Question for the bulls

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

It all boils down to this …

Precisely how many is many ?

The dictionary says that it is a large indefinite number. Therefore, by definition we cannot define the exactly number that must be exceeded to reach “many.”

Therefore, one would have to conclude that the statement sdr made using the term “many” could never unambiguously be proven true.

Also, I don’t think many people care.
But I can’t prove it.

[sdrealtor]

Too funny! The quote he’s attacking me on wasnt even made by me. LOL

You are grasping at pathetic straws now on micro issues. The macro issue is that the deluge of shadow inventory has been and likely will continue to be a myth for numerous reasons. A major collpase in prices in the short term (i.e. next year) is unlikely.

[sdrealtor]

Too funny! The quote he’s attacking me on wasnt even made by me. LOL

You are grasping at pathetic straws now on micro issues. The macro issue is that the deluge of shadow inventory has been and likely will continue to be a myth for numerous reasons. A major collpase in prices in the short term (i.e. next year) is unlikely.

[sdrealtor]

Too funny! The quote he’s attacking me on wasnt even made by me. LOL

You are grasping at pathetic straws now on micro issues. The macro issue is that the deluge of shadow inventory has been and likely will continue to be a myth for numerous reasons. A major collpase in prices in the short term (i.e. next year) is unlikely.

[sdrealtor]

Too funny! The quote he’s attacking me on wasnt even made by me. LOL

You are grasping at pathetic straws now on micro issues. The macro issue is that the deluge of shadow inventory has been and likely will continue to be a myth for numerous reasons. A major collpase in prices in the short term (i.e. next year) is unlikely.

[sdrealtor]

Too funny! The quote he’s attacking me on wasnt even made by me. LOL

You are grasping at pathetic straws now on micro issues. The macro issue is that the deluge of shadow inventory has been and likely will continue to be a myth for numerous reasons. A major collpase in prices in the short term (i.e. next year) is unlikely.

[Rt.66]

Here is a report that supports my argument and shows that not only does SD have a BIG shadow inventory problem…… it is in fact the second worse market in the country for shadow overhang.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

It is yet another report that makes no mention of this fantasy of seconds playing even a tiny role in the shadow market. Because 2nds do not, and it’s such a dumb theory that no one else dares suggest it.

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

Here is a report that supports my argument and shows that not only does SD have a BIG shadow inventory problem…… it is in fact the second worse market in the country for shadow overhang.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

It is yet another report that makes no mention of this fantasy of seconds playing even a tiny role in the shadow market. Because 2nds do not, and it’s such a dumb theory that no one else dares suggest it.

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

Here is a report that supports my argument and shows that not only does SD have a BIG shadow inventory problem…… it is in fact the second worse market in the country for shadow overhang.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

It is yet another report that makes no mention of this fantasy of seconds playing even a tiny role in the shadow market. Because 2nds do not, and it’s such a dumb theory that no one else dares suggest it.

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

Here is a report that supports my argument and shows that not only does SD have a BIG shadow inventory problem…… it is in fact the second worse market in the country for shadow overhang.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

It is yet another report that makes no mention of this fantasy of seconds playing even a tiny role in the shadow market. Because 2nds do not, and it’s such a dumb theory that no one else dares suggest it.

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

Here is a report that supports my argument and shows that not only does SD have a BIG shadow inventory problem…… it is in fact the second worse market in the country for shadow overhang.

Exhibit 4: Number of Real Estate Listings within 10 Miles of S&P/CS 20 Cities

1st line = CITY

2nd line = LISTINGS REO

3rd line = LISTINGS AUCTION

4th = NOTICE OF DEFAULT

5th = Total Shadow Inventory

6th line = Total Inventory

7th = Inventory ÷ Actual Listings

Las Vegas, NV
16,765
16,835
14,879
21,135
52,849
69,614
415.2%
San Diego, CA
10,416
5,603
7,727
11,548
24,878
35,294
338.8%
Los Angeles, CA
43,050
16,706
26,789
37,894
81,389
124,439
289.1%
San Francisco, CA
4,176
1,856
2,265
3,355
7,476
11,652
279.0%
Phoenix, AZ
25,340
14,091
30,777
0
44,868
70,208
277.1%
Denver, CO
17,730
3,020
10,867
1
13,888
31,618
178.3%
Detroit, MI
21,396
10,720
5,202
1
15,923
37,319
174.4%
Tampa, FL
24,235
1,198
1,388
13,712
16,298
40,533
167.2%
Minneapolis, MN
8,533
2,296
3,420
0
5,716
14,249
167.0%
Portland, OR
12,673
2,130
5,976
0
8,106
20,779
164.0%
Chicago, IL
42,698
1,317
7,808
16,787
25,912
68,610
160.7%
Miami, FL
35,489
2,373
4,499
12,808
19,680
55,169
155.5%
Atlanta, GA
28,638
6,692
7,883
1
14,576
43,214
150.9%

It is yet another report that makes no mention of this fantasy of seconds playing even a tiny role in the shadow market. Because 2nds do not, and it’s such a dumb theory that no one else dares suggest it.

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-content/3q09/Amherst%20Mortgage%20Insight%2009232009.pdf?ref=patrick.net

[Rt.66]

This sounds bad for SD mid and upper markets:

“75% of option-ARM holders are paying less than the full interest charges on their mortgages, with the difference added to principal that they must start paying on reset. The pain could be especially acute next summer, when the dollar value of option-ARM and Alt-A loans resetting will be double the amount it was last August.

“The less-than-interest option attracted everyone but especially business owners who wanted more capital and people moving to wealthy areas who couldn’t otherwise afford to,” says Mark Hanson of real estate consultancy M. Hanson Advisors. Within 10 miles of Mill Valley in wealthy Marin County, Calif., 35% of 600 homes in foreclosure (average appraised value: $860,000; average net equity: -$98,000) were financed with option-ARM loans, Hanson says. This time next year, he adds, “time bombs will be going off everywhere.”

Most vulnerable are rich towns in California and Florida, where more than half of these loans reside.”

http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/07/real-estate-mortgages-foreclosures-personal-finance-crisis.html

[Rt.66]

This sounds bad for SD mid and upper markets:

“75% of option-ARM holders are paying less than the full interest charges on their mortgages, with the difference added to principal that they must start paying on reset. The pain could be especially acute next summer, when the dollar value of option-ARM and Alt-A loans resetting will be double the amount it was last August.

“The less-than-interest option attracted everyone but especially business owners who wanted more capital and people moving to wealthy areas who couldn’t otherwise afford to,” says Mark Hanson of real estate consultancy M. Hanson Advisors. Within 10 miles of Mill Valley in wealthy Marin County, Calif., 35% of 600 homes in foreclosure (average appraised value: $860,000; average net equity: -$98,000) were financed with option-ARM loans, Hanson says. This time next year, he adds, “time bombs will be going off everywhere.”

Most vulnerable are rich towns in California and Florida, where more than half of these loans reside.”

http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/07/real-estate-mortgages-foreclosures-personal-finance-crisis.html

[Rt.66]

This sounds bad for SD mid and upper markets:

“75% of option-ARM holders are paying less than the full interest charges on their mortgages, with the difference added to principal that they must start paying on reset. The pain could be especially acute next summer, when the dollar value of option-ARM and Alt-A loans resetting will be double the amount it was last August.

“The less-than-interest option attracted everyone but especially business owners who wanted more capital and people moving to wealthy areas who couldn’t otherwise afford to,” says Mark Hanson of real estate consultancy M. Hanson Advisors. Within 10 miles of Mill Valley in wealthy Marin County, Calif., 35% of 600 homes in foreclosure (average appraised value: $860,000; average net equity: -$98,000) were financed with option-ARM loans, Hanson says. This time next year, he adds, “time bombs will be going off everywhere.”

Most vulnerable are rich towns in California and Florida, where more than half of these loans reside.”

http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/07/real-estate-mortgages-foreclosures-personal-finance-crisis.html

[Rt.66]

This sounds bad for SD mid and upper markets:

“75% of option-ARM holders are paying less than the full interest charges on their mortgages, with the difference added to principal that they must start paying on reset. The pain could be especially acute next summer, when the dollar value of option-ARM and Alt-A loans resetting will be double the amount it was last August.

“The less-than-interest option attracted everyone but especially business owners who wanted more capital and people moving to wealthy areas who couldn’t otherwise afford to,” says Mark Hanson of real estate consultancy M. Hanson Advisors. Within 10 miles of Mill Valley in wealthy Marin County, Calif., 35% of 600 homes in foreclosure (average appraised value: $860,000; average net equity: -$98,000) were financed with option-ARM loans, Hanson says. This time next year, he adds, “time bombs will be going off everywhere.”

Most vulnerable are rich towns in California and Florida, where more than half of these loans reside.”

http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/07/real-estate-mortgages-foreclosures-personal-finance-crisis.html

[Author]

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