Question for the bulls

[sdrealtor]

CAR
Just got an email on a bulk sale opportunity in NCC. I’m too busy to f/u but I thought you might be interested in invesitgating it. Will send more information via private message.

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
I’d bet a vast majority of NODs are not from seconds at all but mostly from first mortgage holders.[/quote]

I don’t know about all areas, but in the 10+ ZIPs I watch, I come across very few seconds, judging from the dollar amounts of the NODs. Now I have come across a handful of NODs, emphasize handful, that are first AND seconds (one in PB by Armstrong comes to mind – 1st and 2nd for close to same amount 400k something). I have seen multiple NODs for the first on a handful of properties, some that got their first NOD sometime last year and just got the can kicked to get another NOD. I think I’ve only seen one NOD on a second that was a low dollar amount (100k) on a very pricey house in LJ, if I remember right. First didn’t file a NOD yet.

[quote=CA renter]Are the bulls asserting that there is no “shadow inventory” at all, or are they saying that it just isn’t on the market right now, and may take a long time to get there. Two very different things, no? [/quote]

Yes. I think we can all agree there is shadow inventory out there. I think that for now much of that is in limbo and how it will get absorbed or to use sdr’s word, the disposition of them is what is in question. Clearly the government doesn’t want this to be fast. We are going down the slow road.

In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak. This is going to take a long while. Maybe by then inflation will hit. Maybe that’s their game plan. People that somehow don’t get foreclosed will be trapped in their house destined to be mortgage slaves.

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
I’d bet a vast majority of NODs are not from seconds at all but mostly from first mortgage holders.[/quote]

I don’t know about all areas, but in the 10+ ZIPs I watch, I come across very few seconds, judging from the dollar amounts of the NODs. Now I have come across a handful of NODs, emphasize handful, that are first AND seconds (one in PB by Armstrong comes to mind – 1st and 2nd for close to same amount 400k something). I have seen multiple NODs for the first on a handful of properties, some that got their first NOD sometime last year and just got the can kicked to get another NOD. I think I’ve only seen one NOD on a second that was a low dollar amount (100k) on a very pricey house in LJ, if I remember right. First didn’t file a NOD yet.

[quote=CA renter]Are the bulls asserting that there is no “shadow inventory” at all, or are they saying that it just isn’t on the market right now, and may take a long time to get there. Two very different things, no? [/quote]

Yes. I think we can all agree there is shadow inventory out there. I think that for now much of that is in limbo and how it will get absorbed or to use sdr’s word, the disposition of them is what is in question. Clearly the government doesn’t want this to be fast. We are going down the slow road.

In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak. This is going to take a long while. Maybe by then inflation will hit. Maybe that’s their game plan. People that somehow don’t get foreclosed will be trapped in their house destined to be mortgage slaves.

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
I’d bet a vast majority of NODs are not from seconds at all but mostly from first mortgage holders.[/quote]

I don’t know about all areas, but in the 10+ ZIPs I watch, I come across very few seconds, judging from the dollar amounts of the NODs. Now I have come across a handful of NODs, emphasize handful, that are first AND seconds (one in PB by Armstrong comes to mind – 1st and 2nd for close to same amount 400k something). I have seen multiple NODs for the first on a handful of properties, some that got their first NOD sometime last year and just got the can kicked to get another NOD. I think I’ve only seen one NOD on a second that was a low dollar amount (100k) on a very pricey house in LJ, if I remember right. First didn’t file a NOD yet.

[quote=CA renter]Are the bulls asserting that there is no “shadow inventory” at all, or are they saying that it just isn’t on the market right now, and may take a long time to get there. Two very different things, no? [/quote]

Yes. I think we can all agree there is shadow inventory out there. I think that for now much of that is in limbo and how it will get absorbed or to use sdr’s word, the disposition of them is what is in question. Clearly the government doesn’t want this to be fast. We are going down the slow road.

In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak. This is going to take a long while. Maybe by then inflation will hit. Maybe that’s their game plan. People that somehow don’t get foreclosed will be trapped in their house destined to be mortgage slaves.

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
I’d bet a vast majority of NODs are not from seconds at all but mostly from first mortgage holders.[/quote]

I don’t know about all areas, but in the 10+ ZIPs I watch, I come across very few seconds, judging from the dollar amounts of the NODs. Now I have come across a handful of NODs, emphasize handful, that are first AND seconds (one in PB by Armstrong comes to mind – 1st and 2nd for close to same amount 400k something). I have seen multiple NODs for the first on a handful of properties, some that got their first NOD sometime last year and just got the can kicked to get another NOD. I think I’ve only seen one NOD on a second that was a low dollar amount (100k) on a very pricey house in LJ, if I remember right. First didn’t file a NOD yet.

[quote=CA renter]Are the bulls asserting that there is no “shadow inventory” at all, or are they saying that it just isn’t on the market right now, and may take a long time to get there. Two very different things, no? [/quote]

Yes. I think we can all agree there is shadow inventory out there. I think that for now much of that is in limbo and how it will get absorbed or to use sdr’s word, the disposition of them is what is in question. Clearly the government doesn’t want this to be fast. We are going down the slow road.

In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak. This is going to take a long while. Maybe by then inflation will hit. Maybe that’s their game plan. People that somehow don’t get foreclosed will be trapped in their house destined to be mortgage slaves.

[jpinpb]

[quote=Rt.66]
I’d bet a vast majority of NODs are not from seconds at all but mostly from first mortgage holders.[/quote]

I don’t know about all areas, but in the 10+ ZIPs I watch, I come across very few seconds, judging from the dollar amounts of the NODs. Now I have come across a handful of NODs, emphasize handful, that are first AND seconds (one in PB by Armstrong comes to mind – 1st and 2nd for close to same amount 400k something). I have seen multiple NODs for the first on a handful of properties, some that got their first NOD sometime last year and just got the can kicked to get another NOD. I think I’ve only seen one NOD on a second that was a low dollar amount (100k) on a very pricey house in LJ, if I remember right. First didn’t file a NOD yet.

[quote=CA renter]Are the bulls asserting that there is no “shadow inventory” at all, or are they saying that it just isn’t on the market right now, and may take a long time to get there. Two very different things, no? [/quote]

Yes. I think we can all agree there is shadow inventory out there. I think that for now much of that is in limbo and how it will get absorbed or to use sdr’s word, the disposition of them is what is in question. Clearly the government doesn’t want this to be fast. We are going down the slow road.

In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak. This is going to take a long while. Maybe by then inflation will hit. Maybe that’s their game plan. People that somehow don’t get foreclosed will be trapped in their house destined to be mortgage slaves.

[an]

[quote=jpinpb]
In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak.[/quote]
Per my poll here a few days ago, most of us are not expecting price to be back above peak price for another 15+ years.

[an]

[quote=jpinpb]
In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak.[/quote]
Per my poll here a few days ago, most of us are not expecting price to be back above peak price for another 15+ years.

[an]

[quote=jpinpb]
In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak.[/quote]
Per my poll here a few days ago, most of us are not expecting price to be back above peak price for another 15+ years.

[an]

[quote=jpinpb]
In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak.[/quote]
Per my poll here a few days ago, most of us are not expecting price to be back above peak price for another 15+ years.

[an]

[quote=jpinpb]
In the interim, prices are declining, just at a slower pace. I have seen a few that sold higher than asking, but still lower than peak.[/quote]
Per my poll here a few days ago, most of us are not expecting price to be back above peak price for another 15+ years.

[Arraya]

If somebody felt inclined they could take delinquency rates, default numbers and sales and come up with a rough idea of how shadow inventory is trending. From a casual glance at the steady increase in delinquency rates and fluctuation of sales and defaults you can see that unabsorbed properties are bottle necking. Basically, the shadow inventory is growing, if anything.

On top of that around 45% of mortgage holders are underwater. Close to 300,000. Huge default risk. Loan Mods have a >50% change of re-defaulting.

Around 25% of mortgage holders are in some form of distress. Around 150,000 or so.

Given the statistical default rate of distressed mortgages coupled with the default risk of mortgages underwater, there is immense downward pressure that is not stopping anything soon.

Therefor, the only argument for a stabilizing market is unprecedented manipulation and public money thrown at a deteriorating problem. Fed intervention can not stop, in fact they have to increase based on the trends, just to maintain.

It’s not really a “market” to analyze. It’s a theoretical experiment with lots of hidden information, that nobody quite knows what will happen.

[Arraya]

If somebody felt inclined they could take delinquency rates, default numbers and sales and come up with a rough idea of how shadow inventory is trending. From a casual glance at the steady increase in delinquency rates and fluctuation of sales and defaults you can see that unabsorbed properties are bottle necking. Basically, the shadow inventory is growing, if anything.

On top of that around 45% of mortgage holders are underwater. Close to 300,000. Huge default risk. Loan Mods have a >50% change of re-defaulting.

Around 25% of mortgage holders are in some form of distress. Around 150,000 or so.

Given the statistical default rate of distressed mortgages coupled with the default risk of mortgages underwater, there is immense downward pressure that is not stopping anything soon.

Therefor, the only argument for a stabilizing market is unprecedented manipulation and public money thrown at a deteriorating problem. Fed intervention can not stop, in fact they have to increase based on the trends, just to maintain.

It’s not really a “market” to analyze. It’s a theoretical experiment with lots of hidden information, that nobody quite knows what will happen.

[Arraya]

If somebody felt inclined they could take delinquency rates, default numbers and sales and come up with a rough idea of how shadow inventory is trending. From a casual glance at the steady increase in delinquency rates and fluctuation of sales and defaults you can see that unabsorbed properties are bottle necking. Basically, the shadow inventory is growing, if anything.

On top of that around 45% of mortgage holders are underwater. Close to 300,000. Huge default risk. Loan Mods have a >50% change of re-defaulting.

Around 25% of mortgage holders are in some form of distress. Around 150,000 or so.

Given the statistical default rate of distressed mortgages coupled with the default risk of mortgages underwater, there is immense downward pressure that is not stopping anything soon.

Therefor, the only argument for a stabilizing market is unprecedented manipulation and public money thrown at a deteriorating problem. Fed intervention can not stop, in fact they have to increase based on the trends, just to maintain.

It’s not really a “market” to analyze. It’s a theoretical experiment with lots of hidden information, that nobody quite knows what will happen.

[Arraya]

If somebody felt inclined they could take delinquency rates, default numbers and sales and come up with a rough idea of how shadow inventory is trending. From a casual glance at the steady increase in delinquency rates and fluctuation of sales and defaults you can see that unabsorbed properties are bottle necking. Basically, the shadow inventory is growing, if anything.

On top of that around 45% of mortgage holders are underwater. Close to 300,000. Huge default risk. Loan Mods have a >50% change of re-defaulting.

Around 25% of mortgage holders are in some form of distress. Around 150,000 or so.

Given the statistical default rate of distressed mortgages coupled with the default risk of mortgages underwater, there is immense downward pressure that is not stopping anything soon.

Therefor, the only argument for a stabilizing market is unprecedented manipulation and public money thrown at a deteriorating problem. Fed intervention can not stop, in fact they have to increase based on the trends, just to maintain.

It’s not really a “market” to analyze. It’s a theoretical experiment with lots of hidden information, that nobody quite knows what will happen.

[Author]

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