Still holding. I made a crazy and realized profit the first day of trading, like 6k, but down 10k since so about -4k total.
COIN: Amazing short, amazing profits on the puts. Still holding a small short position mainly to delay capgains.
MSTR: What should have been a large profit is only a small one due to poor timing in increasing and decreasing my position.
RCL: Big profits! Closed short out completely.
UBER/LYFT: keeping small short position mainly to delay taxes. The most obvious shorts ever. The largest money incineration factories in Wall Street history.
IRBT: AMZN is buying them! I purchased thinking it would be GOOG that bought them. Small profit below market returns due to poor entry timing.
YNDX/RSX: Frozen due to Russia sanctions. At one point down 90%, now down about 50%.
INTC/GOOG between the two, roughly breakeven.
WE: Just closed the position for a large profit. Should have been even larger, the company is worth 0. But it is heavily shorted and at risk of becoming a meme stock.
NVDA: Shorted 15 shares yesterday. Closed position today, ~$220 profit!
August 26, 2022 at 4:52 PM #826638ParticipantOil Update: Not great returns, but still beating the market. I remain very bullish. Had to sell a little to fund a home downpayment. I replaced my first round of ultrabullish call options that expired worthless. These new calls have already doubled.
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