Question for the bulls

[nocommonsense]

Let the deep pockets buy up all the houses on the market. See if I care. I just know that prebubble a blue collar family could afford the house I’m renting now, which now I can barely afford buying with a sinx-figure income and 200K cash. This picture is simply wrong and can’t go on for long no matter what the “experts” say.

What’s more, I wouldn’t even WANT to own the shabby house we’re living in for half the price!

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[SD Realtor]

DW and nocommon –

I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.

I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.

I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….

DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.

I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=nocommonsense]Let the deep pockets buy up all the houses on the market. See if I care. I just know that prebubble a blue collar family could afford the house I’m renting now, which now I can barely afford buying with a sinx-figure income and 200K cash. This picture is simply wrong and can’t go on for long no matter what the “experts” say.

What’s more, I wouldn’t even WANT to own the shabby house we’re living in for half the price![/quote]

I’m with you. I pretty much despise the housing stock that’s in our price range, especially when we have to factor in schools for our children. We have looked at about 85 homes over a 2-year-plus period. I guess I should go FHA/3.5 or ignore any <31 percent of income goal BS.

Still, you might be overstating the prebubble affordability. I'm thinking of one of Rich's items from not too far back.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=nocommonsense]Let the deep pockets buy up all the houses on the market. See if I care. I just know that prebubble a blue collar family could afford the house I’m renting now, which now I can barely afford buying with a sinx-figure income and 200K cash. This picture is simply wrong and can’t go on for long no matter what the “experts” say.

What’s more, I wouldn’t even WANT to own the shabby house we’re living in for half the price![/quote]

I’m with you. I pretty much despise the housing stock that’s in our price range, especially when we have to factor in schools for our children. We have looked at about 85 homes over a 2-year-plus period. I guess I should go FHA/3.5 or ignore any <31 percent of income goal BS.

Still, you might be overstating the prebubble affordability. I'm thinking of one of Rich's items from not too far back.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=nocommonsense]Let the deep pockets buy up all the houses on the market. See if I care. I just know that prebubble a blue collar family could afford the house I’m renting now, which now I can barely afford buying with a sinx-figure income and 200K cash. This picture is simply wrong and can’t go on for long no matter what the “experts” say.

What’s more, I wouldn’t even WANT to own the shabby house we’re living in for half the price![/quote]

I’m with you. I pretty much despise the housing stock that’s in our price range, especially when we have to factor in schools for our children. We have looked at about 85 homes over a 2-year-plus period. I guess I should go FHA/3.5 or ignore any <31 percent of income goal BS.

Still, you might be overstating the prebubble affordability. I'm thinking of one of Rich's items from not too far back.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=nocommonsense]Let the deep pockets buy up all the houses on the market. See if I care. I just know that prebubble a blue collar family could afford the house I’m renting now, which now I can barely afford buying with a sinx-figure income and 200K cash. This picture is simply wrong and can’t go on for long no matter what the “experts” say.

What’s more, I wouldn’t even WANT to own the shabby house we’re living in for half the price![/quote]

I’m with you. I pretty much despise the housing stock that’s in our price range, especially when we have to factor in schools for our children. We have looked at about 85 homes over a 2-year-plus period. I guess I should go FHA/3.5 or ignore any <31 percent of income goal BS.

Still, you might be overstating the prebubble affordability. I'm thinking of one of Rich's items from not too far back.

[smshorttimer]

[quote=nocommonsense]Let the deep pockets buy up all the houses on the market. See if I care. I just know that prebubble a blue collar family could afford the house I’m renting now, which now I can barely afford buying with a sinx-figure income and 200K cash. This picture is simply wrong and can’t go on for long no matter what the “experts” say.

What’s more, I wouldn’t even WANT to own the shabby house we’re living in for half the price![/quote]

I’m with you. I pretty much despise the housing stock that’s in our price range, especially when we have to factor in schools for our children. We have looked at about 85 homes over a 2-year-plus period. I guess I should go FHA/3.5 or ignore any <31 percent of income goal BS.

Still, you might be overstating the prebubble affordability. I'm thinking of one of Rich's items from not too far back.

[Ren]

I was talking with the MIL about all-cash flippers reselling for big profits, and she freaked a little, saying they should all go to “their own special level of hell”. This was a bit of a surprise, and after telling her that I would be doing exactly the same thing if I had the money, I explained that A) the flippers get their profit, B) the bank gets a loan, and C) the little guy gets a home. Everyone’s happy, so where’s the harm? She just mumbled something about “evil” and didn’t really have an answer.

I’m a little guy also, and I really don’t see the big deal in paying list price for a place, as long as it’s reasonable compared to rents. I just put in an offer on a really great Temecula place for $120/sf. That’s high compared to last year, and yeah I would be “overpaying”, but still so ridiculously affordable that there’s really no reason to bitch about it. I couldn’t rent an equivalent place in SD for $1,000/month more.

[Ren]

I was talking with the MIL about all-cash flippers reselling for big profits, and she freaked a little, saying they should all go to “their own special level of hell”. This was a bit of a surprise, and after telling her that I would be doing exactly the same thing if I had the money, I explained that A) the flippers get their profit, B) the bank gets a loan, and C) the little guy gets a home. Everyone’s happy, so where’s the harm? She just mumbled something about “evil” and didn’t really have an answer.

I’m a little guy also, and I really don’t see the big deal in paying list price for a place, as long as it’s reasonable compared to rents. I just put in an offer on a really great Temecula place for $120/sf. That’s high compared to last year, and yeah I would be “overpaying”, but still so ridiculously affordable that there’s really no reason to bitch about it. I couldn’t rent an equivalent place in SD for $1,000/month more.

[Ren]

I was talking with the MIL about all-cash flippers reselling for big profits, and she freaked a little, saying they should all go to “their own special level of hell”. This was a bit of a surprise, and after telling her that I would be doing exactly the same thing if I had the money, I explained that A) the flippers get their profit, B) the bank gets a loan, and C) the little guy gets a home. Everyone’s happy, so where’s the harm? She just mumbled something about “evil” and didn’t really have an answer.

I’m a little guy also, and I really don’t see the big deal in paying list price for a place, as long as it’s reasonable compared to rents. I just put in an offer on a really great Temecula place for $120/sf. That’s high compared to last year, and yeah I would be “overpaying”, but still so ridiculously affordable that there’s really no reason to bitch about it. I couldn’t rent an equivalent place in SD for $1,000/month more.

[Ren]

I was talking with the MIL about all-cash flippers reselling for big profits, and she freaked a little, saying they should all go to “their own special level of hell”. This was a bit of a surprise, and after telling her that I would be doing exactly the same thing if I had the money, I explained that A) the flippers get their profit, B) the bank gets a loan, and C) the little guy gets a home. Everyone’s happy, so where’s the harm? She just mumbled something about “evil” and didn’t really have an answer.

I’m a little guy also, and I really don’t see the big deal in paying list price for a place, as long as it’s reasonable compared to rents. I just put in an offer on a really great Temecula place for $120/sf. That’s high compared to last year, and yeah I would be “overpaying”, but still so ridiculously affordable that there’s really no reason to bitch about it. I couldn’t rent an equivalent place in SD for $1,000/month more.

[Author]

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