“INVESTORS” who haven’t learned their lessons?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=carlsbadworker]I think TG brought up a good point. As I remember for the survey “where you are here”, many of you claim that you are here to learn. I enjoy learning and the best method that I have found is to come up with a theory (or accept an existing theory), set out expectation based on such theory and then constantly check the reality with the expectation and modify the theory accordly.
So what do we have here? We have a decrease of inventory that was completely out of our expectation if we ask any of you to guess a year ago? So what could be the cause? It could be a decrease of the REO entering the market or it could be an increase of the sale activity. We have both. The decrease of the REO could be explained by the government activity, etc, whatever new theory we are coming up with. I think that is quite satisfactory since the NOD is increasing as we expected. But what about the increase of the sale? SoCal has over 50% yoy sale increase right now. In the middle of recession, and the equity market although recovering is still far below its recent high, it is a little bit surprise that the activity is rising so fast instead of dropping right now(note: that it is yoy increase so it should take care of the Spring buying season theory). I don’t have the answer, but maybe someone can come up with a theory to explain that…and then we will be closer to the truth, rather than just keeping insisting that the world is going to end like many of R.T.66’s post. His/her post is entertaining, but I don’t learn anything new from reading his/her post, because that theory was thrown at us years ago, wasn’t it?

One last note: it is very easy to dismiss the data that you don’t like to see. Some of it can be statistical abnormalty. It takes a lot of work to get through the data to dismiss theory though…as Rich has shown through his excellent analysis of the “rent bubble” theory.[/quote]

I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]
I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.
[/quote]

Life is not complex. We are complex. Life is simple, and the simple thing is the right thing.
– Oscar Wilde

Sometimes it’s hard to take a step back and see the obvious, I like your theory, it takes me 700 words to say the same thing, even then it is convoluted, brevity is not my strong suit.

SD, I thought you’d like the laker’s analogy, it was intended that way.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]
I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.
[/quote]

Life is not complex. We are complex. Life is simple, and the simple thing is the right thing.
– Oscar Wilde

Sometimes it’s hard to take a step back and see the obvious, I like your theory, it takes me 700 words to say the same thing, even then it is convoluted, brevity is not my strong suit.

SD, I thought you’d like the laker’s analogy, it was intended that way.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]
I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.
[/quote]

Life is not complex. We are complex. Life is simple, and the simple thing is the right thing.
– Oscar Wilde

Sometimes it’s hard to take a step back and see the obvious, I like your theory, it takes me 700 words to say the same thing, even then it is convoluted, brevity is not my strong suit.

SD, I thought you’d like the laker’s analogy, it was intended that way.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]
I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.
[/quote]

Life is not complex. We are complex. Life is simple, and the simple thing is the right thing.
– Oscar Wilde

Sometimes it’s hard to take a step back and see the obvious, I like your theory, it takes me 700 words to say the same thing, even then it is convoluted, brevity is not my strong suit.

SD, I thought you’d like the laker’s analogy, it was intended that way.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]
I have a simple theory. Homes are much more affordable than they have been in a long time.
[/quote]

Life is not complex. We are complex. Life is simple, and the simple thing is the right thing.
– Oscar Wilde

Sometimes it’s hard to take a step back and see the obvious, I like your theory, it takes me 700 words to say the same thing, even then it is convoluted, brevity is not my strong suit.

SD, I thought you’d like the laker’s analogy, it was intended that way.

[scaredyclassic]

it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.

[scaredyclassic]

it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.

[scaredyclassic]

it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.

[scaredyclassic]

it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.

[scaredyclassic]

it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.

[peterb]

Theories should have some analytical basis as support. Consider the logic, place your bets. History may not exactly repeat itself, but it sure does tend to rhyme.
Here’s a couple that I find compelling:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-16.pdf

[peterb]

Theories should have some analytical basis as support. Consider the logic, place your bets. History may not exactly repeat itself, but it sure does tend to rhyme.
Here’s a couple that I find compelling:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-16.pdf

[peterb]

Theories should have some analytical basis as support. Consider the logic, place your bets. History may not exactly repeat itself, but it sure does tend to rhyme.
Here’s a couple that I find compelling:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-16.pdf

[peterb]

Theories should have some analytical basis as support. Consider the logic, place your bets. History may not exactly repeat itself, but it sure does tend to rhyme.
Here’s a couple that I find compelling:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-16.pdf

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