Q2 ’07 GDP

[Anonymous]

POZ, very nice analogy.

Just add some “Divine intervention directs the lightning…” or “Just desserts for sinful living results in…” to bring it to bulletproof.

[Anonymous]

POZ, very nice analogy.

Just add some “Divine intervention directs the lightning…” or “Just desserts for sinful living results in…” to bring it to bulletproof.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think you are right jg. I don’t think I would wager a beer that this quarter’s GDP will be above 2.

Also, I think the estimates in the range of 2.8 -3.8% for the year are in fantasy land. 1Q’07 was teetering close to zero. We will need a roaring second half to get in the 3+ % range. Don’t see it happening.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think you are right jg. I don’t think I would wager a beer that this quarter’s GDP will be above 2.

Also, I think the estimates in the range of 2.8 -3.8% for the year are in fantasy land. 1Q’07 was teetering close to zero. We will need a roaring second half to get in the 3+ % range. Don’t see it happening.

[davelj]

I would love to see a recession. I would equally love to see GDP come in at less than 1% this quarter. But here’s what could happen in the short term: the markets would continue to climb on the hopes that weakness would lead to lower interest rates. That’s where we are right now: good news is good news (for earnings) and bad news is good news (for interest rates). And it’s going to remain that way until the market thinks earnings are actually going to be less than projected. If the market sees little negative impact on earnings (from a slowing economy) while interest rates decline, the market will continue to climb. I, for one, would like to see considerably lower prices for most assets, as I think we’re considerably out of equilibrium. I’m in Jeremy Grantham’s camp on this issue.

[davelj]

I would love to see a recession. I would equally love to see GDP come in at less than 1% this quarter. But here’s what could happen in the short term: the markets would continue to climb on the hopes that weakness would lead to lower interest rates. That’s where we are right now: good news is good news (for earnings) and bad news is good news (for interest rates). And it’s going to remain that way until the market thinks earnings are actually going to be less than projected. If the market sees little negative impact on earnings (from a slowing economy) while interest rates decline, the market will continue to climb. I, for one, would like to see considerably lower prices for most assets, as I think we’re considerably out of equilibrium. I’m in Jeremy Grantham’s camp on this issue.

[kewp]

Is it to prove yourself correct, or do you just want to see people suffering?

You mean people, like the legions of obese Americans, driving their SUV’s to WalMart and loading up on cheap Chinese crap? Paid for with a credit card?

What a tragedy. Won’t someone think of the children?

America needs to go on a diet. A *big* one.

[kewp]

Is it to prove yourself correct, or do you just want to see people suffering?

You mean people, like the legions of obese Americans, driving their SUV’s to WalMart and loading up on cheap Chinese crap? Paid for with a credit card?

What a tragedy. Won’t someone think of the children?

America needs to go on a diet. A *big* one.

[Anonymous]

I just went through my calculations for Q2 ’07 GDP, and forecast growth of 0.3%. Currently, on the MarketWatch economic releases page, analysts project growth to come in at 2.8-3.8%.

If anyone would like to wager a beer for payment at the next get together/lk ‘floorshow’, please do propose.

[Anonymous]

I just went through my calculations for Q2 ’07 GDP, and forecast growth of 0.3%. Currently, on the MarketWatch economic releases page, analysts project growth to come in at 2.8-3.8%.

If anyone would like to wager a beer for payment at the next get together/lk ‘floorshow’, please do propose.

[HereWeGo]

I’m still in on that bet, jg.

[HereWeGo]

I’m still in on that bet, jg.

[Author]

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